港股策略月度数据观察（2025年2月）：短期调整在所难免

港股策略月度数据观察(2025年2月) 短期调整在所难免 过去一个月，香港股市大幅上涨，恒生指数、恒生国企指数和恒生科技指数涨幅在17%至26%之间。恒生综合行业指数中，几乎所有行业均录得涨幅。其中，资讯科技和非必需性消费板块表现最佳，上涨26%-30%，而能源板块表现最差，下降3%。本月迄今，资讯科技和非必需性消费分别上涨24%和28%，能源板块继续落后，下跌3%。 工业工程：受季节性因素影响，1月中国挖掘机销量环比下降35%，同比下降1%，其中国内市场销量同比持平，出口销量同比增长2%。 赵文利(852) 3911 8279cliffzhao@ccbintl.com 工 业 运 输 ：BDI环 比 上 涨34%， 但 同 比 下 跌44%；SCFI环比下降22%，同比下降24%；CCFI环比下降12%，同比下降6%。 受春节假期的季节性影响，多数下游数据出现回落，部分数据将在2月披露： 根据RRG分析，资讯科技板块主导市场，并持续增强，是唯一处于领先象限的行业。非必需性消费和医疗保健板块正在获得动能。本月迄今，医疗保健和非必需性消费的RS动量出现了2.2和0.8个百分点的积极变化，而原材料和能源业的该指标下降，分别下滑2.5和2.1个百分点。 邹炜(852) 3911 8246wilsonzou@ccbintl.com 汽车：1月中国乘用车零售销量同比增长率从12%大幅下滑至-12%。新能源汽车零售销量同比增长率从38%降至11%，新能源汽车渗透率下降至42%，已连续五个月环比下降。中国汽车整体库存指数从1.11上升至1.14，但仍低于警戒线1.50。 盈利预测略有上调。过去一个月，20个行业中6个行业的年度预测每股收益均有所上调。在20个主要行业中，现有8个行业的市盈率高于5年平均预期市盈率，其中必需性消费品的市盈率低于5年平均水平0.9个个标准差，而电讯的市盈率则高于5年平均市盈率2.5个标准差。 券商：A股市场表现远逊于港股。1月A股市场日均成交额（ADT）环比下降26%，但同比增长61%； 相 比 之 下 ， 香 港 股 市ADT环 比 增 长1.3%，同比大涨48.8%，达到1438亿港元。 资讯科技：SOX指数环比下跌6%，但同比增长8%。全球半导体出货量12月环比下降2%，同比下降19%。 沪深港通活跃股票中，南向资金继续青睐成长股。阿里巴巴在过去一个月录得大量南向净买入，股价暴涨62%。与此同时，腾讯的南向净卖出最多，但股价仍上涨28%。 虽然近期南向资金继续涌入，但即便是南向资金，虽然整体上呈现逢低买入的长线倾向，但在高位时同样会选择获利了结。从技术面来看，港股目前已进入严重超买区间，投资者需高度警惕回调风险。此外，外部政策环境的不确定性进一步上升，特朗普今日宣布将在此前加征10%关税的基础上，再次对中国商品加征10%关税，这可能对短期市场情绪产生消极影响。与此同时，市场对下周召开的两会预期不高，或成为市场调整的催化因素。因此，我们建议投资者保持谨慎，合理控制仓位，并在适当时机锁定部分收益。 南向资金已成为当前市场强势的主要推动力。2月份，南向资金成交额占香港市场总成交额的比例飙升至47%，远高于1月份的41%，更大幅高于2024年全年平均水平36%。同时，南向资金净流入规模稳步扩大。2月的日均净买入额达到83亿港元，高于1月的70亿港元，更是2024年35亿港元的两倍以上。值得注意的是，近期南向资金的流入速度加快，日均净买入额已连续多日超过100亿港元。 原材料普遍回落： 能源和原材料：布伦特原油环比下跌7%，同比下降12%；WTI原油环比下跌8%，同比下降11%。有色金属（铜、铝、镍、锂）放缓，黑色金属（铁矿石期货）月度价格仍有所上升。 CCBI Securities | ResearchHK Equity Strategy Data Monitor (Feb 2025) Temporary correction to be expected The Hong Kong stock market soared over the pastmonthas the HSI,HSCEI,and HSTECH allexperiencedsurges ranging from 17%to 26%.According to the major industry indexes of theHSCI,virtuallyeverysectorimproved,withinformationand consumer discretionary the topperformers,rising 26-30%.Energy was the mainlaggard, declining 3%. Month-to-date, informationand consumer discretionary were the top performers,rising 24% and 28%. Energy was the top laggard,falling 3%. Industrial engineering:Due to seasonality, Chinaexcavator sales volume was down 35% MoMand 1% YoY in Jan, with sales volume in thedomestic market down 0% YoY, and exportsup 2% YoY. Cliff Zhao (852) 3911 8279cliffzhao@ccbintl.com Industrial transportation:The BDI was up 34%MoM but down 44% YoY while the SCFI wasdown 22% MoM and 24% YoY. The CCFI wasdown 12% MoM and 6% YoY. Mostindustry monitors announced downstreamdata retreated due to the seasonality associatedwith Chinese New Year. According to relative rotation graph (RRG) analysis,Information dominated the market and continuedto gather strength throughout the month, endingFeb as the only industry in the leading quadrant.Consumerdiscretionary and healthcare bothgainedmomentum.Month-to-date,healthcareandconsumer discretionary saw large positivechanges in RS-momentum of 2.2 and 0.8ppt, whilematerials and energy declined by 2.9 and 2.4ppt. Wilson Zou Automobiles:In Jan,China PV retail salesvolumeYoY growth fell from 12%to-12%.China NEV retail sales volume YoY growth fellfrom 38% to 11%. China NEV penetration fell to42%in Jan,having declined MoM for fiveconsecutive months. The China Auto OverallInventory Index rose from 1.11 to 1.14 in Jan,below the warning level of 1.50. (852) 3911 8246wilsonzou@ccbintl.com Earnings forecastshave been slightly upgraded.Estimated current year EPS for 6 out of 20 sectorsrose over the past month. Among the 20 majorsectors, 8 traded above their 5Y average forwardP/E.Consumer staple products traded 0.9 SDbelowtheir5Yaveragewhiletelecommunications traded 2.5 SD above its 5Yaverage P/E. Brokers:The A-share market lagged far behindthe Hong Kong market. In Jan, A-share marketADT was down 26% MoM but up 61% YoY whileHong Kong stock market ADT was up 1.3%MoM and up 48.8% YoY to HK$143.8b. Information:The SOX was down 6% MoM withaYoYincreaseof8%.Worldwidesemiconductorshipments,meanwhile,fell2% MoM and 19% YoY in Dec. AmongShanghaiandShenzhen-HKStockConnect active stocks, southbound flow continued tofavorgrowth stocks.Alibaba recorded heavysouthboundnet buying over the past month,resulting in a 62% rally in its share price. Tencent sawthe highest net selling over the past month, leading toa 28% increase in its share price. Although southbound funds continue to flow in, thecurrent wave is being driven by trading-orientedinvestors. Foreign participation mainly consists ofpassive funds and hedge funds. As a result, shouldthe market stagnate or suffer a correction, theincentive for profit-taking would be stronger. Eventhough southbound funds have a long establishedinclination to buy on dips, they seem more likely totake profits at the current high levels. Southboundfunds emerged as the driving forcebehindthe recent market rally.In February,theturnover of southbound funds over total Hong Kongstock market turnover surg