Morning Brief
MarketResearch MorningBrief [September30th,2024] MorningBrief ZHOUJinyu021‐38674924zhoujinyu011178@gtjas.comS0880516080007 Contents TopRecommendations ●MacroResearch:UpdateReport ●A‐ShareStrategyWeekly:MarketExpectationsGoingUp ●BondMarket:SpecialReport ●TanguCarbonFiber(836077):OW,TP@RMB9.88↓ LatestReports ●ChinaMerchantsBank(600036):OW,TP@RMB21.09 ●YLPHigh‐TechAgriculture(000998):OW,TP@RMB15.90↓ ●ShuanghuanDriveline(002472):OW,TP@RMB33.04 ●ChinaChemicalEngineering(601117):OW,TP@RMB10.73 SectorRatingsoftheMonthMarketStrategyWeeklyViewpoint 本报告内容译自同日发布的简体中文报告《国泰君安晨报》，报告观点及内容如有任何不一致的地方，一律以该简体中文版报告为准。 TopRecommendations MacroResearch:UpdateReport OnSeptember26th,theCPCPolitburoheldameetingtoanalyzethecurrenteconomicsituationandplanthenexteconomicwork.AslearnedfromthepreviousPolitburo’smeetings,itisararephenomenonforthePolitburotodiscusseconomicissuesinSeptember,whichhasdemonstratedthecentralgovernment’semphasisonthecurrenteconomicproblemsanditsactiveresponse. Generallyspeaking,thehighlightsofthePolitburo’smeetingthistimeincludeclearergoals,greaterpolicyintensity,andmoreattentiontothesubjectiveinitiativeofmicro‐entities.Itisexpectedthatthejointforceofanewroundofeconomy‐stabilizingpolicieswillsoonbelaunched,whichcanfurtherboostthemarketconfidence. A‐ShareStrategyWeekly:MarketExpectationsGoingUp Upwardadjustmentofmarketexpectationsfavorsheavy‐weightstocksandgrowthstocks.Thisweek,Chinastockmarketwitnessedanepicrebound,withShanghaiCompositeup12.81%andChiNextup22.71%.AswepointedoutinourweeklyreportdatedonSeptember24th,stockpricereflectsinvestors’expectationsofthefuture.Thedrasticchangesoffinancialpoliciesandtheauthority’sattitudetowardcapitalmarketarethekeytotheupwardadjustmentofmarketexpectations.Ratherthantheupwardadjustmentofeconomicexpectations,theriseofA‐sharemarketthisweekwasbecauseofthefundinflowdrivenbythedeclineofrisk‐freeinterestrate,thechangeofriskexpectationsandtheriseofriskappetite.Optimisticinvestorssentstockpriceshigh,andsuchoptimismaboutthegovernmentpolicieswillcontinuetopushupthestockmarket.WithreferencetotheriseofA‐sharemarketin2019uponthechangeofgovernmentpolicies,webelieveShanghaiCompositeisabletocontinuetogoup.Aftertheriseofheavy‐weightstocks,growthstockswillreapexcessreturn. Descendingrisk‐freeinterestrateandrisingriskappetitearethetwomaindrivers.Inourstrategicframeworkanalysisandroadshows,wehavesaidtimeandagainthattheChinaT‐bondinterestrateisnottherisk‐freeinterestrateofChinastockmarket.Otherwise,thepastlowstockindicestogetherwithdescendinginterestratescannotfindanexplanation.Therisk‐freeinterestrateofChinastockmarketistheopportunitycostofstockholding.IntimeofhighinterestrateofUSdollar,highrealinterestrateandmortgagerateinChinaandsloweradjustmentofdomesticinterestratepolicythanthedeclineofgrossdemand,theopportunitycostofstockholdinggoesupinsteadofgoingdown.Therefore,afterUSenteredtheinterestratecutcycle(morethan200bpinterestratecutbytheyear2025E,aspredictedbyourlatticediagram),theCPCPolitburothisSeptemberorderedto“carryoutaggressiveinterestratecut”,whichwasofgreatimportancetothedeclineofrisk‐freeinterestrateandtheinflowofnewfundsinChinastockmarket.Meanwhile,thePBoC’sinnovativeswapfacilitiesandstockbuybackandre‐lendinginstrumentshavealsoenabledstocksasthequalifiedcollateralsforcreditexpansion.However,asforthestockmarket,thePolitburo’s“abridged”policyobjectives,oritsrefocusingoneconomic development,inotherwords,arethekeyvariablethathaveboostedmarketsentimentsandmarketexpectationsespeciallytheriskappetite. Asforsectorselection,wepreferbluechipsfirstandgrowthsectorslater,andthemarketoutlookwillbecomeclearneartheendof2024.Differentfromthepast,duetothecompetitionsamongBigPowersandoutoftheneedfordomesticeconomictransformation,theeconomicpolicies,fiscalregulationsandfinancialoversightwilllaymoreemphasison“long‐termmechanism”thistime.Therefore,weanticipateblue‐chipstockswilltaketheleadofthisroundofmarketriseatfirst,followedbygrowthsectors.Nearthisyearend,theactualimplementationofgovernmentpolicieswilldecidethecontinuityofthebullishmarket.OnSeptember24th,ourkeyrecommendationswerethelow‐valuationblue‐chipsstocks.Nowweadvisetofocusonthesectorssensitivetothedeclineofrisk‐freeinterestrateandtheriseofriskappetite.Indetail,werecommend(1)(risingmarketturnover;M&A)non‐bankfinance;(2)(risingriskappetite)computerandmedia;(3)(low‐valuationgrowthstocksofstable2025Ebusinessoutlook)electronic,automobile,telecom,powerequipment(battery),pharmaceuticalandsomeconsumersub‐sectors. Asforinvestmentthemes,werecommend(1)“FinancialTechnology”:securitiesITandfinancialITapplicationinnovation;(2)“DiscretionaryConsumption”:medicalservicesandmedicalcosmetics;(3)“RealtyServices”:homefurniture,andpropertyagencyandservices;(4)“M&AofState‐ownedInterests”:energyresourcesandpublicservices. Risks:unsatisfactoryeffectsofpolicies;geopoliticalconflicts;bigger‐than‐expecteddecreaseofdomesticdemand. BondMarket:SpecialReport Thebondmarketpricingearlierwassubjecttotheimbalancebetweenthemarketsupplyanddemand,accompaniedwithincrementallong‐sid
