2024-2028全球电信展望中的视角：增长的新配方

Perspectives fromthe Global TelecomOutlook 2024-2028 Contents IntroductionMapping growthReshaping B2C utility with AIB2B as a growth priorityPursuing 5G monetizationCellular IOT is growing modestlyThe capital expenditures shiftConclusion: Building the AI grid35789111214 A new recipe for growth Perspectives fromthe Global TelecomOutlook 2024-2028 The telecom industry can find new pockets of revenues andvalue creation amid challenging headwinds The telecoms industry is growing—slowly. The Global Telecom Outlook 2024-2028 shows that the sector’s total servicerevenue across fixed and mobile rose 4.3% in 2023 to US$1.14 trillion. Asshown in the chart below, global industry revenues will rise at a compoundannual growth rate (CAGR) of only 2.9% through 2028, below the projectedof rate of inflation, at which point total revenues will edge up to US$1.3trillion. The telecoms industry continues to face a fundamental challenge: its coreproducts and services are becoming commodities, meaning it has difficultyraising prices, while it faces a continual need to invest in infrastructure. Buteven in industries with relatively slow growth, there are always niches ofexpansion and opportunities for companies to improve their bottom lines.By 2028, there will be an additional US$200 billion in incremental revenuegrowth up for grabs across the sector. Nonetheless, the picture puts evenmore pressure on players in the telecommunications ecosystem to find newways of creating value from existing revenue flows. We stand at the beginning of a sweeping reconfiguration of legacy industries.A combination of myriad immediate crises and five long-term megatrends iscausing long-established industry structures to break down, and triggeringthe formation of new domains of growth centered around human needs:How we feed. How we move. How we build. How we make. How we fuel andpower. And how we care. These diverse ecosystems share a key attribute:they’ll be enabled, connected, and underpinned by technology—not least bydigital connectivity. Telcos play a pivotal role, providing the glue that bindsthe participants together and enables them to drive their individual andcollective growth. These transformations will create a greater demand for connectivityand communications services in the coming years. Under the influenceof key megatrends, the telco industry is itself undergoing a sweepingreconfiguration, which is opening up many new opportunities. The forecastsand insights of the Global Telecom Outlook provide a guide to the ingredientsfor growth. These include strategic investments in AI, fixed connectivity, andB2B service; working with investors and regulators to create opportunities tooptimize market structure; and deploying deals to build scale. Mapping growth Sluggish global growth in overall revenuesmasks wide variations between differentservices and at the national and regionallevels. Between 2023 and 2028 revenue fromfixed broadband, mobile subscriptions, andfixed voice subscriptions will grow at projectedCAGRs of 3.8%, 4.3%, and decrease by–1.8%, respectively. Even wider disparitiesemerge at the country level. The chart belowmaps telecoms service revenue by country in2024, for both fixed (combining broadbandand voice) and mobile, against the five-yearCAGR for the relevant segment in each market. In fixed telecoms, most countries aregrouped around the 0 to 6% CAGR range,including the US and China. But a few outliersshow much higher growth—notably India,Nigeria, Egypt, and Kenya. Meanwhile, maturemarkets such as Japan and Switzerland exhibitnegative CAGRs. Similar—albeit generallysmaller—divergences emerge in mobile. Thevast majority are again grouped in the 0 to 6%CAGR range. The revenue growth leader inmobile is Colombia, with a CAGR of 10.5%,closely followed by India and Argentina. AWorld of Differences Growth rates in revenues will be highest in developing countries Mobile and Fixed revenue CAGRs by country, 2023-2028 AWorld of Differences Growth rates in revenues will be highest in developing countries Mobile and Fixed revenue CAGRs by country, 2023-2028 There are two potential contributors to growth – a rise in the sheer numberof subscribers, and the ability to reap more annual revenues from eachsubscriber. Generally speaking, in both developed and developing countries,raw subscriber growth accounts for most of the new value, with averagerevenue per user (ARPU) generally growing at a slower pace in developingeconomies, and even declining in mature, highly competitive markets.Telecoms service ARPU will continue to decline over the next five years,with mobile ARPU falling at a CAGR of –1.3%, and fixed broadband ARPUessentially flat at a CAGR of –0.1%. Fixed voice ARPU will see a strongerdecline at a CAGR of –4.7%. In fixed services, India’s rapid growth inservice revenues is being driven by headlong subscriber growth at a CAGRof 17.2%, coupled with an ARPU CAGR of just 0.9%. In Nigeria, fixed-lineARPU is projected to decl