Morning Brief

MarketResearch MorningBrief [October23rd,2024] MorningBrief ZHOUJinyu021‐38674924zhoujinyu011178@gtjas.comS0880516080007 Contents TopRecommendations ●A‐ShareStrategySpecial:Brazil ●RealEstateSector:UpdateReport ●Vastdata(603138):OW,TP@RMB25.98 ●WindPowerSector:UpdateReport LatestReports ●GuobangPharma(605507):OW,TP@RMB25.05↑ ●PingAnInsurance(601318):OW,TP@RMB67.26↑ ●JinboBiopharma(832982):OW,TP@RMB318.90 SectorRatingsoftheMonthMarketStrategyWeeklyViewpoint 本报告内容译自同日发布的简体中文报告《国泰君安晨报》，报告观点及内容如有任何不一致的地方，一律以该简体中文版报告为准。 TopRecommendations A‐ShareStrategySpecial:Brazil Brazil:(1)Resources:richnaturalresources;ayoungerdemographiccomposition; (2)PoliticalEnvironment:developeddemocraticsystem;complicatedpoliticalsituation; (3)EconomicStatus:hugedomesticdemand;relianceonbulkcommoditiesexport;(4)StockMarket:institutionalinvestors‐dominatedmarket;high‐levelopenness. RealEstateSector:UpdateReport OnOctober21st,2024,PBoClowered1yLPRby25bpfrom3.35%to3.1%,and5y‐and‐aboveLPRby25bpfrom3.85%to3.6%.Sofarthisyear,1yLPRhasbeenloweredby35bpand5y‐and‐aboveLPRhasbeenloweredby60bp.AfterPBoCloweredtheinterestrateoftheoutstandingmortgagetoLPR‐30bp,thisexclusiveLPRcutbyPBoCwasanotherbiginterestcutsincethisSeptember. Thedeclineofinterestratewillhelptoreducethedesirableassetreturnandreducethepressurefromassetdevaluation.Weadvisetopayattentiontothepricesignalslater.Offeaturedcompanies,werecommend(1)(theleadingrealestatedevelopersoflowleverage)CMShekou(001979),CSSD(601512)andPolyDevelopments(600048);and(2)(M&A)CIFIHoldings(0884.HK)andSUNACChina(1918.HK). Vastdata(603138):OW,TP@RMB25.98 [Rating:OW(Prv:N/A);TP:RMB25.98(Prv:N/A);MP:RMB15.14;Mkt‐Cap:RMB4458mn] WeforecasttheCompany’s2024‐2026EPSofRMB(‐0.06),0.33and0.83.Withreferencetothevaluationsofcomparablecompanies,wesuggest2025PSof13.66xandcorrespondingtargetpriceofRMB25.98(2025PEof78.73x).“Overweight”rating. WindPowerSector:UpdateReport Wesuggest“Overweight”ratingforthewindpowerindustry.Therisingdemandfromoverseaswindpowerindustryhasaggravatedthebottleneckofsupply,fromwhich,theexportersofwindturbine,towerandsubmarinecablewilltakebenefit.Offeaturedcompanies,werecommendGoldwind(002202),MingYang(601615),SanyHeavyEnergy(688349),Windey(300772),DajinHeavyIndustry(002487)andOrientCables(603606). LatestReports GuobangPharma(605507):OW,TP@RMB25.05↑ [Rating:OW(Prv:OW);TP:RMB25.05(Prv:RMB20.80);MP:RMB20.63;Mkt‐Cap:RMB11529mn] TheCompanyreported2024Q1~3revenueofRMB4.418bn(+9.00%yoy)andnetprofitofRMB579mn(+18.36%yoy),ofwhich,2024Q3revenuewasRMB1.526bn (+22.68%yoy)andnetprofitwasRMB1.743bn(+32.43%yoy),inlinewithexpectation.InviewofthestablepricesoftheCompany’sstapleveterinarydrugsandtheheatedsalesofantibiotics,weraiseourforecastsoftheCompany’s2024‐2026EPSfromRMB0.98,1.15and1.42toRMB1.40,1.67and2.01.Withreferencetothevaluationsofcomparablecompanies,wesuggest2025PEof15xandraisethecorrespondingtargetpricetoRMB25.05(from20.80).“Overweight”ratingmaintained. PingAnInsurance(601318):OW,TP@RMB67.26↑ [Rating:OW(Prv:OW);TP:RMB67.26(Prv:RMB56.00);MP:RMB57.06;Mkt‐Cap:RMB1039076mn] TheCompanyreported2024Q1~3netprofitgrowthof36.1%yoy,inlinewithexpectationmainlybecauseoftherisinginvestmentreturnandthenon‐recurrentgains/lossesfromtheconsolidationofLU.com.Theoperatingprofitrose5.5%yoy,andtheprofitgrowthratesofthethreemajorbusinesses(i.e.lifeinsurance,propertyinsuranceandbank)were3.0%,39.7%and0.2%yoy,respectively.Inviewoftherisinginvestmentreturn,weraiseourforecastsoftheCompany’s2024‐2026EPStoRMB7.65(from5.74,+33.2%),8.67(from6.44,+34.6%)and9.88(from7.09,+39.3%), andraisethecorrespondingtargetpricetoRMB67.26(2024P/EVof0.75x).“Overweight”ratingmaintained. JinboBiopharma(832982):OW,TP@RMB318.90 [Rating:OW(Prv:OW);TP:RMB318.90(Prv:N/A);MP:RMB231.49;Mkt‐Cap:RMB20490mn] ThesalevolumeoftheCompany’ssingleproductofWeiyimeicollagenrosemorequicklythanexpectationin2024Q3,andtheoverheadsratioalsowentdownbecauseofscaleeffect.BecausetheCompanyhasmuchlargergrowthpotentialthanitspeers,wesuggest2025PEof30xandcorrespondingtargetpriceofRMB318.9.“Overweight”ratingmaintained. SectorRatingsoftheMonth RatingSector OW BuildingMaterials,ComprehensiveFinance,Insurance,CommercialBanking,Coal,Food&Drink, Pharmaceutical,RealEstate,MachineryManufacturing,Transportation,ConstructionEngineering,NonferrousMetals HouseholdAppliances,TransportationEquipment,MassMedia&Cultural,Agriculture,Textile& NT UWInformationTechnology,InformationScience Garments,Retailing,PowerEquipment,SocialServices,PublicUtilities,Iron&Steel Note:TheratingsabovearemadebyGTJAStrategyTeam,whichmaynotalwaysbeinlinewiththeopinionsofGTJAindustryanalystsduetodifferentemphasesandtimerangeswhentheseratingsaremade. MarketStrategyWeeklyViewpoint(LastUpdate:October20th,2024)A‐ShareStrategyWeekly:EnteringCorrections Thedisputesbetweenthepolicyexpectationsnarrowed,andthemarketreboundebbedintocorrections.TheactualmarketperformancessofarareinlinewithourviewpointsinceSeptember24ththat“thestockindiceswillgoupfirstandthenentercorrections,andbluechipswilltaketheleadofmarketrise,followedbygr