非常规投资环境下的策略重构

Why be normal? Fund selectors anticipate a 2024 investmentlandscape that looks anything but normal(new, next, or otherwise). Higher interest rates, receding inflation, and lowerexpectations for both economic growth and marketreturns are the foundation of an unfamiliar landscapethat will challenge investors in 2024. As the uncertainty unfolds, fund selectors at the world’slargest wealth management firms are working diligentlyto minimize the impact it could have, not just on clients’portfolios but also on their behavior. global tensions such as Russia’s war on Ukraine, theOctober Hamas terror attack, and Israel’s retaliation in Gazahave war and terrorism (50%) coming in at a close second. In markets, higher interest rates implemented to containrampant inflation rates have fund selectors bullish onbonds (66%). But the environment brings new concernsto fixed income portfolios in terms of timing decisions tolengthen duration. In addition to bonds, selectors remainbullish on both private debt (57%) and private equity (55%). The emergence of this new investment paradigm maybe a departure from what investors have experiencedin recent years, but this isn’t a sudden transformation.It's the result of a gradual evolution in key economic andmarket trends that have been playing out since the globalpandemic struck. Results from the Natixis 2024 FundSelector Outlook Survey show just how different – anduncertain – the world looks in 2024. Selectors are less certain on stock market performancein 2024. Concerns about declining consumer spending(34%) leave them split as to whether they are bullish orbearish on equities. Yet when it comes down to it, 56%are optimistic about market prospects for 2024. Prospects for slower growth put recession (52%) at thetop of economic threats for fund selectors. But increasing 2024 NATIXIS GLOBAL FUND SELECTOR OUTLOOK SURVEY It adds up to an environment that could have a big impacton portfolios and one that could put clients on edge.To see them through, fund selectors will need to considerhow four key factors will play out in the year ahead: The portfolio:Despite the shifting landscape,selectors are not making wholesale changes toinvestment strategy. Instead, they’re making tacticaltilts within asset classes to better prepare clientsto a new environment favoring bonds. The economy:Recession may be the top concern andnearly half of those surveyed (49%) think it’s inevitable,but not everyone is convinced. In fact, the number whodon’t see recession in the cards had increased by 20%over last year – a point that demonstrates just how hardit is to get a fix on the direction of the economy. The products:Selectors note that their firms areadjusting their product offering for clients with an eyetoward delivering an investment client experience andenhancing customization by increasing the availabilityof third-party model portfolios (41%) and separatelymanaged accounts (37%) to their platforms. The markets:Interest rates, volatility, and inflationrank as the top portfolio risks, return assumptions arelower and sentiment on stocks is split. Despite theanticipated headwinds, many still see potential upsideas 56% say they are optimistic about markets. Sentiment among the panel of 500 investment profes-sionals in 30 countries shows just how these factorscontribute to a more subdued view on what can beaccomplished on behalf of clients in 2024. In managinga total of almost $35 trillion, they have dropped long-term return assumptions by almost 28% compared tolast year (6.3% vs. 8.8%1); it’s clear they have a lot ontheir plates in 2024. it all begins with an unfamiliareconomic outlook. Fund selectors have dropped long-term return assumptions by almost28%comparedto last year(6.3% vs 8.8%) Macro Outlook ’24:Consumers have beenthe driver of the globaleconomy through thepandemic and intothe recovery. Amazon purchases helped keep the economy afloatduring lockdown. In the reopening, spending on traveland in-person experiences helped push the marketthrough. Employment soared and consumers keptspending. Inflation soared and spending continued.Even as interest rates climbed to 15-year highs lastyear, consumers kept spending. But half doesn’t make for a majority. The “recessionistas”have been calling for an economic downturn for twoyears. But it has yet to materialize. In 2023, when rateswere rising, inflation had yet to be tamed, and it wasassumed consumers had burned through pandemicsavings, 60% of fund selectors thought recession wasinevitable. It proved not to be. Many are beginning to believe that the backbone ofeconomic growth is about to break under the weightof higher prices and higher financing costs. Almost sixin ten (59%) of fund selectors predict the job marketwill cool and unemployment will increase in 2024. As if to signal just how unfamiliar today’s economyfeels for many, the number of fund selectors who saythey do not anticipate recession more than doubled to34% in 2024 from last year’