智能交易：人工智能如何塑造国际贸易2024

How AI shapes and is shapedby international trade Disclaimer Thispublication has been prepared under the WTO Secretariat’s own responsibility.It does notnecessarily reflect the positions or opinions of WTO members and it is without prejudice to their rightsand obligations under the WTO agreements. The opinions expressed and arguments employed hereinare not intended to provide any authoritative or legal interpretation of provisions of the WTO agreementsand shall in no way be read or understood to have any legal implications. The terms and illustrations usedin this publication do not constitute or imply an expression of opinion by the WTO Secretariat concerningthe status or boundaries of any territory. The opinion pieces written by the external contributors are thesole responsibility of their respective authors. Table of contents Acknowledgements02 Executive summary06 Chapter 1 Introduction 11 (a)What is artificial intelligence (AI) and what makes it unique?14(b) How will AI affect international trade?18 Chapter 3 The policies of AI and trade35 (a) AI and trade: key policy considerations36(b)The global race to promote and regulateAI and the risk of fragmentation46 (a) Promoting global convergence66(b)Facilitating trade in AI-related goods andservices for AI growth and development70(c) Minimizing negative international spillovers77(d)Helping to address and prevent trade tensionsand frictions79(e)Promoting inclusiveness through special anddifferential treatment and technical assistance80(f)Scholars’ views on the possible implications of AIfor international trade rules82 Chapter 5 Conclusion 89 Annex 1 Key AI-related terms93Annex 2 Technical appendix on the simulation scenarios94Annex 3 Key policy and standard-relatedinternational initiatives in the area of AI98Annex 4 Survey of academics104Bibliography105Opinion piecesRichard Baldwin, “AI means that services will be the future of trade”25James Manyika, “Harnessing technology to advance shared prosperity”37Shin-yi Peng, “AI: Amplifying the digital trade issues”41Eduardo Paranhos, “Navigating AI regulation:balancing innovation, risks and regulatory defragmentation”45Daniel Trefler, “Building global chains of trust”81 Acknowledgements Mavroidis,Roberta Lascari,Xiaodong Wang);Trade andEnvironmentDivision(Erik Wijkström,Devin McDaniels);Trade in Services and Investment Division (Pamela ApazaLanyi,Antonia Carzaniga,Xiaolin Chai,Markus Jelitto,Joscelyn Magdeleine, Ruosi Zhang); Trade Policies ReviewDivision(Rohini Acharya);and Rules Division(ClarisseMorgan, Hiromi Yano). The report was prepared under the general responsibility andguidance of Johanna Hill, WTO Deputy Director-General,and Ralph Ossa, Director of the Economic Research andStatistics Division. Coordination of the report and preparation of the chapterswas led by Emmanuelle Ganne and Ankai Xu. The mainauthors of the report are Emmanuelle Ganne, Lauro Locksand Ankai Xu. Opinion pieces were provided by Richard Baldwin, JamesManyika, Eduardo Paranhos, Shin-Yi Peng and Daniel Trefler.Acase study was provided by the Ministry of DigitalDevelopment and Information of Singapore. SubstantialcontributionswerereceivedfromEddyBekkers,Şeref Gökay Coşkun, Hryhorii Kalachyhin, KathrynLundquist,Martin Roy and Xiaoping Wu.Additionalcontributionswere received from Milena Azevedo,ArtiGobind Daswani, Anastasiia Koltunova, Jesse Nicol, DanielRamos, Yves Renouf, Stefania Semenova, Monia SnoussiMimouni and Astghik Solomonyan. The following individuals from outside the WTO Secretariatprovided useful comments during the initial drafting stageof the report: Susan Aaronson, Andrea Andrenelli, CraigAtkinson,Richard Baldwin,Erik Brynjolfsson,Mira Burri,DanCiuriak,Avi Goldfarb,Chiara del Giovane,GaelGrooby, Janos Ferencz, Martina Ferracane, Emily Jones, OliaKanevskaia, Kholofelo Kugler, Javier López González, HeidiLund, Jiabin Luo, Petros Mavroidis, Joshua Meltzer, NehaMishra, Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås, Eduardo Paranhos, FrankPasquale,Shin-Yi Peng,Robert Teh,María del CarmenVásquez Callo, Daniel Trefler and Sujin Yuk. Valuableresearch assistance was provided by RenateBusstra.Additional research support was provided byPrabisha Basnet, Marco Cheang, Saniya Khanna and JuliaCollado Serrano. The following divisions in the WTO Secretariat providedvaluable comments on drafts of the report: Responsesto the survey mentioned in Annex 4 werereceivedfrom Susan Aaronson,Dan Ciuriak,JohannesFritz, Olia Kanevskaia, Kholofelo Kugler, Heidi Lund, PetrosMavroidis, Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås, Eduardo Paranhos andShin-Yi Peng. Agricultureand Commodities Division(Cédric Pene,ChristianeWolff);CouncilandTradeNegotiationsCommitteeDivision(StefaniaGallo);DevelopmentDivision(Lucas Chiodi,Michael Roberts,Raúl Torres);Economic Research and Statistics Division (Marc Auboin,Marc Bacchetta, Gabrielle Marceau, Jose-Antonio Monteiro,Roberta Piermartini); Legal Affairs Division (Jorge Castro,Maria Pereyra, Muhammad Ahsan Ali); Intellectual Property,Gove