月度策略报告：开门红后无起势

2025年03月10日 开门红后无起势 观点摘要： [table_research]分析师：王江楠从业资格证号：F03108382投资咨询证号：Z0021543研究所 能源化工期货（期权）研究室TEL：010-82295006Email：wangjiangnan@swhysc.com ➢2025年02月行情回顾：国际原油呈震荡后下行的行情，期间有反弹出现，但均未能形成持续行情。PX期货迎来新年开年红后就一路下行，主因是装置检修的炒作和成本端的坍塌。PTA二次反弹未果，终受成本拖累。乙二醇反弹后共振下行，盘面价格跌破4600。 ➢后市展望：PX方面，警惕成本端的波动，预计价格运行区间为6700-7200元/吨。3月明确有检修计划的是九江石化和浙江石化，所以3月PX的供需格局可能转变为轻微累库。目前4-5月PX的检修计划没有超预期的变动，虽然PTA的装置检修存在变数，但4-5月仍是保持去库节奏。短期来看，成本定价是聚酯产业链的逻辑，需要关注地缘政治和宏观消息的冲击影响。PTA方面，计划外的装置检修或带来喘息，预计价格运行区间为4750-5200元/吨。原油在OPEC+执行增产后价格创新低，俄乌战争也存缓和迹象，美国关税政策变动频繁，市场心态在多空消息交错中以观望为主。近期已出现低加工费引发的计划外减停产，预计3月呈现供需去库。但目前PTA仓单库存仍属高位，现货存有缓冲带。后续关注PTA装置检修落实情况及下游聚酯和终端负荷回升进度。MEG方面，港口不能连续去库，预计价格运行区间为4400-4650元/吨。乙二醇装置检修与重启交替进行，新疆天业、兖矿、中昆等装置将逐步落实检修，但是美锦、渭化以及古雷石化存提负以及重启动作，国产量仍将维持高位运行。煤价持续低迷，使得煤制现金流一路走强，工厂整体生产积极性较高，部分装置检修有所推迟。港口库存在3月无法持续去化，预计有反复迹象，因为聚酯工厂原料备货较为充裕且开工提升缓慢。在成本端支撑不力、基本面没有亮点的情况下，价格短期难有大作为。 相关周报 PX&PTA20250210《PX计划外的装置变动带来转机》20250217《装置检修炒作结束，后续执行是关键》20250224《需求恢复缓慢，上涨缺乏驱动》MEG20250211《节后港口库存如期回升，2月继续累库》20250217《依旧处于累库通道，短期货源宽裕》20250224《短期延续低位整理》 风险提示：地缘冲突对原油的冲击、美国关税政策对纺织出口的冲击 目录 （一）行情回顾：装置变动带来提振，但遗憾退场............................................................................................................5（二）装置消息小作文带来扰动...........................................................................................................................................6（三）PXN刷新至近三年低位..............................................................................................................................................8（四）2月份PX或将进入累库局面.....................................................................................................................................9 二、PTA.....................................................................................................................................................................10 （一）行情回顾：二次反弹未果，终受成本拖累..............................................................................................................10（二）加工费空间继续压缩，计划外检修计划频发..........................................................................................................11（三）库存越累越高，供应难调船头.................................................................................................................................13（四）出口环比大幅下跌.....................................................................................................................................................13 （一）行情回顾：反弹后共振下行.....................................................................................................................................14（二）检修计划如期执行，MTO开工下滑明显................................................................................................................14（三）聚酯工厂提货谨慎，港口发货明显下降..................................................................................................................16（四）年底进口有所回升.....................................................................................................................................................17 （一）行情回顾：恢复不及预期.........................................................................................................................................18（二）开工提升空间有限，让利才有产销放量..................................................................................................................19（三）聚酯复产快于终端，形成累库.................................................................................................................................21（四）2024年底出口表现亮眼............................................................................................................................................22 五、纺服消费.................................................................................................................................................................24 （一）纺织内销市场需求恢复缓慢，外贸订单少量下达..................................................................................................24（二）2024年12月有抢出口拉动......................................................................................................................................25（三）英国纺服零售增长最为强势.....................................................................................................................................26 六、后市展望及主要结论...............................................................................................................................................27 图表目录 图1：国际原油期货价格走势（美元/桶）·····························································································································5图2：聚酯上游原料价格走势（美元/吨）·····························································································································5图3：PX与原油价格走势（美元/桶，美元/吨）·················································································································5图4：PXCFR中国现货价格变化（美元/吨）······················································································································5图5：PX期货行情（手，元/吨）··············································································