摩尔多瓦贫困评估

Public Disclosure Authorized © 2025The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington D C 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusionsexpressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank orthe governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included inthis work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work donot imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or theendorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and P ermissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of itsknowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as fullattribution to this work is given. Attribution Allqueriesonrightsandlicenses,includingsubsidiaryrights,shouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625;e-mail: pubrights@ worldbank.org. TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgements List of Abbreviations Overview 891012Once strongpoverty reduction has stalled as its traditional economic drivers moderate.Long-standing structural challengesand inherent vulnerabilities hamper the transitionto a more sustainable model for income generation and poverty reduction.Against the backdrop of Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine,Moldova faces the twinchallenges of mitigating short-term shocks while pressing ahead with broader structuralreforms that will re-start poverty reduction.IntroductionData Sources13 1.Poverty trends and driversIncome growth among the poor between 2014 and 2018 was driven by pensions and wages 1920242629but held back by remittances.The traditional drivers of poverty reduction are proving increasingly unsustainable.Trends in poverty over 2019-2022 were largely defined by shocks.Knowing who the poor are can help target interventions.Both monetary and non-monetary poverty are predominantly a rural phenomenon. 2.Rural Livelihoods Limited transport to urban jobs and services and vulnerabilityto climate shocks are the keyconstraints to improving livelihoods in rural areas. Moldova’s labor market has high rates of inactivity and informal work and low rates of employment.40 3.Labor Force A lack of jobs, low wages, and inadequate skills are viewed as cross-cutting challenges both bypotential job seekers and employers.Childcare shortages, inflexible work arrangements, and skills mismatches are the key constraints to better labor market outcomes.Energy affordability is a chronic problem in Moldova. 4.Energy VulnerabilityHigh energy expenditure shares render Moldovans vulnerable to energy price shocks. 555758Moldova’s energy vulnerabilities have been laid bare by recent energy price shocks.The government’s policy response helped soften the direct impacts of the energy price spikes.Despite high levels of energy expenditure and challenges with affordability, too few poorMoldovans are estimated to have undertaken energy-efficient upgrades.62 63The EVRF program helped protect vulnerable households fro m the immediate impactof energy price shocks while lower barriers to energy-efficient upgrades can helpimprove energy affordability more broadly. 65Conclusion 6676AppendixSupplementary Materials-Climate Change and Moldova References List of Figures 8Figure O1. After decades of sustained decline, poverty reduction is stagnating Figure 1. Economic growth was driven by strong growth in wages that fueled household consumption15Figure 2. Moldova has achieved some convergence to EU standards of living but still lags peer161617171820212122222323242426262930303131333333343636363738countriesFigure 3. Despite progress, Moldova has a relatively high poverty rate when comparedwith peer countriesFigure 4. Poverty reduction has slowed in recent yearsFigure 5. Consumption growth was stronger among households in lower percentiles and amonghouseholds in small towns and rural areas during 2014-2018Figure 6. Income and consumption inequality are generally lowFigure 7. Poorer Moldovans derive a large share of income from pensionsFigure 8. Remittances are declining at both the national and household levelsFigure 9. Households dependent on remittances accounted for most of the increase in poverty in2020Figure 10. Despite successive increases, pensions are still lowFigure 11. A large and growing share of pension-aged persons are ineligible for pensionsFigure 12. Higher retirement ages are simulated to improve the old age beneficiaries to effectivecontributors ratioFigure 13. Higher retirement ages are simulated to increase the average replacement rateFigure 14. Moldova was experiencing record high fuel inflationFigure 15. Poor households report high shares