大摩- 中国如何对冲关税冲击

中国思考|Asia Pacific Morgan Stanley Asia Limited 邢自强中国首席经济学家Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 中国如何对冲关税冲击 郑林经济学家Jenny.L.Zheng@morganstanley.com+852 3963-4015 高企的关税，预计短期难降ն经济面临实质性下行压力ն市场高度关注中国的政策应对，及人民币的汇率走向ն我们对此探讨分析ն 蔡志鹏经济学家Zhipeng.Cai@morganstanley.com 要点 美国关税高企，预计短期难降，经济面临实质性下行压力ն市场因此高度关注中国的政策应对ն 决策层或不会立即出台增量政策ն二季度的重心在于加速两会政策落地ն 而增量刺激的时间窗口在下半年，规模有望达到1-1.5万亿人民币ն若出口迅速回落，则政府或将提前公布政策细节ն 然而，上述政策难以完全对冲关税影响ն我们今年4.5%的GDP增速预测仍面临下行风险ն 央行或将允许人民币温和贬值来配合货币宽松ն鉴于对资本外流的担忧，允许人民币无序贬值的可能性较低ն 关税愈演愈烈，政策如何应对：中美关税升级加大了长期贸易脱钩的风险ն在宣布对华加征125%的对等关税之后，特朗普总统表明不打算通过进一步提高关税来推动谈判ն但考虑到美国关税背后的战略考量在于促进制造业回流，中国增加自美进口也有难度，短期内局势缓和的空间有限ն市场关注点转向中国的政策应对ն 决策层暂不会出台增量刺激：我们认为，政策框架仍然是反应式的，增量刺激的规模和时点将取决于（1）经济表现和民生反馈；（2）现有政策的成效；（3）在90天的暂缓期结束之后，美国是否会恢复对其他国家的对等关税（这将拖累中国的绕道出口和全球贸易），以及（4）中美开启谈判并降低关税的可能性ն鉴于两会刚刚出台了2万亿人民币的广义财政扩张，以及关税未来的走势依然扑朔迷离，我们认为决策层二季度的重心在于加速已有政策落地，而增量政策的时间窗口或在下半年ն 资料来源：CEICյ摩根士丹利研究部 （下一节继续） This translated report is made available for convenience only and is based on theoriginal research report published in English. In the event of any discrepancy betweenthe translation and the original research report, the content in the original researchreport will prevail. The original research report can be found here: China Musings:What Stimulus Can We Expect? (11 Apr 2025). 本翻译报告仅供参考之便，基于以英文发表的原版研究报告ն如果翻译与原版研究报告有任何不一致之处，以原版研究报告中的内容为准ն原版研究报告可在此处查看：China Musings: What Stimulus Can We Expect? (11 Apr 2025)ն For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section,located at the end of this report. 进一步思考 二季度政策将加速落地：决策层或将加速地方专项债的发行和使用，扩大消费品以旧换新的覆盖范围和补贴力度，以及推动政府进行房地产收储ն全国性的生育补贴等正在筹备中的政策也有望被前置到二季度而并非在7月底的政治局会议公布ն货币政策方面，近期内央行或将开展温和的降息降准，来配合财政政策加速落地（Exhibit 1 )ն 增量刺激的时间窗口在下半年，抑或更快：我们初步预计增量刺激的规模或在1-1.5万亿人民币，这将提振经济增速0.5-0.8个百分点ն虽然时间窗口可能在下半年，但若出口迅速回落，落地时点可能提前ն可能的举措包括加大消费品以旧换新规模，对服务消费提供定向支持，以及加大基建和科创投资ն但总体而言，考虑到决策层彻底转变思路并建立起新的促消费机制（如进行社会福利改革）仍待时日，短期内政策仍将偏供给侧ն 人民币将温和有序贬值：我们此前预测今年年底美元对人民币汇率为7.50，但超预期关税使得7.50的目标点位面临上行风险ն事实上，4月2日以来，央行已经引导人民币对美元中间价贬值了0.4%，通过增强人民币灵活性来配合货币宽松（Exhibit 2）ն然而，人民币无序贬值的可能性较低ն一方面，通过汇率完全对冲高额关税不现实ն另一方面，跟2018-19相比，当前经济基本面面临阶段性挑战，资本外流仍是央行的一大担忧ն因此，我们认为央行将通过逆周期因子以及资本管控来管理人民币的贬值节奏ն 增量政策之下，经济依然面临下行风险：我们今年4.5%的GDP增速预测面临下行风险ն鉴于关税可能仍维持在较高水平，经济增速或将于二季度开始迅速回落ն同时，在反应式的政策框架之下，增量政策或将在下半年才会落实（政策公布时间可能视出口情况而定）ն但这不足以稳定企业和家庭信心，关税对国内投资和消费的次生冲击将加剧通缩压力ն Disclosure Section Information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by one or more of the following, which accept responsibility for its contents: Morgan Stanley AsiaLimited, and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte. (Registration number 199206298Z) and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Securities Pte Ltd (Registration number 200008434H),regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (which accepts legal responsibility for its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with,Morgan Stanley Research), and/or Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited and/or Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Seoul Branch, and/or Morgan Stanley Australia Limited (A.B.N. 67 003 734576, holder of Australian financial services license No. 233742), and/or Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Australia Pty Ltd (A.B.N. 19 009 145 555, holder of Australian financial serviceslicense No. 240813, and/or Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited having Corporate Identification No (CIN) U22990MH1998PTC115305, regulated by the Securities and Exchange Boardof India (“SEBI”) and holder of licenses as a Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH000001105), Stock Broker (SEBI Stock Broker Registration No. INZ000244438), Merchant Banker(SEBI Registration No. INM000011203), and depository participant with National Securities Depository Limited (SEBI Registration No. IN-DP-NSDL-567-2021) having registered office at Altimus,Level 39 & 40, Pandurang Budhkar Marg, Worli, Mumbai 400018, India; Telephone no. +91-22-61181000; Compliance Officer Details: Mr. Tejarshi Hardas, Tel. No.: +91-22-61181000 or Email:tejarshi.hardas@morganstanley.com; Grievance officer details: Mr. Tejarshi Hardas, Tel. No.: +91-22-61181000 or Email: msic-compliance@morganstanley.com which accepts the responsibilityfor its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with, Morgan Stanley Research and their affiliates (collectively, "Morgan Stanley").For important disclosures, stock price charts and equity rating histories regarding companies that are the subject of this report, please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure Websiteat www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures, or contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway, (Attention: Research Management), New York, NY,10036 USA. For valuation methodology and risks associated with any recommendation, rating or price target referenced in this research report, please contact the Client Support Team as follows: US/Canada+1 800 303-2495; Hong Kong +852 2848-5999; Latin America +1 718 754-5444 (U.S.); London +44 (0)20-7425-8169; Singapore