股指期货周度报告：外围冲击缓和，AI引领股市上涨

本周（02.03-02.07）以美元计价的全球股市涨跌互现。MSCI全球指数跌0.05%，其中新兴市场（+1.38%）>前沿市场（-0.04%）>发达市场（-0.10%）。中国股市一骑绝尘，MSCI中国涨幅高达4.76%，领跑全球。荷兰股市跌幅1.24%则表现不佳。中国权益分市场看，港股>中概股>A股。A股沪深京三市日均成交额16159亿元，环比节前一周（12156亿元)放量4003亿元。A股宽基指数全线收涨，北证50涨幅高达12.03%，领跑诸指数。本周A股中信一级行业中共共26个上涨（上周12个），4个下跌（上周18个）。领涨行业为计算机（+12.63%），领跌行业为银行（-1.90%）。利率方面，本周10Y国债收益率小幅下行，1Y上行，利差扩大。ETF资金流向方面，跟踪沪深300指数的ETF份额本周增加2.5亿份，跟踪中证500的ETF份额增加2.7亿份。跟踪中证1000的ETF份额本周增加8.3亿份。 ★下周观点：A股有望持续走强 蛇年开年第一周，A股气势如虹，涨幅跑赢全球。主要原因有三点：一是美国对华加征关税并未朝着最猛烈、最严峻的形势演进。从美国对墨西哥和加拿大以及对华小额包裹加征关税“朝令夕改”来看，市场意识到加征关税依旧处在“小步幅、渐进式、可谈判”的范畴中，尽管未来演变情况仍有不确定性，依旧刺激市场风险偏好回升。二是deepseek这一国产AI大模型取得的突破吸引全球资金关注，中国AI板块行情扩散至全部A股。展望后市，国内政策向以AI为代表的新质生产力领域进一步投入将持续带来增量资金入场，科技股的优势仍然存在。 ★风险提示： 美国对华贸易战，海外地缘风险加剧。 扫描二维码，微信关注“东证繁微”小程序 目录 1、一周观点与宏观重点事件概览...........................................................................................................................................51.1本周每日走势复盘...............................................................................................................................................................51.2本周重点事件关注：..........................................................................................................................................................72、一周市场行情总览...............................................................................................................................................................92.1全球股市周度概览..............................................................................................................................................................92.2中国股市周度概览..............................................................................................................................................................92.3中外股市GICS一级行业周度概览..................................................................................................................................102.4中国A股中信一级行业周度概览....................................................................................................................................102.5中国A股风格周度概览：小盘成长占优........................................................................................................................112.6期指基差概览....................................................................................................................................................................113、指数估值与盈利预测概览.................................................................................................................................................123.1宽基指数估值....................................................................................................................................................................123.2一级行业估值....................................................................................................................................................................123.3宽基指数股权风险溢价....................................................................................................................................................133.4宽基指数一致预期盈利增速............................................................................................................................................144.1利率与汇率........................................................................................................................................................................154.2交易型资金跟踪................................................................................................................................................................154.3通过ETF流入的资金跟踪................................................................................................................................................165、国内宏观高频数据跟踪.....................................................................................................................................................175.1供给端：生产端节后初步提速........................................................................................................................................175.2消费端：地产成交走弱，国际油价持续上行................................................................................................................185.3通胀观察：生产与农产品价格边际回升........................................................................................................................196、风险提示.............................................................................................................................................................................19 图表目录 图表1：A股港股各板块日内走势（2025-02-05）......................................................................................................................................5图表2：A股宽基指数日内走势（2025-02-05）...........................................................................................................................................5图表3：各板块日内走势：A股港股（2025-02-06）..................................................................................................................................6图表4：A股宽基指数日内走势（2025-02-06）.........