航空服务业2023年7月更新

Q2 2023 Commercial activity is on the risewhile private aviation stabilizes In This Report Used Jet Prices And Inventories AreRationalizing Aviation ServicesIndustry Update Activity Updates and Analyses Aviation Services Observations and Key Trends Business jet activity hasstabilized at a roughly 6%decline versus 2022, butstill remains 15% to 20%higher than 2019. However,as growth trends began totaper last summer, manyexpect to see a narrowerdeficit in the next fewmonths.1 pricing. During the pandemic, manyaircraft were purchased as a result ofthe limited availability of commercialoptions as well as a tax planningmaneuver.3The manic purchasingactivity dried up new and usedinventory levels and subsequentlydrove prices higher. To offset thepurchase price and operating costs,many individuals and businesseswould charter their aircraft. Key Conference Highlights Supply Chain Issues Impact Firmsat Varying Degrees •While some companies reportdifficulties in labor shortages andprocurement constraints, manyhave largely recovered from thechallenges experienced in 2022•Greater interest in PMA and DERfor non-engine components andrepairs•Operators plan to keep more “justin case inventory” until the supplychain fully stabilizes However, as the pandemic passedand commercial routes reopened,charter flight hours tapered. Coupledwith increased operating costs drivenby pilot shortages, wage inflation,and supply chain difficulties, manyoperators could not achieve the samelevel of cost offset that they hadpreviously. More broadly, 2023 U.S. generalaviation activity through April isdown less than 1% compared to thesame period in 2022.2The activitycomparison between business jetand GA is due in part to anotherdevelopment in private aviation:Many jets purchased during COVIDare finding their way back to theused market. As such, many individuals andbusinesses have sought to sell theiraircraft. This phenomenon hasprimarily impacted small and midsizeaircraft owners. Owners of larger,more advanced business jets tend tobe less price sensitive and generallydid not contemplate the need tocharter their aircraft to offset the cost.As such, inventory for these aircraftremains scarce. Airline Operators Look FurtherUpstream to Offset Supply ChainChallenges •Macro challenges emphasize theimportance of strong relationshipswith suppliers and MRO providers•Clear communication withsuppliers is paramount tonavigating upstream challenges While private aviation activity findsa steady state, global commercial airtravel has accelerated its recovery inthe first quarter, boosted by lifting oftravel restrictions in China. While supply and demand for usedaircraft reach an equilibrium, bothcommercial and private aircraft OEMsare bullish on new deliveries throughthe remainder of 2023 and beyond. Used Jet Prices Rationalize asInventories RiseThrough the beginning of 2023, the supply and demand of pre-ownedprivate jets have found a new balance.Specifically, among small and midsizejets, inventory levels have steadilyrisen, resulting in more normalized The recovery of international flightsto and from China has a meaningfulimpact on neighboring airspace. Theongoing conflict in Eastern Europehas prompted many airlines to avoidUkrainian and Russian airspacealtogether, driving longer, morecomplex routes throughout Europeand Asia. China’s resumption ofactivity puts further pressure on theregion and may bottleneck certainroutings. The Resurgence of Chinese AviationIn early January, China reversed itszero-COVID policies and ended almostthree years of border closures andtravel restrictions. With the reopening,flight activity in the region is pickingup and bringing about many changesand developments. Key Conference Highlights In the first quarter of 2023, globalair traffic has quickly rallied towardpre-COVID levels. In March of 2023for example, total traffic (measuredin revenue passenger kilometers)rose 52.4% compared to March 2022,reaching 88.0% of March 2019 levels.4This continued recovery was primarilypropelled by activity in the Asia-Pacificregion. These carriers experiencedtriple-digit growth in internationaltraffic and a dramatic increase inregional activity. Aviation Aftermarket to OutpaceNew Aircraft Production Market •Boeing projects 40,000+ newdeliveries over the next 20 years, anannual growth of about 3.5%, butaftermarket and MRO are forecastto grow at 4%+ per year5,6•In response, OEMs are investing intheir own operations to capture anadditional share of that revenue5,6 With the rapid end to China’s COVIDstrategy, aviation activity in the Asia-Pacific region will continue to change.For the time being, travel volumes andflight activity continue to rise. M&A Activity to Pick Up ThroughThis Year and Next •While some labor and procurementissues remain, flight activity’sreturn to pre-pandemic levels isrenewing investor optimism incommercial aerospace (Trailing Twelve Months May 2023 Business Jet Operations) Business JetOperations andCo