经济月报（2022年3月）

MONTHLYECONOMICBULLETIN March 2022 andwarriskhavecastashadowoverreopening China Economic activity picked up but headwinds could hinderfurther growthSlowdown in global economy triggered by Ukraine crisis willhurt China’s economic growth, gains from Russia’s pivot toChina may be limitedNPC’s 2022 targets for China reflect greater focus on growththan stability, which would help to mitigate risks EuropeFaster -than-expected recovery now at riskdue to Russia-Ukraine conflictManageable threats to trade but shocks toenergy and banking sectors could shake theeconomyStagflation fears prompt ECB to exitpandemic stimulus sooner and mull first ratehike by year-end to address rising inflation US Japan Rising prices and Russia tension couldchallenge post-OmicronrecoveryUS economy would be hit through highercommodity prices rather than supplyshortageThe Fed sees curbing inflation will be apriority and there would be the ratehikes at each of its remaining meetingsthis year Post-Omicronrecovery trajectory couldbe delayed by Ukraine crisisWar and sanctions is pressuring Japanbecause it is a net oil importer; Otherimpacts could be supply chaindisruption and risk to its financial sector GlobalPMIandMobilityIndexreflectrecoveryfromOmicronbutUkrainecrisishaspushedupcommodityprices,disruptedsupplychains,shakensentiment,andsloweddownrecovery War in Ukraine, tougher sanctions, and more retaliatory measures increase concerns overinflation and economic growth, raised risk of global stagflation The war in Ukraine is"a catastrophe" for the worldwhich will cut global economicgrowth, said the World Bank. The ongoing war and associatedsanctions will also have “a severeimpact” on the global economy,said the IMF.We think that we would bedowngrading our growthprojections as a result of the crisis.The most significant threat to theworld economy was greaterinflation…Worsening financial conditions andbusiness confidence also have thepotential to weigh on growth. Russia’s GDP is only the 12th largest in the world, about 25% smallerthan Italy.However, Russian energy exports are important as it is the world’ssecond largest exporter of natural gas and one of the largestexporters of oil.Russia produces 10% of global oil and supplies 40% of Europe's gas.It is the world's largest grains andfertiliserexporter, top palladiumand nickel producer, third-largest exporter of coal and of steel, andfifth-largest wood exporter.Cutting off those exports could drive upenergy and other commodity prices. Russiatensioncouldchallengepost-omicronrecovery USeconomyhasimprovedsincethefirstomicronoutbreak.ManufacturingPMIinchedupinFebruary,ledbyneworders.Economicactivityintheservicessectorexpandedforthe21stmonthinarow.Firmscontinuetobehurtbysupplychaindisruptions,logisticaljams,andinflation,whichhaveaffectedtheirabilitytomeetdemand.RestaurantandtravelindustrieswerekeyrecoverydriversasomicroncasesdeclinedSame-storesalesremainedabovepre-pandemiclevelsandimproved14.1%YoYinearly-Marchdrivenbytheonlinechannel,reflectingstrongconsumerspendingdespiteomicron.Travellingactivityalsoimprovedsignificantly.Forbusinesses,newordersfordurablegoodsrose15.6%YoYinJanuary,reflectingastrongstarttoinvestmentspending.And,businessescontinuedtohiremoreworkers,particularlyintheservicessectorasnon-farmpayrollsincreasedby678kinFebruaryandunemploymentratefell.Althoughtheeconomyisrecovering,thereisnewrisktoinflationandeconomicgrowthfromtheRussia-UkrainetensionFurtherpriceriseswouldpushupcostoflivingandsoftenconsumerdemandahead.Boththewealthiestandpooresthouseholdsreportedlowerconfidenceaboutfuturefinancialprospectsbecauseofinflationarypressure. commoditypricesratherthansupplyshortages TheRussianinvasioninlate-Februarytriggeredwidespreadvolatilityinfinancialmarketsandeconomiesworldwide.TheimpactontheUSeconomywilldifferfromthatinEuropeancountriesbecausetheUShassmallertradeandinvestmentexposuretoRussia.Somedomesticproducerscouldalsogainfromrisingcommoditypricesbecausetheyareabletoproducemore.TheinvasionhaspushedupglobalfoodpricestorecordhighsbecauseRussiaandUkrainearemajorproducersofagriculturalproducts.CurrentdatashowAmericanfarmersplantoreducesoybeanplantinginfavorofcorntobenefitfromhighercornpricesdespitesurgingfertilizercosts.ThebanonRussianoilimportswillaffecttheUSthroughrisingpricesratherthansupplyshortages.HigherUSoilproductioncouldmitigatesomeoftheshortagesbutbusinesseswillfacespikeinproductioncostsandhouseholdswillexperiencehighercostofliving.Inaddition,barringsomeofRussia'sbanksfromtheSWIFTsystemcouldslowliquidityflowstotheeconomyespeciallythroughenergytrade,asmosttransactionsareconductedinUSD.ThiswouldintensifyupwardinflationarypressurewhichcouldprompttheFedtocurbinflation.Lookingahead,preventingRussia’scentralbankfromconductingUSDtransactionswouldnotdiminishthedollar’sreservecurrencystatusbutcouldreduceRussia’sdependenceontheUSD. TheFedseescurbinginflationwillbeapriorityandtherewouldbetheratehikesateachofitsremainingmeetingsthisyearSlowwagegrowthandrisi