固定收益日市况更新

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 New RESONA’28 tightened 10bps, CHINLP Perp rose 0.5pt this morning.China AMCs, HKAAs were active with two-way flows. Developersstabilized, CHJMAO/NWDEVL/VNKRLE moved-0.4 to +0.2pt. Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk CHINLP:CHINLP 5.45 Perp is a good carry-play in CLP complex. CHINLP5.25 Perp rose 0.5pt this morning. See below comments. Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk China Economy-Deflation spiral continued. CMBI expects China’s CPI andPPI to recover from 0.2% and-2.2% in 2024 to 0.6% and-0.3% in 2025. Seebelow for comment from CMBI economic research. Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 JerryWang王世超(852)3761 8919jerrywang@cmbi.com.hk Yesterday, the new HKAA 35s tightened 15bps from RO (CT10+55), whilethe new HKAA 28s/30s closed unchanged around ROs amid balanced two-way flows. The recent new BOCAVI 4.75 28s/EIBKOR 4.875 30s widened 1-2bps.HYUCAP announced new issue mandate of 3-yr USD bonds.HYNMTRs/HYUELEs were unchanged to 2bps wider on some PB selling.Chinese IGs were better sold. HAOHUA/BABA/TENCNT/XIAOMI 28-31swere 1-3bps wider. See our comments on China’s consumption plays on9Jan ’25. In financials, Chinese AMCs were mixed. ORIEAS 27s tightened2bps, while CCAMCL 29-30s/CFAMCI 26s were 1-3bps wider on smallselling. In EU AT1s, the recent new STANLN/BBVASM Perps retreated 0.2-0.3pt after the gain of 0.2-0.6pt on Wed. The short-dated-to-call papers suchas BACR 6.125/HSBC 6.5 Perps were 0.1-0.3pt lower. In JP, DAIL 6.2 Perprose 0.4pt to 100.6 despite profit taking. NIPLIF/MYLIFE 54s rebounded 0.2-0.3pts after the decline of 0.3pt on Wed. In HK, CHINLP priced a USD500mnNC5.25 Perp at par to yield 5.452%, and the new CHINLP 5.45 Perp rose0.5ptfrom RO at par.See below comments.NWDEVL Perps/27-31sretreated 0.7-1.4pts and closed 2.2-3.0pts lower WTD. In Chinese properties,VNKRLE 25-29s declined another 1.0-1.4pts and closed 6.0-8.5pts lowerWTD. CHJMAO 29s fell 2.1pts onVNKRLE's spillover, while CHJMAO 25-26s were unchanged to 0.3pt lower. LNGFOR 27-32s dropped another 1.2-2.0pts and closed 3.4-3.9pts lower WTD. FTLNHD/FUTLAN 25-26s weredown 0.8-1.2pts. In India, UPLLIN Perp rose 2.4pts, UPLLIN 28-30s were0.3pt higher. In LGFVs, the recent new HNRAIL/YWSOAO 28s were down 0.1pt amidmixed flows. JNUCGC 26s were down 0.2pt, GDCOMM 27s/SIDEVE 26swere up 0.2-0.3pt. There were two-way interests on CNH LGFVs such asHYINVG/GXDVIN 27s. In SOE perps, SPICPD 4.95/HUADIA 3.375 Perpswere 0.1pt lower. LastTradingDay’s Top Movers MarcoNews Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–US stock market suspendedonThursday. UST yieldedged higheryesterday, 2/5/10/30 yield reached4.27%/4.46%/4.68%/4.92%. DeskAnalystComments分析员市场观点 CHINLP: CHINLP 5.45 Perp is a good carry-play in CLP complex CLP issued USD500mn CHINLP 5.45 Perp (Moody’s/S&P: A3/A-). The coupon of the new CHINLP 5.45 Perpwill be reset and step up to 5yUST+initial spread+25bps if it is not called on the first call date in Apr’30. The newCHINLP 5.45 Perp will have 50% equity credit in the calculation by Moody’s and S&P. The proceedsfrom thenew issuance is to redeem CHINLP 3.55 Perp of USD500mn before its coupon reset date on 6 Feb’25. We view the new CHINLP 5.45 Perp is a good carry-play within the CLPcomplex. CHINLP 5.45 Perp moved+0.5pts this morning. At 100.5, CHINLP 5.45 Perp is trading at YTC of 5.33%, 25bps higher than CHINLP 2.12506/30/30 with c2-month shorter in “maturity”. Despite the low coupon step-up of 25bps in Apr’30, we take somecomfort on CLP’s track record of calling its perps before the first coupon reset date, i.e. CHINLP 4.5 Perp wascalled in Nov’19, and CLP will redeem CHINLP 3.55 Perp before the first coupon reset date in Feb’25. That said, we prefer perps with high coupon step-up that we believe the incentive to call is higher. In Asiancorporate perps space, we prefer SMC complex with 300-500bps coupon step-up, i.e. PCORPM 5.95 Perp,SMCGL 5.7 Perp, SMCGL 5.45 Perp, SMCGL 8.125 Perp and SMCPM 5.5 Perp. We also view FAEACO 12.764Perp is a good short-dated carry play after the coupon step-up in Oct’24. Please refer to ourAsia Credit Outlook2025for more detailed discussion. ChinaEconomy-Deflation spiral continued China’s Dec CPI further declined, approaching the contraction territory amid soft food and energy prices. CoreCPI growth sustained its recovery thanks to the surging home service and tourism price heading into ChineseNew Year (CNY). PPI dipped again in Dec on a sequential basis, while its YoY decline narrowed. Downstreamsectors remained subdued dragged by soft durablegoods price, especially autos. The falling 10Y Treasury yieldreflected the extremely weak market expectations for future economic growth and inflation,despite thegovernment’s pivot to more aggressive stimulus measures. In light of this, the current stimulus seems insufficientto pull China out of its deflationary spiral. In the short term, the “wait and see” stage should continue and thesc