经济月报（2022年7月）

MONTHLYECONOMICBULLETIN July 2022 Global: Troubling trade-off between inflation and growth China Despite recovering since reopening, economic growth could befar below official target of 5.5% for this year amid a gloomierglobal outlook and the zero-covid strategyRising number of Covid-19 cases, weak labor market, and risks inthe property sector, suggest China will roll out more stimulus; Lowinflation would allow monetary easing but policy space is limited EuropeEconomy is heading towards stagflation. Weaker sentiment and spending amid fearsof higher inflation and interest rates.Despite recession risk, ECB might continue toraise rates given tight labor market, highinflation, and EUR parity with USD; need tostep up efforts to ease fragmentation risk US Japan In early phase of economic recovery,challenged by new wave of covid cases,global uncertainty, supply disruption,and rising prices & costs.Despite higher inflation and aweakening yen, BOJ is likely to maintainultra-loose monetary policy to helpnurture Japan’s economic recovery. Economic data suggest moderate growthbut activity is above pre-Covid levels.Strong consumption, robust hiring, andrising wages are building up inflation.To quell inflation, Fed might continue withaggressive tightening; slower rate hikes inQ4 and some buffers could help US avert arecession. MajoreconomiescontinuetoslowdowndespiterecoveringeconomicactivityinChina,improvingdeliverytimes,andbettersupplysituation SurveysuggestsUkrainewarwillcontinuetodisruptsupply,moderateresponse;inflationcouldthreateneconomiesmorethangeopoliticalrisks;sentimentisworsening US:Economicdatasuggestmoderategrowthbutactivityisabovepre-Covidlevels;strongconsumption,robusthiring,andrisingwagesarebuildingupinflationarypressure Toquellinflation,Fedmightcontinuewithaggressivetighteningandhikerateby75bpsinJuly;slowerratehikesinQ4andsomebufferscouldhelpUStoavertarecession Eurozone:Economyisheadingtowardsstagflation;weakersentimentandspendingamidfearsofhigherinflationandinterestrates;EUhascuteconomicgrowthforecasts Economic sentiment dropped to a 15-month low in June; consumer confidenceis at its worst since the pandemic, on fears of higher inflation and interest rates Despiterecessionrisk,ECBmightcontinuetoraiseratesgiventightlabormarket,highinflation,andEURparitywithUSD;needtostepupeffortstoeasefragmentationrisk China:Despiterecoveringsincereopening,economicgrowthcouldbefarbelowofficialtargetof5.5%forthisyearamidagloomierglobaloutlookandthezero-covidstrategy EmergingCovid-19cases,weaklabormarketandriskinpropertysectorsuggestmorestimulusahead;lowinflationallowsmonetaryeasingbutpolicyspaceislimited Worst is yet to come; although June jobless rate has dropped to its lowestsince February, at 5.5%, youth jobless rate is at a record high of 19.3% Japan:Servicesactivityhasreboundedsinceliftingcovidrestrictionsbutoverallrecoveryiscappedbynewcases,globaluncertainty,supplydisruption,andhigherprices&costs Services activity marked the third straight month of expansion in June sincelifting covid curbs, but factory activity grew slower despite reopening in China managinginflationorstokingasustainablerecovery KrungsriResearchhasfine-tuned2022GDPgrowthforecastto+3.1%toreflectbetter-than-expectedgrowthin1H22andimprovingtourismactivity,butoverall,economicrecoveryremainsfragile. Thekeyeconomicgrowthdriversin2H22wouldbestrongertourismactivityandrisingpent-updemand,butgrowthwouldbecappedbytheglobaleconomicslowdown,unwindingofstimulus,andhighinflation. Exportscouldseedouble-digitgrowthin1H22,at11%,butmightslowdownto4%in2Hduetotheglobalslowdown.Downsidewouldbelimitedbypriceeffectandtradediversion.ManyindustriesinThailandwouldgainfromaweakerbahtbutthebusinesssectorwouldseelimitedbenefitsanditwouldnotleadtoasubstantialgrowthinoverallexports.Thissuggestsauthoritieswouldnotallowthebahttodepreciatetoomuchintheirattempttoboosttheeconomy;thereshouldbeatrade-offbetweenthebenefitsandcostsofaweakerbaht. Privateinvestmentcouldseeagradualrecovery.Despiteimprovingbusinesssentimentwithreopeningtailwinds,weakmanufacturingproductionwouldcapinvestmentgrowth.ForeignDirectInvestment(FDI)hasturnedtoregisternetinflowsinmanyindustries,includingrubberproducts,chemicalproductsandelectricalequipment.However,externalheadwindscouldlimitgains. Tourismactivitywouldcontinuetoimprove,encouragedbytherelaxationofstrictmeasuresandbordercontrolsaswellasgovernmentmeasurestoboostdomestictourism.Privateconsumptionisalsoimproving,supportedbyreopeningtailwinds,butgrowthwouldbemoderateduetohighercostoflivingandseveralheadwindstherestofthisyear. InflationlookssettokeeprisinginQ3andcouldexceed8%insomemonthsinthequarter. Onpolicyrateoutlook,thefirstratehikecouldhappeninAugust.TheweakerbahtandhighinflationmightpressuretheMPCtohikeratesbutthepacewouldlikelybegradualandslowerthanthatinneighboringcountries. KrungsriResearchForecastsfor2022 Wefine-tuned2022GDPgrowthforecastto+3.1%toreflectbetter-than-expectedgrowthin1H22andimprovingtouri