月度策略报告：似浮萍，无依靠

2024年11月06日 似浮萍，无依靠 观点摘要： [table_research]分析师：詹建平从业资格证号：F0259856投资咨询证号：Z0002423 研究所能源化工期货（期权）研究室TEL：010-82295006Email：zhanjianping@swhysc.com ➢2024年10月行情回顾：国际原油呈倒V型走势，回吐因地缘冲突带来的风险溢价。PX继续下行，再度跌破7000元/吨的关口，主因是成本端没有支撑和开工处于高位带来的累库。PTA成本定价逻辑并未改变，银十旺季没有突出表现。乙二醇跌幅在聚酯商品中是最小。 ➢后市展望：PX方面，成本支撑不足但需求端支持尚可，预计价格运行区间为6700-7200元/吨。总体来看，11月PX供应较前期有所减少，而需求预期仍尚可的情况下，PX延续去库走势。在成本没有明显提振下，PX依靠自身基本面仅有脉冲性上行的可能，预计下月仍表现弱势。PTA方面，追随成本变化，预计价格运行区间为4750-5200元/吨。从成本来看，没有稳定的利多支撑。从基本面来看，逸盛宁波重启和福海创提负运行加剧供应端的压力，PTA的产量仍将维持在高位。旺季结束，11月起下游聚酯的刚需逐步降低，若气温骤降将会带来阶段性行情，但仅靠此扭转当下的供需结构实属困难。总体来看，基本面难有亮点，成本端相对疲软，预计下月仍表现弱势。MEG方面，底部有支撑，预计价格运行区间为4400-4800元/吨。近期乙二醇装置检修集中，但后续检修装置陆续重启或带动供应量逐步回升。年末下游逐步进入淡季，聚酯开工虽存下滑预期，但预计仍能保持在87%以上。10月底部分进口船只因台风封航延迟入库，但是伊朗货装港仍有延迟，月内难以形成集中到港，港口库存上升的概率较小，给价格带来底部支撑。11月后美国总统选举带来的宏观地缘政治风险仍然较大，成本端无法提供支撑。总体来看，刚需消耗尚可，煤制装置的变动和进口到港将是主要影响因素，预计下月窄幅震荡。 相关报告 PX&PTA20241009《情绪消退后等待需求拐点出现》20241014《等待需求拐点出现的乏味期》20241021《跟随成本下行，旺季需求似淡季》20241028《旺季未能引发阶段性行情》MEG20241009《港口库存下降和下游需求改善推动正反馈》20241014《港口库存保持低位，回调空间有限》20241021《产销不济导致聚酯提货偏低，港口库存将有回升》20241028《沙特和美国货源集中到港，去库接近尾声》 风险提示：地缘冲突对原油的冲击 目录 （一）行情回顾：弱势，还是弱势.......................................................................................................................................5（二）重整装置变动未能对供应产生影响...........................................................................................................................6（三）PXN处于年内低位，PX-MX价差波动较大.............................................................................................................8（四）9月进口明显增加，社库进入累库通道.....................................................................................................................9 二、PTA.....................................................................................................................................................................10 （一）行情回顾：下行无法止步.........................................................................................................................................10（二）加工费在下跌中保持稳定.........................................................................................................................................11（三）库存累积且处于同期高位.........................................................................................................................................13（四）出口表现稳定.............................................................................................................................................................13 （一）行情回顾：回落但均价上升.....................................................................................................................................14（二）煤制装置变动频繁.....................................................................................................................................................14（三）聚酯工厂提货谨慎，港口发货明显下降..................................................................................................................16（四）进口到港表现中性，月底台风影响港口封航..........................................................................................................17 （一）行情回顾：旺季确实不旺.........................................................................................................................................18（二）开工提升空间有限，让利才有产销放量..................................................................................................................19（三）终端需求不及预期，库存低位回升.........................................................................................................................21（四）聚酯出口较齐下滑.....................................................................................................................................................22 五、纺服消费.................................................................................................................................................................23 （一）新增订单体量不及同期.............................................................................................................................................23（二）9月纺织服装出口额同比下降..................................................................................................................................25（三）发达国家纺服进口同比均有下滑.............................................................................................................................25 六、后市展望及主要结论...............................................................................................................................................26 图表目录 图1：国际原油期货价格走势（美元/桶）·····························································································································5图2：聚酯上游原料价格走势（美元/吨）·····························································································································5图3：PX与原油价格走势（美元/桶，美元/吨）·················································································································5图4：PXCFR中国现货价格变化（美元/吨）······················································································································5图5：PX期货行情（手，元/吨）·············