油脂日报：外部市场影响，油脂震荡回调

研究院农产品组 油脂观点 研究员 邓绍瑞010-64405663dengshaorui@htfc.com从业资格号：F3047125投资咨询号：Z0015474 ■市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2501合约8690元/吨，环比下跌56元，跌幅0.64%；昨日收盘豆油2501合约8168元/吨，环比下跌12元，跌幅0.15%；昨日收盘菜油2501合约9490元/吨，环比下跌22元，跌幅0.23%。现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货8940元/吨，环比下跌40元，跌幅0.45%，现货基差P01+250，环比上涨16；天津地区一级豆油现货8200元/吨，环比下跌10元，跌幅0.12%，现货基差Y01+32，环比上涨2；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9540元/吨，环比下跌20元，跌幅0.21%；现货基差暂无报价。 李馨lixin@htfc.com从业资格号：F03120775投资咨询号：Z0019724 近期市场咨询汇总：10月9日马来西亚棕榈油离岸价为1072.5美元，较上日跌2.5美元，进口到岸价为1102.5美元，较上日跌2.5美元，进口成本价为9321.86元，较上日涨28.6元。进口利润为负381.86元/吨，较上日下跌68.6元/吨。国家粮油信息中心监测显示，9月份国内主要油厂大豆压榨量914万吨，较8月份增加22万吨，较去年同期增加68万吨。预计10月份油厂大豆压榨量在750万吨左右，去年同期为710万吨，过去三年均值为730万吨。 联系人 白旭宇010-64405663baixuyu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114139 昨日三大油脂价格震荡下跌，受原油和美豆油价格下跌影响，三大油脂震荡回调，小幅下跌。菜油方面，整体看，国内宏观政策转暖和中加贸易摩擦的不确定性给了菜油多头想象空间，但菜油短期内涨幅过快，目前有多种油脂性价比高于菜油，对菜油消费有一定限制，后期需后市关注宏观经济政策以及反倾销调查结果等信息。 薛钧元010-64405663xuejunyuan@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114096 ■策略 谨慎看涨 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 ■风险 无 目录 策略摘要............................................................................................................................................................................................1油脂市场分析....................................................................................................................................................................................4 图表 图1:全球大豆库销比丨单位：%...................................................................................................................................................6图2:全球菜籽库销比丨单位：%...................................................................................................................................................6图3:马来西亚初榨棕榈油产量丨单位：万吨...............................................................................................................................6图4:马来西亚棕榈油单产丨单位：吨/公顷.................................................................................................................................6图5:马来西亚棕榈油出口丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................6图6:马来西亚棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................6图7:印度尼西亚棕榈油出口量丨单位：万吨...............................................................................................................................7图8:印尼棕榈油期末库存丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................7图9:中国主要油厂豆油库存丨单位：万吨..................................................................................................................................7图10:中国沿海油厂菜油库存丨单位：万吨.................................................................................................................................7图11:华东菜油库存丨单位：万吨.................................................................................................................................................7图12:中国棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨............................................................................................................................................7图13:三大油脂库存丨单位：万吨................................................................................................................................................8图14:菜油进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................8图15:中国豆油进口量丨单位：万吨............................................................................................................................................8图16:中国棕榈液油进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................8图17:天津一级豆油基差丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................8图18:广东棕榈油基差丨单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................................8图19:江苏四级菜油基差丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图20:广东区域豆-棕油价差丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图21:广东区域豆-菜油价差丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图22:菜油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图23:豆油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图24:棕榈油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.....................................................................................