2024年气候变化与核能发电报告

ClimateChangeandNuclearPower FINANCING NUCLEAR ENERGY IN LOW CARBON TRANSITIONS FOREWORD Financing Nuclear is Centralto the Shift to Net Zero RAFAEL MARIANOGROSSIDirector General,International AtomicEnergy Agency The inclusion of nuclear in the first Global Stocktake under the ParisAgreement was nothing short of historic. After almost 30 years of UnitedNations climate conferences, countries – both those using nuclear power andthose not – agreed that reaching global climate goals would require furtherinvestment in nuclear power. This acknowledgement reflects how muchglobal attitudes to nuclear have shifted in the past few years. Last December at COP28 in Dubai, more than 20 countries also pledged towork towards tripling nuclear power capacity by 2050. The twin catalysts ofthe change were the urgency of the climate crisis and the renewed push forenergy security. When it comes to nuclear, fact based analysis and sciencehave finally overcome misunderstanding and ideology. Now the challenge is to turn ambition into the hundreds of additional nuclearreactors we need to reach net zero. Time is of the essence. In the past year, levels of harmful greenhouse gas emissions and globaltemperatures reached new record highs. A relentless succession of floods,fires and droughts warn that we are running out of time. In March 2024, the IAEA shifted action into a higher gear when, together withthe Government of Belgium, we hosted the first Nuclear Energy Summit.World leaders from more than 30 countries and the European Union gatheredunder Brussels’s famous Atomium landmark and agreed to urgently put inplace conducive financing conditions and to increase investment. The IAEA’s support goes beyond high level summits. Every day, whether through analysis or assistance in the field, the IAEA ishelping Member States reach their goals. There is hardly a more importantone than ensuring that we leave coming generations an inhabitable planet. The scale and versatility of nuclear energy as a tool for achieving thatgoal are often overlooked. The IAEA’s Atoms4NetZero Initiative builds ondecades of experience supporting countries in developing capacity in energyplanning. It provides analytical tools and expertise to help countries assessthe usefulness of nuclear power for them, including in the form of innovativetechnologies, such as small modular reactors (SMRs). Introducing a nuclearprogramme for the first time is a multi-step process. Through its MilestonesApproach, the IAEA assists countries from Africa to Asia in establishing theinfrastructure necessary for a safe, secure and sustainable nuclear powerprogramme. Across its near century-long lifetime a nuclear power plant is affordable andcost competitive. Financing the upfront costs can be a challenge however,especially in market driven economies and developing countries. Theprivate sector will increasingly need to contribute to financing, but so toowill other institutions. The IAEA is engaging multilateral development banks,including the World Bank, to highlight their potential role in making sure thatdeveloping countries have more and better financing options when it comesto investing in nuclear energy. Demand is also coming from digital technology companies. The IAEA ishelping to inform their decisions as they look to nuclear to power theirgrowing use of artificial intelligence (AI) and data centres. Emerging SMR technologies hold immense promise to deliver clean energy.The 90 or so designs under development are a testament to the level ofinnovation and excitement these technologies are generating. But thereis work to do before their potential can be realized. That is why the IAEA,through its Nuclear Harmonization and Standardization Initiative (NHSI), hasbrought together the nuclear community to develop common regulatory andindustrial approaches to facilitate global deployment and financing of SMRs. Energy-hungry technology, electrification, the shift to low carbon energy andpopulation growth are all contributing to greater demand for nuclear. TheIAEA’s latest high case projection for nuclear power capacity in 2050 sees a150% increase from current levels to 950 gigawatts. This reflects decisionsaround the world supporting the long term operation of existing reactors,new construction of large nuclear power plants, and the development anddeployment of SMRs. Realizing an increase of this scale requires annualinvestment of more than US $100 billion between now and 2050 – a fractionof what the world invests in energy infrastructure overall, but a big changefrom the level of investment in nuclear over the past 20 years. This latest edition ofClimate Change and Nuclear Powercontinues theIAEA’s contribution over more than 20 years to the analysis of the role ofnuclear energy in responding to climate change. Our work in this area thisyear includes supporting the G20 Energy Transitions Working Group, underthe Brazilian presidency. The IAEA will again be at COP this November