纸浆周报：纸浆进口新低库存降，货币流动性同向减少

银河期货纸浆周报 纸浆进口新低库存降，货币流动性同向减少 数据报告 周内，银星10月报价环比上涨+20美元/吨，报收785美元/吨。明星10月报价环比下跌-10美元/吨，报收560美元/吨。10月至今，阔针价差均值报收-1493元/吨，同比走弱-805元/吨，跌幅创2021年6月以来新高。 研究员 潘盛杰 周内，国内五大主港库存环比去库，报收165.0万吨，同比去库-20.1万吨，自2月以来持续去库。与之相对的，9月，国内纸浆进口重量环比下滑，报收267.6万吨，同比减少-58.9万吨，创1998年有统计以来的新低，连续5个月同比减量，利多SP单边。 期货从业证号F3035353投资咨询证号Z0014607联系方式手机号16621622706 海外平衡方面。8月，欧洲针叶浆消费量环比减少报收24.2万吨，本色浆消费量环比减少报收0.6万吨，合计24.8万吨，同比减少-2.8万吨，近2个月环、同比减量。8月，日本纸浆产成品存货指数环比去库，报收94.7点，创2023年10月以来新低，同比累库+1.0点，增幅持续放缓。 国内宏观方面。9月：国内M1同比下滑-7.4%，创1995年有统计以来新低；M2同比上涨+6.8%，连续3个月边际回升；M2-M1剪刀差报收+14.2%，同样创1995年有统计以来新高。这表明9月流动性进一步枯竭。若不计价政策逆周期驱动，国内流动性现状利空SP估值。 邮箱panshengjie_qh@chinastock.com.cn 基本面一般。 目录 目录....................................................................................................................................................2第一部分说明...............................................................................................................................5一、综合指数..........................................................................................................................6第二部分宏观供应.....................................................................................................................7一、海外数据..........................................................................................................................71.美国新屋开工..................................................................................................................72.日本油气煤进口成本....................................................................................................7第三部分微观供应|木材端.....................................................................................................9一、海外数据..........................................................................................................................91.美国CME木材期货......................................................................................................92.俄罗斯木材业................................................................................................................103.马来西亚木材业...........................................................................................................12二、国内数据........................................................................................................................131.进口量-锯材...................................................................................................................13第四部分贸易流通|纸浆端...................................................................................................15一、绝对价格........................................................................................................................151.价格-针叶浆...................................................................................................................152.期现价格.........................................................................................................................16二、相对价差........................................................................................................................161.交割利润：人民币针叶浆基差季节性.................................................................162.交割利润：美元针叶浆（银星）基差季节性...................................................203.期货市场.........................................................................................................................244.跨品种价差：非标基差&加工利润.....................................................................26三、海外数据........................................................................................................................301.进口金额-美国纸浆及废纸.......................................................................................302.加拿大交通运输...........................................................................................................313.欧洲纸浆库存&消费...................................................................................................344.日本纸浆.........................................................................................................................365.韩国贸易顺差-回收纸.................................................................................................38四、国内数据........................................................................................................................39 1.进口-纸浆 ........................................................................................................................392.纸浆产量.........................................................................................................................403.纸浆库存.........................................................................................................................414.沿海货物吞吐总量.......................................................................................................435.进出口总额....................................................................................................................446.CCFI出口集装箱运价-欧洲航线............................................................................44第五部分微观消费|造纸端.......................