斯里兰卡发展更新，2025年4月：保持正轨

STAYINGONTRACK SRI LANKA | APRIL 2025 © [2025] The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet:www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarilyreflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does not assumeresponsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use theinformation, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes and otherinformation shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory orthe endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The citation of works authored by others does not mean the World Bank endorsesthe views expressed by those authors or the content of their works. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunitiesof TheWorld Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work maybe reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposesas long asfull attribution to this work is given. Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: “World Bank. [2025]. [STAYING ON TRACK].© World Bank.” Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank,1818H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. Preface TheSriLankaDevelopmentUpdate(SLDU)hastwomainaims.First,itreportsonkeydevelopmentsoverthepast12monthsinSriLanka’seconomy,placestheseinlongertermandglobalcontexts,andupdatestheoutlookforSriLanka’seconomy.Second,theSLDUprovidesamorein-depthexaminationofselectedeconomicandpolicyissues.Itisintendedforawideaudience,includingpolicymakers,businessleaders,financialmarketparticipants,thinktanks,non-governmentalorganizationsandthecommunityofanalystsandprofessionalsinterestedinSriLanka’sevolvingeconomy. TheteamthanksMathewVerghis(RegionalDirector,Prosperity,SouthAsiaRegion),DavidSislen(CountryDirectorforMaldives,NepalandSriLanka),GevorgSargsyan(CountryManager,MaldivesandSriLanka),ShabihAliMohib(PracticeManager,EP),XimenadelCarpio(PracticeManager,Poverty),andArvindNair(ActingProgramLeaderandLeadCountryEconomist,Prosperity)fortheirguidanceandcommentsonthereport.TraceyAnnPlunkettandYasinduAmarasingheprovidedadministrationsupport.RuwaniRajapaksewasresponsibleforthelayout,design,typesetting,andprinting.BuddhiFeelixgeandSamithaSenadheeraledexternaloutreachefforts.Forquestions,pleasecontact:infosrilanka@worldbank.org. TheSLDUwaspreparedbyateamconsistingofShrutiLakhtakia(Economist,EconomicPolicyDepartment(EP))andUdahiruniAtapattu(ResearchAnalyst,EP),withinputsfromRichardWalker(SeniorEconomist,EP),AnthonyObeyesekere(SeniorEconomist,EP),KarinaBaba(SeniorFinancialSectorSpecialist,Finance,CompetitivenessandInnovation(FCI)),TasneemDhudhia(YoungProfessional,FCI),MartaSchoch(Economist,Poverty),NandiniKrishnan(LeadEconomist,Poverty),andTilokadeSilva(Consultant,Poverty). ThereportisbasedonpublisheddataavailableonorbeforeMarch18,2025. PhotoCredits: Cover,Context,RecentDevelopments,andOutlook:NazlyAhmed/SriLanka ↗.This report, additional material and previous reports can be found at:www.worldbank.org/sldu Previous editions: ↗.↗.↗.↗.↗.↗.↗.↗.↗.↗.↗.October 2024: Opening Up to the FutureApril 2024: Bridge to RecoveryOctober 2023: Mobilizing Tax Revenue for a Brighter FutureMarch 2023: Time to ResetOctober2022: Protecting the Poor and Vulnerable in Time of a CrisisApril 2021: The Economic and Poverty Impact of COVID-19February 2019: Demographic Change in Sri LankaJune 2018: More and better jobs for an upper middle-income countryNovember 2017: Creating opportunities and managing risks for sustained growthJune 2017: Unleashing Sri Lanka’s trade potentialOctober 2016: Structural challenges identified in the SCD Connect withus www.worldbank.org/en/country/srilankaWorldBank,@WorldBankSAsia,#SLDU2025worldbanksrilanka@worldbankthe-world-bank Key messages The economy continues to recover, with growth, fiscal balances, and externalbuffers exceeding expectations in 2024. But household incomes, employment,and non-monetary welfare remain well below pre-crisis levels.1 Despite the recovery,medium-term growth is expected to remain modest,reflecting scarring effects of the crisis, structural impediments to growth, andsignificant global economic uncertainties.2 Medium-term growth and poverty reduction prospects hinge on continuedmacroeconomic stability(exchange rate fl