2025年全球电力市场报告：至2027年的分析与预测

Analysis and forecast to 2027 INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY The IEA examines the fullspectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement and muchmore. Through its work,the IEA advocatespolicies that will enhancethe reliability,affordability andsustainability of energyin its32Member countries,13Association countriesand beyond. IEAMembercountries: IEAAssociationcountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine This publication and any mapincluded herein are withoutprejudice to the status of orsovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers andboundaries and to the nameof any territory, city or area. The EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEA Revised version,February2025Information notice found at:www.iea.org/correctionsarea. Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Abstract Strong growth in electricity demand is raising the curtain on a new Age ofElectricity, with consumption set to soar through 2027. Electrification of buildings,transportation and industry combined with a growing demand for air conditionersand data centres is ushering a shift toward a global economy with electricity at itsfoundations. TheInternational Energy Agency’s Electricity 2025 provides a deep andcomprehensive analysis of all these trends as well as recent policy developments.For the period 2025 through 2027, it forecasts electricity demand, supply andcarbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for select countries, by region and worldwide. Thereport explores emerging trends such as growing electrification, expanding powersystems and an increasing share of weather-dependent energy sources in thegeneration mix.Through this lens, it assesses resource adequacy and themethods needed to ensure the security, resilience and reliability of power systemsand electricity supply. This year’s report, now in its sixth year, includes a specialfeatureon China’s evolving power demand as well as a section on thephenomenon of negative wholesale electricity prices in some markets. Acknowledgements, contributorsand credits This study was prepared by the Gas, Coal and Power Markets (GCP) Division ofthe International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Directorate of Energy Markets andSecurity (EMS). The study was designed and directed by Eren Çam, EnergyAnalyst for Electricity, who also co-ordinated the production of the report. The lead authors of the report were Eren Çam, Marc Casanovas and JohnMoloney. Other IEA colleagues provided important contributions, including JavierJorquera Copier and Jacques Warichet (Adequacy), Floris van Dedem and RenaKuwahata (Network tariffs), Matthew Davis and Martin Strand Hušek (Wholesaleprices). The work greatly benefitted from strategic guidance from Keisuke Sadamori,Director of EMS and Dennis Hesseling, Head of GCP. Valuable comments andguidance were provided by other senior management within the IEA, in particular,Laura Cozzi and Tim Gould. In addition, expert guidance and valuable input fromCarlos Fernández Álvarez, Senior Energy Analyst, is greatly appreciated. The report also benefited from analysis and data from Syrine El Abed, NadimAbillama, Syed Yasir Ahmad, Jenny Birkeland, Esra Bozkır Broekman,Pedro Ninode Carvalho, Gyuri Cho, Trevor Criswell, Hendrik Diers, Carole Etienne, JohnFennelly, Takeshi Furukawa, Claire Lesieur, Craig Hart, Lydia Jayakumar, HannaKlar, Yihong Liu, Akos Losz, Rita Madeira, Edward McDonald, Gergely Molnár,Ranya Oualid, Alessio Pastore, Isaac Portugal, Axel Priambodo, Frederick Ritter,Hasti Wiandita and Jiapeng Zheng. IEAcolleagues across the agency provided valuable input,comments andfeedback,in particular,Vasilios Anatolitis,Heymi Bahar,Federico Callioni,Elizabeth Connelly, Julie Dallard, Davide D’Ambrosio, Paolo Frankl, Pietro Gioia,Rafael Martinez Gordon, Alexandre Gouy, Ciarán Healy, Pablo Hevia-Koch, HughHopewell, Vincent Jacamon, Kavita Jadhav, Lydia Jayakumar,Martin Küppers,PeterLevi,Rebecca McKimm,Brian Motherway,Vera O’Riordan,CamillePaillard, Faidon Papadimoulis, Apostolos Petropoulos, Brendan Reidenbach, MaxSchönfisch,Thomas Spencer,Victor Garcia Tapia,Anthony Vautrin,BrentWanner, Jun Yang, and Biqing Yang. Theauthors would also like to thank Diane Munro for skilfully editing themanuscript and the IEA Communication and Digital Office, in particular, JethroMullen, Oliver Joy and Astrid Dumond. We also thank Einar Einarsson for hisassistance in setting up the peer review. Many experts from outside of the IEA reviewed the report and provided valuablecomments. They include: Paul Austin