油脂日报：棕榈油库存持续去库，油脂震荡上涨

研究院农产品组 油脂观点 研究员 邓绍瑞010-64405663dengshaorui@htfc.com从业资格号：F3047125投资咨询号：Z0015474 ■市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2501合约8996元/吨，环比上涨136元，涨幅1.53%；昨日收盘豆油2501合约8290元/吨，环比上涨84元，涨幅1.02%；昨日收盘菜油2501合约9383元/吨，环比上涨110元，涨幅1.19%。现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9170元/吨，环比上涨80元，涨幅0.88%，现货基差P01+174，环比下跌56元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8290元/吨，环比上涨30元/吨，涨幅0.36%，现货基差Y01+0，环比下跌54元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9410元/吨，环比上涨110元，涨幅1.18%，现货基差OI01+27，环比无变化。 李馨lixin@htfc.com从业资格号：F03120775投资咨询号：Z0019724 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，印尼棕榈油协会（GAPKI）数据显示，印尼8月棕榈油出口量同比增加15%至238万吨；产量环比增加至399万吨，7月为362万吨；库存环比减少至245万吨，7月为251万吨。阿根廷豆油(11月船期)C&F价格1096美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调11美元/吨；阿根廷豆油(1月船期)C&F价格1065美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调18美元/吨。进口菜籽油C&F报价：加拿大菜油(11月船期)1060美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；加拿大菜油(1月船期)1030美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平。 联系人 白旭宇010-64405663baixuyu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114139 薛钧元010-64405663xuejunyuan@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114096 昨日三大油脂价格震荡上涨，受BMD毛棕榈油期货上涨影响，叠加国内棕榈油库存持续去库，三大油脂震荡上涨。棕榈油方面，棕榈油自身供需面较好，宏观的利好也给了棕榈油助力，但是近期原油回调，拖累了棕榈油。随着季节性减产的到来，棕榈油产量瓶颈或更明显，宏观要是没有大利空，原油也企稳的情况下，棕榈油预计继续维持震荡上涨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 ■策略 谨慎看涨 ■风险 无 目录 策略摘要............................................................................................................................................................................................1油脂市场分析....................................................................................................................................................................................4 图表 图1:全球大豆库销比丨单位：%...................................................................................................................................................6图2:全球菜籽库销比丨单位：%...................................................................................................................................................6图3:马来西亚初榨棕榈油产量丨单位：万吨...............................................................................................................................6图4:马来西亚棕榈油单产丨单位：吨/公顷.................................................................................................................................6图5:马来西亚棕榈油出口丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................6图6:马来西亚棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................6图7:印度尼西亚棕榈油出口量丨单位：万吨...............................................................................................................................7图8:印尼棕榈油期末库存丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................7图9:中国主要油厂豆油库存丨单位：万吨..................................................................................................................................7图10:中国沿海油厂菜油库存丨单位：万吨.................................................................................................................................7图11:华东菜油库存丨单位：万吨.................................................................................................................................................7图12:中国棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨............................................................................................................................................7图13:三大油脂库存丨单位：万吨................................................................................................................................................8图14:菜油进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................8图15:中国豆油进口量丨单位：万吨............................................................................................................................................8图16:中国棕榈液油进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................8图17:天津一级豆油基差丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................8图18:广东棕榈油基差丨单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................................8图19:江苏四级菜油基差丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图20:广东区域豆-棕油价差丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图21:广东区域豆-菜油价差丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图22:菜油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图23:豆油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图24:棕榈油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨...................