路漫漫其修远兮，上下求利难言易

2024年12月 路漫漫其修远兮，上下求利难言易 [table_main]观点摘要： [table_research]分析师：王江楠从业资格证号：F03108382投资咨询证号：Z0021543研究所 能源化工期货（期权）研究室TEL：010-82295006Email：wangjiangnan@swhysc.com ➢2024年行情回顾：2024年聚酯相关商品表现分化，PX和PTA紧追原油的脚步，MEG走出阴霾。整体来看，H1在波动中维持相对稳定，H2在失去成本的指引后难觅出路。纺服行业的旺季不旺已是常态，金九银十未能掀起波澜，聚酯产销多为低价引发的脉冲式走量，没有因为订单好转驱动的主动备货行为。成本（原油）成为PX和PTA的关键词，港口库存则是MEG的关键词，上游主导定价的逻辑愈发明显，下游在产业链中处于劣势地位。 ➢2025年PX展望：整体来看，若2025年油价走低，则PX价格很难大有作为，PX-PTA装置投产的时间错配可能阶段性影响价格；预计上半年价格偏强运行，Q2或将出现价格高点，下半年受终端需求的影响而窄幅震荡，运行区间大致为6400-7400。 ➢2025年PTA展望：PTA的效益分配处于劣势地位，效益水平较2024年也将进一步下滑。整体来看是供应过剩的局面，同时受到成本端和需求端的双重制约。若装置的检修节奏和下游聚酯的开工出现窗口时间差，则有阶段性的供需矛盾缓和。策略上可与PX一同执行加工费锁定，趋势上遵循成本定价逻辑，关注事件性驱动机会，运行区间大致在4600-5400。 ➢2025年MEG展望：国产新装置在和进口货源竞争的同时，也导致了部分综合成本较高的国产老装置进入长停状态，使得MEG整体开工处于中性水平。总体来看，MEG的价格运行逻辑将回归存量供应的边际变化以及下游聚酯向上传导的需求增长。另外地缘及宏观事件或将影响到航运，将会给价格带来短时的冲击。运行区间大致为4400-5000，震荡区间收窄。 2024.Q1《需求雾里看花，拐点能否如期而至》2024.H1《背靠大树是否好乘凉》2024.Q3《成本定价下的跟随》 ➢风险提示：上行风险为纺服消费远超预期、宏观利好助推，下行风险为原油成本支撑坍塌、进口超量到港。 目录 （一）2024行情回顾：成本还是成本..................................................................................................................................6（二）芳烃调油中途离场后再无波澜...................................................................................................................................7（三）检修季损失少于去年，产量屡创新高........................................................................................................................9 二、PTA.........................................................................................................................................................................11 （一）2024行情回顾：“一损俱损”式下跌.........................................................................................................................11（二）低加工费迫使产能出清，累库状态下加工费仍有上行..........................................................................................12（三）2024实际新增450万吨产能，产量为近五年最高.................................................................................................14（四）出口表现超预期，装置一体化带来价格优势..........................................................................................................15 （一）2024行情回顾：忽如一夜春风来，翻身农奴把歌唱.............................................................................................16（二）投产增速显著降低.....................................................................................................................................................17（三）守得云开见月明，效益整体修复.............................................................................................................................18（四）港口库存绝对低位是价格上行的底气......................................................................................................................19 四、聚酯.........................................................................................................................................................................21 （一）旺季表现确实不旺.....................................................................................................................................................21（二）主动减产，产销点状放量.........................................................................................................................................22（三）主动去库带来转机，工厂对高库存容忍度择增加..................................................................................................24（四）瓶片出口成为主力，长丝出口罕见回落..................................................................................................................26 （一）坯布价格上行困难重重，新增订单体量不及同期..................................................................................................27（二）居民消费追求性价比，纺服需求被优化..................................................................................................................28（三）出口以价换量，高端订单竞争激烈.........................................................................................................................29 图表目录 图1：2024年PX行情走势························································································································································6图2：PX与原油价格走势（美元/桶，美元/吨）·················································································································7图3：PXCFR中国现货价格变化（美元/吨）······················································································································7图4：亚洲炼油工厂经济型选择（美元/吨）·························································································································7图5：成品油VS芳烃开工（%）············································································································································7图6：中国自韩国进口PX数量（万吨）·······························································································································7图7：2024韩国PX出口情况（万吨）··································································································································7图8：石脑油生产利润（美元/吨）································································································································