越南贸易政策与就业：中美贸易紧张局势的意外后果

Trade Policy and Jobs inVietnam: The UnintendedConsequences of US-China Trade Tensions Lorenzo Rotunno, Sanchari Roy, Anri Sakakibara and Pierre-Louis Vezina WP/24/263 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2024DEC IMF Working Paper Strategy, Policy & Review Trade Policy and Jobs in Vietnam:The Unintended Consequences of US-China Trade TensionsPrepared by Lorenzo Rotunno, Sanchari Roy, Anri Sakakibara and Pierre-Louis Vezina* Authorized for distribution by Martin SommerDecember 2024 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:We use the US-China tariffs of 2018-19 as an exogenous shock to export opportunities inVietnam to identify how trade policy affects job creation. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we firstshow that US tariffs on China increased the range of products exported by Vietnam to the US in the two yearsafter the hikes. We then show using firm level data that this expansion in export opportunities led to jobcreation. Around 5% extra jobs were created in firms hit with average tariffs above 15%. Results point towardsthis effect being driven mostly by female employment. *We thank Richard Baldwin, Jason Garred, Daniele Girardi, Brian McCaig, Sang Hyun Park, Nina Pavcnik, Martin Sommer andseminar participants at the 2022 Hitotsubashi-Gakushuin workshop, at UCL (SSEES), at the Geneva Trade and DevelopmentWorkshop (GTDW), at the IMF, Keio University, Nottingham (CITP), at the IEA meeting in Medellin, the CAED conference at PennState, and at the Patras Applied Micro workshop in Olympia for helpful suggestions. This paper is a substantially revised andupdated version of the QPE Working Paper 2023-56 published under the title ``Trade Policy and Jobs in Vietnam: The UnintendedConsequences of Trump's Trade War''. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily representthe views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. This paper was supported by a British Academy/Leverhulme SmallResearch Grant. We thank Anthony Senior at King's for all his help. Trade Policy and Jobs in Vietnam:The Unintended Consequences of US-China Trade Tensions Prepared by Lorenzo Rotunno, Sanchary Roy, Anri Sakakibara and Pierre-LouisVezina1 Trade Policy and Jobs in Vietnam:The Unintended Consequences of US-China Trade Tensions Lorenzo Rotunno†Sanchari Roy‡Anri Sakakibara§Pierre-Louis Vézina¶ November 19, 2024 Abstract We use the US-China tariffs of 2018-19 as an exogenous shock to export op-portunities in Vietnam to identify how trade policy affects job creation.Usinga difference-in-differences framework, we first show that US tariffs on China in-creased the range of products exported by Vietnam to the US in the two yearsafter the hikes. We then show using firm level data that this expansion in exportopportunities led to job creation.Around 5% extra jobs were created in firmshit with average tariffs above 15%. Results point towards this effect being drivenmostly by female employment. Key Words: Vietnam, US-China trade tensions, trade policy, exports, employment. 1Introduction Understanding the effects of trade policy is of particular importance to developingeconomies, where exposure to international markets can shape livelihoods throughlabor market opportunities (Caliendo and Parro, 2022). Identifying the impact of tradepolicy is challenging however, as policies affecting openness are typically endogenous –they often target specific sectors or regions likely to benefit from trade, or are the resultof export success rather than its cause. Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), for example,often result from lobbying by large multinationals (Blanga-Gubbay et al., 2024). We use the emergence of US-China trade tensions as an exogenous shock to exportopportunities in Vietnam to identify the effect of trade policy on job creation. The tariffhikes imposed on China by the US administration in 2018 and 2019 affected about twothirds of all products, covered $250 billion of Chinese goods and caused large declinesin US imports (Amiti et al., 2019; Fajgelbaum et al., 2019). As a result, the US becamerelatively more open to exports from other countries.Since US tariffs were targetedat China and not at Vietnam, as well as being mostly politically-motivated (Lake andNie, 2023; Autor et al., 2023), we argue that this constitutes a natural experimentwhereby the timing and the product coverage of the tariffs provide exogenous variationin Vietnam’s export opportunities. Existing evidence sugges