斯里兰卡发展更新，2026年4月：抵御风暴

SRI LANKA| MAY2026 ©2026TheWorldBank1818HStreetNW,WashingtonDC20433Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.org Somerightsreserved ThisworkisaproductofTheWorldBank.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheExecutiveDirectorsofTheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracy,completeness,orcurrencyofthedataincludedinthisworkanddoesnotassumeresponsibilityforanyerrors,omissions,ordiscrepanciesintheinformation,orliabilitywithrespecttotheuseoforfailuretousetheinformation,methods,processes,or conclusions set forth.The boundaries,colors,denominations,links/footnotes and otherinformationshowninthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.ThecitationofworksauthoredbyothersdoesnotmeantheWorldBankendorsestheviewsexpressedbythoseauthorsorthecontentoftheirworks. NothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconstruedorconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesofTheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved. RightsandPermissions Thematerialinthisworkissubjecttocopyright.BecauseTheWorldBankencouragesdisseminationofitsknowledge,thisworkmaybereproduced,inwholeorinpart,fornoncommercialpurposesaslongasfullattributiontothisworkisgiven. Attribution—Pleasecitetheworkasfollows:“WorldBank.2026.SriLankaDevelopmentUpdate.April2026:WeatheringtheStorm.©WorldBank.” Anyqueriesonrightsandlicenses,includingsubsidiaryrights,shouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBank,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;fax:202-522-2625;e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. Preface TheSriLankaDevelopmentUpdate(SLDU)hastwomainaims.First,itreportsonkeydevelopmentsoverthepast12monthsinSriLanka’seconomy,places these in longer term and global contexts,andupdatesthe outlook for Sri Lanka’s economy.Second,the SLDUprovidesa more in-depth examination of selected economic andpolicyissues.It is intended for a wide audience,includingpolicymakers,business leaders,financial market participants,thinktanks,non-governmental organizations and the community ofanalystsand professionals interested in Sri Lanka’s evolvingeconomy. Theteam thanks Sebastian Eckardt(Regional Practice Director,Prosperity,South Asia Region),David Sislen(Division Director forMaldives,NepalandSriLanka),GevorgSargsyan(CountryManager,MaldivesandSriLanka),ShabihAliMohib(PracticeManager,EP),XimenadelCarpio(PracticeManager,DIP),andArvindNair(LeadCountryEconomist,EP)for their guidance and comments on thereport.Tracey Ann Plunkett and Yasindu Amarasinghe providedadministrationsupport.Ruwani Rajapakse was responsible for thelayout,design,typesetting,andprinting.BuddhiFeelixgeandSamithaSenadheeraled external outreach efforts.For questions,pleasecontact:infosrilanka@worldbank.org. TheSLDUwaspreparedbyateam consistingof ShrutiLakhtakia(Economist,Economic Policy Department(EP))and UdahiruniAtapattu(Research Analyst,EP),with inputs from Richard Walker(SeniorEconomist,EP),AnthonyObeyesekere(SeniorEconomist,EP),TatsianaKliatskova(Senior Financial Sector Economist,Finance,CompetitivenessandInnovation(FCI)),NiroshiPerera(Analyst,FCI),NamoosZaheer(Senior Financial Sector Specialist,FCI),MartaSchoch(Economist,Distributional Impact of Policies(DIP)),JaimeEstuardoFernandez Romero(Data Scientist,DECDA),Utz JohannPape(LeadEconomist,DIP),NandiniKrishnan(LeadEconomist,DIP),andTilokadeSilva(Consultant,DIP). ThereportisbasedonpublisheddataavailableonorbeforeMarch29,2026. PhotoCredits: Cover: Nazly Ahmed; Context: RuwanWalpola;Recent Developments and Outlook: ThilinaKaluthotage Previous editions: ↗.↗.↗.↗.↗.↗.↗.↗.↗.↗.October 2025: Better Spending for AllApril 2025: Staying on TrackOctober 2024: Opening Up to the FutureApril 2024: Bridge to RecoveryOctober 2023: Mobilizing Tax Revenue for a Brighter FutureApril2023: Time to ResetOctober2022: Protecting the Poor and Vulnerable in Time of a CrisisApril 2021: The Economic and Poverty Impact of COVID-19February 2019: Demographic Change in Sri LankaJune 2018: More and better jobs for an upper middle-income country Connect withus www.worldbank.org/en/country/srilanka @WorldBankGroup, @WorldBankSAsia,follow #SLDU2026 worldbanksrilanka worldbankgroup the-world-bank Key messages The economic recovery remains strong,with growth and fiscal balancesexceeding expectations, robust financial and external buffers, and key economicsectors resilient to the impacts of CycloneDitwah.1 However,socio-economic indicators remain weak,and households are highlyvulnerable with limited capacity to absorb additional shocks.2 Medium-term growth and poverty prospects hinge on continued macro stability,the successful implementation of growth-enhancing structural reforms, and thepace and scale of post-Ditwahreconstruction.3 Downside risks remain high,particularly from the impact of the conflict in theMiddle East, which has already disrupted normal economic activity and couldfurther dampen gr