财富流动的生命周期动态2024

Thelife-cycledynamics ofwealthmobility Richard Audoly,Rory McGee,Sergio Ocampo,Gonzalo Paz-Pardo Disclaimer:Thispaper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank(ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. Abstract We use 25 years of tax records for the Norwegian population to study the mobilityof wealth over people’s lifetimes. We find considerable wealth mobility over the lifecycle. To understand the underlying mobility patterns, we group individuals withsimilar wealth rank histories using agglomerative hierarchical clustering, a toolfrom statistical learning. The mobility patterns we elicit provide evidence ofsegmented mobility. Over 60 percent of the population remains at the top or bottomof the wealth distribution throughout their lives. Mobility is driven by theremaining 40 percent, who move only within the middle of the distribution.Movements are tied to differential income trajectories and business activitiesacross groups. We show parental wealth is the key predictor of who is persistentlyrich or poor, while human capital is the main predictor of those who rise and fallthrough the middle of the distribution. Non-technical summary Individuals move up or down the wealth distribution during their lives. Thesemovements are related to the events and choices that people face, including theireducation decisions, their labour market income and the business activities theyengage in. Although an extensive literature has studied the distribution of wealth andwealth inequality, much less is known about how people transition across the wealthdistribution during their lives, i.e.,wealth mobility. This paper studies wealth mobility over the life cycle by using Norwegianadministrative data originating from the tax registry (1993-2017). This data isexceptional in an international context. Norway is one of the few countries in Europeto have a wealth tax, and as a result Norwegian tax authorities must collect informationabout the assets and liabilities of Norwegian individuals. The information isparticularly high quality because, unlike most survey datasets, it is not self reported,but rather obtained directly from third parties such as financial institutions. Ourdataset contains the universe of Norwegian individuals, their income and wealth, andalso other demographic information, such as their education, age, and marital status. We use this data to establish that mobility over the life cycle is substantial, but that itis rare that individuals make very large movements across the wealth distribution duringtheir lives. Instead, households that are born within the top of the wealth distribution(the richest 20%) and the bottom of the wealth distribution (the bottom 40%) tend tostay within that range, with some relatively small fluctuations. On the other hand, weidentify two groups of individuals that are part of the middle class and suffer reversalsof fortune during their lifetimes. One of them tends to rise over the wealth distributionas they age, reflecting rapid wealth accumulation, while the other tends to fall over thewealth distribution, reflecting stagnant or even falling wealth levels. We identify thesegroups using agglomerative hierarchical clustering, a tool from statistical learning. We study how these different groups differ in terms of their homeownership rates,portfolios, sources of income and inheritances. We find that the top and falling groupsare more likely to own businesses and to be self-employed, while the risers are morelikely to be employees with a starkly rising income profile. Individuals at the bottom ofthe distribution are different from the rest: their incomes are persistently lower, theyrarely become homeowners and do not own businesses. We relate these four distinct groups with their parental background, education andother characteristics which are determined at the start of their working lives. We findthat individuals born to very rich parents are almost 30 percentage points more likely tobe part of the group that is persistently at the top of their own generation’s distribution,compared to those born to the poorest parents. In contrast, those born to parents at thebottom of the distribution are more likely to be persistently poor throughout their lives. For individuals who experience a rise or fall through the distribution, education is astronger predictor of their evolution than parental wealth. Highly educated individualsare markedly more likely to rise through the wealth distribution as they age. By contrast,even after controlling for their parental background, those without post-secondaryeducation are between 5 and 10 percentage points more likely to be part of the fallinggroup than those with at least undergraduate degrees. Our results highlight that the position of an individual over the wealth distributionvaries substantially over his or her lifetime, but that certain groups, such a