2024CAREC成员国家排放交易机制面临的挑战与机遇研究报告

张小可Progressand Challenges to Implement EmissionTrading Mechanisms in CAREC Nations:Insightsfrom Kazakhstan and China Ummara RaziMuhammad Ramzan Progress and Challenges to Implement Emission Trading Mechanisms in CAREC Nations:Insights from Kazakhstan and China. Ummara RaziDepartment of Business Administration, ILMA University, PakistanEmail:raziummara@gmail.comORCID:https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5981-5736Contact: +923002325025(Principal Researcher) Muhammad Ramzan Department of Business Administration, The University of Sialkot, PakistanEmail:ramzanmehar7@gmail.com(Co-Researcher) Disclaimer The CAREC Institute’s economic and policy brief series is a forum for stimulating discussion and elicitingfeedback on ongoing and recently completed projects and workshops undertaken by CAREC Institute’sstaff, consultants or resource persons. The series deals with key economic and development issues,particularly those facing the CAREC region, as well as conceptual, analytical, or methodological issuesrelating to project/program economic analysis, and statistical data and measurement. The views expressed in this report are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect theviews or policies of the CAREC Institute, its funding entities, or its Governing Council. The CARECInstitute does not guarantee accuracy of the data included in this brief and accepts noresponsibility for any consequences of its use. The terminology used may not necessarily beconsistent with the CAREC Institute’s official terms. The CAREC Institute accepts no liability orresponsibility for any party’s use of this brief or for the consequences of any party’s reliance on theinformation or data provided herein. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographical area, or by usingcountry names in the brief, the author did not intend to make any judgment as to the legal or otherstatus of any territory or area. Boundaries, colors, denominations, or any other information shown onmaps do not imply any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptanceof such boundaries, colors, denominations, or information. This economic brief is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this brief, you agree to bebound by the terms of this license. This CC license does not apply to other copyright materials in thisbrief. If the material is attributed to another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher ofthat source for permission to reproduce it. The CAREC Institute cannot be held liable for any claims thatarise as a result of your use of the material. Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Institute 20th-21st Floors, Commercial Building Block 8, Vanke Metropolitan, No. 66 Longteng Road, Shuimogou District, Urumqi, Xinjiang, the PRC, 830092 LinkedIn: carec-institute Progress and Challenges to Implement Emission Trading Mechanisms in CAREC Nations:Insights from Kazakhstan and China Abstract Emissions trading mechanisms (ETMs) are pivotal for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by setting capson emissions and allowing the trading of emission allowances, incentivizing reductions where they aremost cost-effective. However, ETM implementation in CAREC countries faces significant challenges,primarily due to the suboptimal financial architecture and nascent state of carbon markets. This studyaims to systematically identify and analyze these challenges and barriers, propose an optimized financialarchitecture, and assess the green finance potential to support effective ETM implementation. Recognizingthe diverse economic conditions across CAREC countries, this study conducted a comparative analysis toachieve this objective. The methodology was designed to identify the primary barriers related to successfactors, financial incentives, stakeholder engagement, regulatory support, and technological infrastructure,which are essential to financial architecture. The findings of this study revealed that existing ETMs inCAREC countries face significantlegalization gaps, which impact their efficiency through limitedcompliance and integration challenges. Low carbon pricing and insufficient financial incentives are keyobstacles to green technology adoption. Low stakeholder engagement and outdated technologicalinfrastructure are other concerns that do not support the transparency and effectiveness of ETMs. Acomprehensive scenario analysis was conducted to assess the impact of carbon pricing strategies,emission reduction targets, and the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism on the energy sectors ofChina and Kazakhstan. By evaluating baseline conditions against policy implementation, carbon sensitivity,and climate target achievement, the analysis revealed the financial and operational challenges faced bythese economies in transitioning to low-carbon models. The findings suggest targ