新兴市场和发展中经济体的公正和包容性能源转型：能源规划、融资、可持续燃料和社会层面2024

AJUSTANDINCLUSIVEENERGYTRANSITIONINEMERGINGMARKETSANDDEVELOPINGECONOMIESENERGYPLANNING,FINANCING,SUSTAINABLEFUELSAND SOCIALDIMENSIONS CONTENTS ACRONYMSANDABBREVIATIONS6 EXECUTIVESUMMARY7 1.INTRODUCTION11 2.AFFORDABLEFINANCINGFORTHEENERGYTRANSITIONINEMERGINGMARKETS ANDDEVELOPINGECONOMIES14 Keymessages14 2.1Investmenttrends15 2.2Investmentrisks20 2.3Loweringtheimpactofrisksonthecostofcapital25 2.4Emergingapproachestofinancingrenewableenergyprojects34 2.5MakingfinancingmoreaffordablethroughpublicfinancingfromtheG2038 3.USINGENERGYPLANNINGTODRIVEINVESTMENT42 Keymessages42 3.1Long-termenergyplanningasafoundationforinvestment43 3.2Fivecasestudiesofeffectiveenergyplanning45 3.3Componentsofeffectiveenergyplanning48 3.4Theroleofinternationalcollaboration54 4.SUSTAINABLEFUELSFORTHEENERGYTRANSITION(WITHAFOCUSONBIOFUELS)56 Keymessages56 4.1Introduction57 4.2Sustainablefuelsandtheenergytransition59 4.3Strategicimplicationsofsustainablebiofuelsinregionalcontexts61 4.4Complementaryfunctionsofsustainablefuelsininternationalandtrans-regionaltrade63 4.5Harmonisingsustainabilitygovernancesystemsforenergy, carbonandenvironmentalmanagement64 4.6Integratedstrategiesforlarge-scaledeploymentofsustainablefuels67 5.SOCIALDIMENSIONSOFAJUSTANDINCLUSIVEENERGYTRANSITION71 Keymessages71 5.1Introduction73 5.2Evolvingnotionsofajustandinclusiveenergytransition73 5.3Identifyingsocialchallengesoftheenergytransition74 5.4Opportunitiesforasociallyinclusiveenergytransition:Policyconsiderations75 5.5Opportunitiesforasociallyinclusiveenergytransition:Financingconsiderations78 REFERENCES80 FIGURES Figure2.1Energytransition–relatedinvestmentsinadvancedeconomiesandEMDEs16 Figure2.2Proportionofenergytransitionrelatedinvestmentsin2023comparedtopopulation andGDP,bycountrygroupings17 Figure2.3Nominal,post-tax-weightedaveragecostofcapitalforutility-scalesolarPVprojects bycountry,2022-202421 Figure2.4Nominal,post-tax-weightedaveragecostofcapitalforonshorewindprojectsby country,2022and202422 Figure2.5BankabilityversusimpactpotentialofprojectssubmittedtoETAFfundingpartners24 Figure2.6Illustrativeimpactonthetotalcostofcapital(debtandequity)ofrisksandriskmitigationmeasures26 Figure2.7TheroleofpublicfinanceinachievingenergytransitionsinEMDEs39 Figure2.8Renewableenergyinvestmentsin2021-2022,bysourcesoffinancingandtypeof publicinvestor,inEMDEs(excludingChina)40 Figure3.1Thelinkbetweenenergyplanningandkeyinvestmentrisks43 Figure3.2Advantagesandchallengesforinsourcingandoutsourcingofenergyplanning scenariodevelopment52 Figure4.1Finalbioenergyconsumptionbysectorin2020,2030and2050,underthePlannedEnergyand1.5°Cscenarios59 Figure4.2GlobalrenewableenergyjobsunderthePESandthe1.5°CScenario,2021-205062 Figure4.3Globalbioenergytradeinmajormarketsin202063 Figure4.4ChangesinforestedareasinVietNam,1990-202069 Figure4.5Typesofmainproductsfrombiorefineriesacrosstheworldasin2022*70 Figure5.1Socialacceptanceofrenewableenergy78 TABLES Table2.1Energytransitioninvestmentpercapitabycountryandcountrygroup17 Table2.2Keyinvestmentrisksandmitigationtoolstoaddressthem27 Table2.3CommitmentsmadeatCOP28tosupportenergytransitionsinAfrica35 BOXES Box2.1BankabilityversusimpactpotentialandanalysisofETAFpipelineofprojects24 Box2.2RiskmitigationinstrumentsinAfricafundedbyG20members andotheradvancedeconomies33 Box2.3AUSD4.5billionfinanceinitiativetounlockAfrica'scleanenergypotential34 Box2.4LocalcurrencysovereigngreenbondsinIndia36 Box2.5COP28’sclimatefinanceoutcomes41 Box3.1Accesstoenergy:Brazil’sLightforAllProgram49 Box3.2Ghana:Bottom-upcollaborativeprocessandstakeholderengagement forpowerplanning50 Box3.3Chile:Institutionalisedlong-termenergyplanningforambitiousquantitative targetsandsubnationaldevelopmentplanning51 Box3.4Brazil’sindependentplanninginstitutiontoensuresustainableenergyplanning53 Box3.5Eswatini:Theroleofinternationalassistanceincapacitybuilding55 Box4.1Bioenergyintheframeworksofbio-basedandnature-basedeconomies57 Box4.2Biofueljobsandincomes62 Box4.3Brazil’sRenovaBioprogramme65 Box4.4Statusofe-fuelcertification66 Box4.5VietNam:Boostingbiofuelproductionthroughforestgrowth69 ACRONYMSANDABBREVIATIONS ADFDAbuDhabiFundforDevelopmentANEELNationalElectricEnergyAgencyBENNationalEnergyBalance BNDESTheBrazilianDevelopmentBankCCScarboncaptureandstorageCOP28The28thConferenceofthePartiesD2Ddata-to-deal DFIsdevelopmentfinanceinstitutions ECIEtihadCreditInsurance EMDEsemergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomies EPEEnergyResearchOffice ETAFEnergyTransitionAccelerator Financingplatform EUEuropeanUnion EU-REDEuropeanRenewableEnergy Directive FiTsfeed-intariffs G20TheGroupofTwenty GDPgrossdomesticproduct GHGgreenhousegas IFCInternationalFinanceCorporation INECPIntegratedNationalEnergyandClimatePlan IPPsindependentpowerproducers IRENAInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency JAjurisdictionalapproach LDCsleast-developedcountries LPTLightforAll LTESlong-termenergyscenarios LT-LEDSlong-termlow-emission developmentstrategies MDBsmultilateraldevelopmentbanks MIGAMultilateralInvestmentGuaranteeAgency MMEMinistryofMine