乘数据中心长周期发展浪潮

ASEAN Data Centre Ride the Multi-YearDataCentre Wave Analyst Conflux of positive factors creating a perfect storm Hussaini Saifee(65) 6231 5837hussaini.saifee@maybank.com We expect data centre demand in ASEAN to increase at 20% CAGR and apotential datacentre TAM of USD11b/year till 2028. Our high expectationsis underscored by: 1) ASEAN is 55-70% underpenetrated in data centresupply vs more evolved markets like the US, China, South Korea and Japan;2) rise of AI adding another leg of data centre demandgrowth, which alsohelpsASEAN companies in the global supply chain;3)geopolitics,conducive upstream supply and favourable unit economics as tailwinds forASEAN to emerge as a global data-centre hub. Risk of overbuild/supply isoverhyped as actual capital commitment is just 40% of the theoretical newcapacityannouncements.Drawing insights from our analysts acrosssectors, economics and ESG teams, we highlight key opportunities andstock picks across the entire data centre value chain. Potential forASEAN to punch above its weight Beyond data centre demand for its own need, we see potential for ASEANto emerge as a hub for meeting broader Asian/global data centre needs.ASEAN is emerging as a favourable destination for data centres and subseacablebuilds owing to its neutral geopolitical stance and US-China tradetensions. While power/water remains a major concern globally, ASEAN isplaced favourably with higher power-reserve margins and water-stresslevels in line with the global average. Renewable-energy-addition targetsare ~10x of incremental demand for green data centres. On capex/opexeconomics, ASEAN (ex SG) is20% below the global average on the cost tobuild and 20-30% lower in terms ofpowercost. Oversupply concerns are overhyped Despite high vacancy rates in some smaller markets, overall ASEAN co-location vacancies stand at 10%, a rate considered healthy and consistentwithglobal norms.New capacity addition announcements of~6GW,reflects3.5x supply increase.Such builds mainly reflect theoreticalcapacities based on land availability, not actual capital commitments.Under-construction supplies is just 24% of the live supply while committedis 116%. These suggest, 2.4GW or 1.4x supply increase, although we doubtthateven 100% of the committed supply goes live. The rest of theannouncements are in early stage and we think will hit the ground basedondemand development.Granular analysis shows that average datacentre capacities in large markets like Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta aremodest at just 9MW/facility vs large announcements in 100MW to GWs. Key winners in the rising data-centre wave Among the operators/REITs we prefer Singtel, TM, Globe Tel, MINT,andYTL Power. Among industrials,our preference is for ST Engineering,Sunway,Gamuda and IJM Corp. Utilities beneficiaries would be SembcorpInd, YTL Power, Solarvest, Gulf Energy and AC Energy. While Tenaga (HOLD)should see demand surge from data centres, it does not translate tomaterially higher earnings under the current regulatory framework. Intech,we see CSE Global,Delta Electronics&FPT as potentialbeneficiaries. Table ofContents 1.Key Charts Driving Our Thesis.........................................................................................................42.Key ASEANWinners In The Rising DataCentre Wave..............................................................................53.Demand Drivers: Confluence Of Multiple Factors.................................................................................74.AI: Once-in-a-Generation Opportunity For Data Centres........................................................................85.Potential For Asean To Punch Above Its Weight..................................................................................106.Risk Of Over Supply Is Over Hyped.................................................................................................167.Potential ASEAN TAM of USD11b/year by 2028...................................................................................198.ESG: A Concern, Driver And Differentiator Of Data Centre Demand And Investments....................................239.Sectors/Stocks To Benefit From Data-Centre-Demand Boom.................................................................26 11.Glossary.................................................................................................................................40 Abbreviations:PUE–Power Usage EffectivenessDC–Data CenterMW/GW–Megawatt/GigawattRE–Renewable EnergyTAM-Total Addressable MarketGPU–GraphicsProcessing UnitIBR-Incentive-based Regulation 1.Key charts driving our thesis ASEAN is underpenetrated to begin with; AI provides an additionalgrowth boost Source: Maybank IBG Research,Moody’s Source: Maybank IBG Research, Company, Bloomberg Potential for ASEAN to emerge as a data-centrehub to meet broaderAsian and global data centredemand TikTok moves all US traffic to Oracle servers.Naver, South Korea's largest internet porta