Morning Brief

MarketResearch MorningBrief 4386834 [October10th,2024] MorningBrief ZHOUJinyu021‐38674924zhoujinyu011178@gtjas.comS0880516080007 Contents TopRecommendations ●BondMarket:SpecialReport ●Active(Passive)AssetAllocation:MonthlyReport ●ComputerSector:UpdateReport ●TourismSector:UpdateReport LatestReports ●NewChinaLife(601336):OW,TP@RMB61.40↑ ●NewVisionMicroelectronics(688593):OW,TP@RMB19.60 SectorRatingsoftheMonthMarketStrategyWeeklyViewpoint 本报告内容译自同日发布的简体中文报告《国泰君安晨报》，报告观点及内容如有任何不一致的地方，一律以该简体中文版报告为准。 TopRecommendations BondMarket:SpecialReport Thepolicystimulussincelate‐Septemberhassentequitymarketskyrocketing.Despiteofthegenerally‐believed“see‐saweffect”betweenstocksandbonds,thereisactuallycyclicalfeatureintheircorrelation.Intermsofcashflowanddiscountrate,cyclicalfeaturebetweenthebondmarketandstockmarketinChinahasbeenverystrong,andnowthetwomarketsmayhaveenteredthezoneofsame‐directionmovement.Besidescashflowanddiscountrate,riskevasionisanothervariable. Thebondmarketandstockmarketmaymoveinthesamedirectionlater.Withreferencetotheirperformancesin2015,stockmarketmaybestrongerthanbondmarket,buttheshort‐termstabilityofbondmarketmaybebetter.Theprofit‐takingandbond‐into‐stockswitchinbondmarketearlierprobablytookplaceamongtheassetmanagementofinsurancecompaniesratherthanbanks.Inaddition,thestock‐bondcorrelationcoefficientisrelativelyhighforlong‐termbonds.Long‐termbondsmayrunintobigfluctuationsfollowingtheriseofequitymarket,whileshort‐termbondsandcreditbondsaremoreabletoreapstablereturns. Active(Passive)AssetAllocation:MonthlyReport PerformancesofMajorAssets:ThisSeptember(September1st–30th,2024),Chinaequitymarketsoared.CSI1000,CSI300,HSI,CSIConvertibleBond,NHCL,SHFEGoldandChinaBond‐TreasuryBondTotalWealth(TotalValue)rose23.32%,20.97%,16.14%,5.78%,4.6%,3.65%and0.21%respectively,whileChinaBond‐EnterpriseBondTotalWealth(TotalValue)fell0.14%.Intermsofassetcorrelation,thecorrelationofCSI300withChinaBond‐TreasuryBondTotalWealth(TotalValue)inthelatestyearwas‐38.57%;thatofChinaBond‐TreasuryBondTotalWealth(TotalValue)withNHCLwas42.96%;thatofCSI300andNHCLwas‐21.33%. PerformancesofOurModels(YTDreturn;Septembermonthlyreturn;maxdrawdown;annualizedvolatility):DomesticAssetBLModel1(+6.44;+1.07%;0.78%; 1.51%);DomesticAssetBLModel2(+5.38%;+0.49%;0.65%;1.31%);DomesticAsset RiskParityModel(+5.66%;+1.23%;0.37%;1.05%);Macro‐factorAssetAllocation Model(+4.92%;+1.32%;0.47%;1.19%). ComputerSector:UpdateReport Inabigbullstockmarket,thenewestthingsusuallyenjoythebiggestpotential.Thistime,thenewestthingswillbefoundinautopilotanddataelementsectors,wethink.Offeaturedcompanies,werecommendTongxingbao(301339),TransInfo(002373),Epoint(688232)andeGOVA(300075).OtherbeneficiariesincludeKale(301070),Genvict(002869),Vanjee(300552),E‐Hualu(300212),Taiji(002368)andChinaReformHealth(000503). TourismSector:UpdateReport Werecommendthefollowingsixtypesofsub‐sectors(companies),ofwhich,thepro‐cyclicalsub‐sectorswhichenjoypolicysupportwilltaketheleadofmarketrise. (1)Thepro‐cyclicalsub‐sectorsunderpolicysupport:catering,hotelandduty‐freeshoppingservices; (2)TheinternetgiantsengaginginverticalO2Obusiness:TuhuCar(9690.HK); (3)Thelow‐valuationeducationcompanieswithturnaroundofbusinessperformance:Beststudy(3978.HK),ScholarEducation(1769.HK),Fenbi(2469.HK)andActionEducation(605098); (4)Fair‐priceoverseasretailers:Miniso(9896.HK),CommoditiesCity(600415),HuakaiYibai(300592)andAnkerInnovations(300866); (5)Tourismcompaniesofrisingbusinessclimate:TongchengTravel(0780.HK),Trip.com(9961.HK),SanteCableway(002159),JiuhuashanTourism(603199)andChangbaiMountainTourism(603099); (6)GoldandjewelryretailerswhichenjoytheriseofChinesebrands:CaishikouDepartmentStore(605599),LaoFengXiang(600612),ChowTaiSeng(002867),ChowTaiFook(1929.HK),CHJ(002345)andChinaGold(600916). LatestReports NewChinaLife(601336):OW,TP@RMB61.40↑ [Rating:OW(Prv:OW);TP:RMB61.40(Prv:RMB45.46);MP:RMB49.00;Mkt‐Cap:RMB152858mn] TheCompanyforecasted2024Q1~Q3netprofitofRMB18.607bn~20.515bn(+95%~115%yoy).Ofwhich,its2024Q3netprofitisestimatedatRMB7.524bn~9.432bn(c.f.RMB(‐0.436bn)in2023Q3),betterthanmarketexpectationthankstothecontributionfrominvestmentreturn.Takingintoaccountthecontributionfromtheinvestmentreturnupontheriseofcapitalmarketatpresent,weraiseourforecastsoftheCompany’s2024‐2026EPStoRMB9.00(from4.80,+87.4%),9.54(from5.65,+68.8%)and10.28(from6.21,+65.6%).Wesuggest2024P/EVof0.70xandraisethecorrespondingtargetpricetoRMB61.40.“Overweight”ratingmaintained. NewVisionMicroelectronics(688593):OW,TP@RMB19.60 [Rating:OW(Prv:N/A);TP:RMB19.60(Prv:N/A);MP:RMB18.14;Mkt‐Cap:RMB8336mn] TheCompanyisspecializedindisplaydrivesolutionsandtakesbenefitfromtheimportsubstitutionofthesupplychain.WeforecasttheCompany’s2024‐2026EPSofRMB0.09,0.34and0.46.TheCompanyisoneofthefewChinaMainlandcompaniescapableofprovidingbothintegrateddriveandseparateddrivesolutions.BasedonthelowerofPSandPEvaluations,wesuggesttargetpriceofRMB19.60.“Overweight”rating. SectorRatingsoftheMonth RatingSector OW BuildingMaterials,ComprehensiveFinance,Insurance,Commercia