2024年汽车报告

Regulations, energy sources, pricing An international survey carried out in 16 countries For years, almost since its very inception, theautomotive sector developed with little or nothingto hinder its growth and success. Any adversity,such as the oil crisis of the early 1970s, wasovercome relatively smoothly. The succession ofinnovations that saw automobiles evolve from theFord Model T to the SUV did not, however, reducedtheir cost, making them the only “mass-market”product to distinguish themselves by becoming evermore expensive. Even so, price remained the maincriterion that swayed the purchasing decisionsof consumers. As part of our ongoing mission to make sense of thelatest trends and identify the direction in which theautomotive sector is heading, we thought it wouldbe useful to look at the underlying reasons for whatis undoubtedly a pivotal moment for the industry.Today, motorists are losing their points of referenceand are no longer really sure which brand to go for,as they weigh up the value of switching to electriccars. Our use of the term “fog” is also a very topicalmetaphor for what is happening to our climate. ThisObservatoire Cetelem 2024once again revealscontrasting viewpoints, some surprising and someconcerning. These will no doubt prompt a responseamong all automotive stakeholders, particularly thecarmakers themselves. But if there is one thing thateveryone will surely agree on, it is the need for thisfog to clear as quickly as possible, so as not to bedetrimental to us all. Various constraints, not least those of anenvironmental nature in the broadest sense of theterm, then gained more weight. Then the powersthat be decided that electricity would be the soleenergy source used in the cars of the future.And then,financial, economic and geopolitical crisescame one after the other in what seemed like theblink of an eye. As car sales faltered, the automotive sectoras a whole was thrown into doubt and cameunder unprecedented pressure.This pressure has resulted in a plethora of newregulations being introduced over a very shortspace of time. Flavien NeuvyHead of L’Observatoire Cetelem L’OBSERVATOIRECETELEM Founded in 1985 and headed by Flavien Neuvy, L’Observatoire Cetelemis an economicresearch and intelligence unit of BNP Paribas Personal Finance. Its mission is to observe, highlight and interpret shifts in consumption patterns in Franceand abroad. To fulfil this ambition, L’Observatoire Cetelem has set up a range of toolsthat rely on diverse and complementary content, including: -The Observatoires: Two highly respected annual surveys conducted internationally:a worldwide survey on the automotive market (16 countries) and a European surveyon consumer trends (15 countries). -The zOOm reports, which focus on lifestylesand explore major themes (“The Frenchand theirfinances”, “Food at a time of toughfinancial choices”, etc.) in three stages,by seeking the opinion of French consumers via three-wave surveys. TABLE OF CONTENTS A SHIFTING CONTEXT THAT ISDIFFICULT TO GRASP07 Price,first and foremost08Energy costs, but that’s not all09A future marked by price hikes11Buying a car: a difficult decision13 A BLURRING OF THE LINES17 Vague information is hampering decision making18Motorists face diverse and complex regulations22LEZs: an overarching sense of injustice27Technical regulations that areindeed very technical34 BUYING A CAR CAN WAIT41 Faith in the future and innovation42Electric cars are taking centre stage... but raisenew questions48Motorists would like support to switch to electric vehicles56China versus the rest of the world62The time to buy... or not70 EPILOGUE78 MARKET FIGURES95 A SHIFTING CONTEXTTHAT IS DIFFICULTTO GRASP1 Like all consumer goods, car sales are heavily dependent on price, which is the mainfactor that future buyers take into account. As we are all aware, this is a criterionthat has become even more salient and crucial in these highly inflationary times.Against this backdrop of economic andfinancial uncertainty, the difficulty involvedin making a purchasing decision cannot be reduced to economic factors alone,and this is ultimately not a choice that can be made lightly. Price,firstandforemost After energy,vehicle maintenance isthe expense hit hardestby inflation. BRANDS HAVE CAPITALISED This sense that prices were too high reflected thefact that most brands had gambled on achievinghigh margins, to the detriment of sales volumes,which allowed them to make record profits. AUTOMOBILE MY DEAR Today, the price war seems to have resumed.Ever the disruptor, Tesla recently lowered the pricesof its cars by several thousand euros overnight.Chinese manufacturers, including MG and BYD, aregearing up to launch entry-level models that willcompete directly with the most popular Europeanofferings. With their war chests now bolstered,some manufacturers say they are relativelyconfident about the upcoming battle. In thefirsthalf of the year, Stellantis posted profits of€10.9