乘着人口结构波潮：老龄化世界中的养老和退休收入

SOCIAL PROTECTION DISCUSSION PAPER No. 2512|MARCH 2025 State of Social Protection Report2025The 2-Billion-Person ChallengeBackground Paper #5 Riding the Demographic Wave:Pensions and RetirementIncome in an Aging World Gonzalo Reyes HartleyMiglena Abels © 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433Telephone: +1 (202) 473 1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org. This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do notnecessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shownon any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement oracceptance of such boundaries. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, inwhole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW,Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: +1 (202) 522 2625; e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. Riding the Demographic Wave:Pensions and RetirementIncome in an Aging World Gonzalo Reyes Hartley*Miglena Abels** Abstract This report examines the state of pension and social insurance systems globally, focusing on old-age income protection. It analyzes expenditure, coverage, adequacy of benefits, and sustainabilityof both contributory and non-contributory pension schemes. The report highlights the impactof population aging on pension systems, emphasizing the need for reforms to ensure fiscalsustainability and adequate benefits. It also explores the challenges of extending coverage toinformal sector workers and the importance of gender equity in pension provision. The reportconcludes with recommendations for adapting pension systems to evolving economic anddemographic realities, emphasizing the need for inclusive and sustainable solutions. JEL Codes:H55, J14, J26, I38, O15, O17 Keywords:Pension system, sustainability, coverage, aging, non-contributory pension, socialpension, social insurance, retirement policies. Acknowledgments This paper was written as part of the preparation of theState of Social Protection Report 2025:The 2-Billion-Person Challenge(World Bank 2025). We would like to thank the entire ASPIREteam for providing the data for the report, especially Vikesh Mahboobani, Ingrid Mujica, OmarNieto, Veronica Lopez, Usama Zafar, Ana Sofia Martinez Cordova, Claudia Patricia RodriguezAlas, and Emil Tesliuc, for ensuring completeness and providing guidance and analysis of data.We would like to thank Ruben Castro for the analysis and calculations used in section 7 ofthis report, and Gustavo Demarco and Jamele Rigolini for their comments and guidance whilepreparing this report. Abbreviationsand Glossary ADePTSoftware platform for automated economic analysis developed by TheAFRAfrica RegionAPYAtal Pension Yojana, IndiaASPIREAtlas of Social Protection Indicators of Resilience and EquityAUDAustralian DollarDBDefined BenefitDCDefined ContributionEAPEast Asia PacificECAEurope and Central AsiaGDPGross Domestic ProductILOSTATInternational Labour Organization Department of StatisticsLCRLatin America and Caribbean RegionMNAMiddle East and North AfricaNDCNotional Defined ContributionNSFNational Savings Fund of ThailandNSERNational Socio-Economic Registry of PakistanNSSFNational Social Security Fund of KenyaOECDOrganisation for Economic Cooperation and DevelopmentPAYGPay-as-you-goPM-SYMPradhan Mantri Shram Yogi Maan-dhan, IndiaRMFRetirement Mutual Fund of ThailandRURSRural and Urban Resident Scheme, ChinaSARSouth Asia RegionUSDUnited States DollarUSSDUnstructured Supplementary Service DataVSIFVoluntary Social Insurance FundVSSViet Nam Social Security AgencyWDIWorld Development Indicators Contents AbstractiiiAcknowledgmentsivAbbreviations and Glossaryv1Aging Will Define the Evolution of Pensions and Social Insurance in the Coming Years12Aging Will Affect All Regions of the World, Many at a Rapid Pace33Contributory and Social Pensions as Instruments for Income Protection in Retirement54Pension Expenditures Are Significantly Affected by the Level of Aging84.1Mature, Well-Established Pensions Show the Largest Expenditures, but Special RegimesConstitute Significant Pension Costs in Less-Developed Countries104.2Expenditure on Non-Contributory Pensions Mirrors Their Coverage Target125Coverage of Pensions and Social Insurance165.1Coverage in Working Age Is Determined by Extent of Formal Employment