2024年非洲投资指南

FOREWORD3WHY AFRICA?5A MODEL FOR AFRICA11WHERE TO INVEST IN AFRICA14INVESTABLE MARKETS SEEN FROM 30,000 FEET ABOVE20ARCHETYPES26COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS41THE AFRICAN CONTINENTAL FREE TRADE AREA135SUSTAINABILITY IN AFRICA139CONCLUSION145APPENDIX: METHODOLOGY146REFERENCES153 FOREWORD WHY AFRICA? FOREWORD A MODELFOR AFRICA WHERE TOINVEST INAFRICA INVESTABLEMARKETS SEENFROM 30,000FEET ABOVE Africa is navigating significant turbulence andtransformations from multiple fronts. Geopolitically,there are two major wars that are driving the worldeconomies into three axes – United States, China andthe non-aligned and persistent tensions between theUS and China are disrupting global value chains. Economically, global inflation has proved morepersistent than initially thought, forcing major centralbanks to maintain policy rates at high levels for longerthan anticipated and keeping the cost of funding formany African countries elevated. performance and potential, market accessibility andinnovation, economic stability and investment climate,as well as in social and human development – all ofwhich are factors that have been proven to determinea country’s progress and therefore itsinvestment potential. ARCHETYPES COUNTRYSNAPSHOTS THE AFRICANCONTINENTALFREE TRADE AREA Amid these cross currents, Zambia and Ghana wereforced to undergo painful debt restructuring processesthat resulted in currency devaluations. Egypt andNigeria, on the other hand, had policy-driven currencydevaluations due to misalignments in their balance ofpayments. In this age of social media disinformation, aheadline that reads “Africa is no longer investible.” The war between Russia and Ukraine – the firstmajor war in Europe in many years – has fuelled thedeglobalisation which gained momentum from theTrump administration’s trade taxes on China and waslater reinforced by the global policy response to theCOVID-19 pandemic. The other war, between Hamasand Israel, is also adding to global divisions on moral andhumanitarian grounds but in less disruptive ways totrade so far. These are the factors that this report, theRMB Whereto Invest in Africa(WTIIA), amalgamates using a simpleyet robust methodology to consistently produce onemetric that gives an investor a sense of how each ofthe 31 countries we analysed, jointly accounting for 92%of Africa’s GDP, stacks up. The methodology used stillallows the investor to uncover the underlying driversof a country’s performance that inform its ranking. TheWTIIA report provides insights of where policy can be SUSTAINABILITYIN AFRICA CONCLUSION APPENDIX:METHODOLOGY But Africa is not a country. It is a complex and diversecontinent of 54 countries that differ in economic REFERENCES process to augment due diligence when determiningwhere to deploy capital for better risk-adjusted returnsand impact within the diverse countries of Africa. Forpolicymakers, we hope this report is a resource to helpidentify areas where policy can be improved toattract investments. used to change countries’ future performances andtherefore their relative investment attractiveness. FOREWORD WHY AFRICA? It is difficult, if not impossible, to perfectly characterisea country’s investment potential using one all-encompassing indicator due to the many factors thatdrive investment attractiveness. Therefore, there is aneed to constantly update methodologies from thosethat are based on fewer dimensions of a country’sstructure to those that have more encompassingdimensions that capture a country’s complexity in abetter way. A MODELFOR AFRICA WHERE TOINVEST INAFRICA We invite you to partner with us in the developmentof Africa, a place we call home, and her people unitedin diversity. INVESTABLEMARKETS SEENFROM 30,000FEET ABOVE Isaah Mhlanga ARCHETYPES Chief Economist, RMB This is exactly what the 2024 WTIIA report does.The availability of new data sources for many Africancountries has enabled and necessitated an evolutionfrom the methodology we have used since theinception of the WTIIA report in 2011. Our updatedmethodology is intuitive yet robust and still maintainstransparency by using publicly available data. COUNTRYSNAPSHOTS THE AFRICANCONTINENTALFREE TRADE AREA SUSTAINABILITYIN AFRICA CONCLUSION This report does not provide a definitive considerationin deciding Where to Invest in Africa. We hope thatinvestors will use it as a valuable part of any investment APPENDIX:METHODOLOGY REFERENCES FOREWORD WHY AFRICA? WHY AFRICA? A MODELFOR AFRICA WHERE TOINVEST INAFRICA Although the exact number of countries across the Africancontinent is contested – most observers agree that the continentis made up of 54 countries – there is broad consensus that thecontinent boasts a plethora of cultures, languages, ethnicities,religions, and beyond. INVESTABLEMARKETS SEENFROM 30,000FEET ABOVE ARCHETYPES COUNTRYSNAPSHOTS Africa ranges from vast copper belts and fertile,agriculture-based economies to technology hubsand tourist destinations. It