油脂日报：外部市场影响，油脂持续震荡

研究院农产品组 油脂观点 研究员 邓绍瑞010-64405663dengshaorui@htfc.com从业资格号：F3047125投资咨询号：Z0015474 ■市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2501合约8852元/吨，环比上涨6元，涨幅0.07%；昨日收盘豆油2501合约8222元/吨，环比下跌44元，跌幅0.53%；昨日收盘菜油2501合约9477元/吨，环比下跌119元，跌幅1.24%。现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9200元/吨，环比上涨140元，涨幅1.55%，现货基差P01+348，环比上涨134元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8250元/吨，环比下跌50元/吨，跌幅0.60%，现货基差Y01+28，环比下跌6元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9510元/吨，环比下跌140元，跌幅1.45%，现货基差OI01+33，环比下跌21元。 李馨lixin@htfc.com从业资格号：F03120775投资咨询号：Z0019724 近期市场咨询汇总：据Mysteel调研显示，截至10月12日，沿海地区主要油厂菜籽库存53.45万吨，环比上周增加9.65万吨；菜粕库存6.44万吨，环比上周增加0.45万吨；未执行合同为20.91万吨，环比上周增加0.30万吨。据国家粮油信息中心，国庆假期油厂开机率限产停机，大豆压榨量下降。监测显示，截至10月11日一周，国内大豆压榨量154万吨，此前一周为151万吨，节后油厂复工复产积极，开机率大幅回升，预计本周国内油厂大豆压榨量约215万吨。 联系人 白旭宇010-64405663baixuyu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114139 昨日三大油脂价格持续震荡，受中东地缘政治冲突和原油需求前景改善影响，油脂持续高位震荡。豆油方面，豆油目前由于期货盘面上涨，市场多以一口价成交为主，油厂仍有催提现象，基差仍有偏弱趋势。原油近期强势反弹，给了油脂提振，棕榈油和菜籽油的利多也给了油脂多头信心，但是豆油自身庞大的供应问题始终悬而未决，决定了了豆油在油脂中始终表现较差并跟随其他油脂波动。 薛钧元010-64405663xuejunyuan@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 ■策略 谨慎看涨 ■风险 无 目录 策略摘要............................................................................................................................................................................................1油脂市场分析....................................................................................................................................................................................4 图表 图1:全球大豆库销比丨单位：%...................................................................................................................................................6图2:全球菜籽库销比丨单位：%...................................................................................................................................................6图3:马来西亚初榨棕榈油产量丨单位：万吨...............................................................................................................................6图4:马来西亚棕榈油单产丨单位：吨/公顷.................................................................................................................................6图5:马来西亚棕榈油出口丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................6图6:马来西亚棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................6图7:印度尼西亚棕榈油出口量丨单位：万吨...............................................................................................................................7图8:印尼棕榈油期末库存丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................7图9:中国主要油厂豆油库存丨单位：万吨..................................................................................................................................7图10:中国沿海油厂菜油库存丨单位：万吨.................................................................................................................................7图11:华东菜油库存丨单位：万吨.................................................................................................................................................7图12:中国棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨............................................................................................................................................7图13:三大油脂库存丨单位：万吨................................................................................................................................................8图14:菜油进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................8图15:中国豆油进口量丨单位：万吨............................................................................................................................................8图16:中国棕榈液油进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................8图17:天津一级豆油基差丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................8图18:广东棕榈油基差丨单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................................8图19:江苏四级菜油基差丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图20:广东区域豆-棕油价差丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图21:广东区域豆-菜油价差丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图22:菜油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图23:豆油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图24:棕榈油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨..................................