聚烯烃日报：供应端增量，价格延续下行

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 中性：裕龙石化、内蒙宝丰、中英石化等新装置开始放量，检修企业陆续恢复，聚烯烃开工率已至中高位，未来开工亦有进一步提升预期。但市场供应压力传导缓慢，PE现货维持偏紧，基差小幅走弱仍维持高位。进口回升速率仍偏慢，中国PE进口压力暂不大。下游工厂开工率缓慢下滑，终端工厂春节前存备货预期，下游需求支撑盘面，预计未来持续缓慢下行。聚烯烃上游库存持续去化，社会整体库存处于年内低位，处于强现实弱预期的格局，基差仍维持高位，等待库存累积后的基差回落，未来供应端压力增大，预计聚烯烃偏弱震荡运行。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 联系人 库存方面，石化库存60万吨（-2）。 杨露露0755-82790795yanglulu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03128371 基差方面，LL华东基差在850元/吨，PP华东基差在70元/吨。 生产利润及国内开工方面，丙烷延续强势，PDH制PP生产利润亏损，关注PDH亏损性停产情况。裕龙石化、内蒙宝丰、中英石化等新装置开始放量，检修企业陆续恢复，聚烯烃开工率已至中高位，未来开工亦有进一步提升预期。 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com从业资格号：F03119179 进出口方面，LL进口利润打开，PP出口窗口关闭。 ■策略 刘启展020-83901049liuqizhan@htfc.com从业资格号：F03140168 （1）单边：中性。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 地缘政治影响，原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%.................