Morning Brief

MarketResearch MorningBrief [September23rd,2024] MorningBrief ZHOUJinyu021‐38674924zhoujinyu011178@gtjas.comS0880516080007 Contents TopRecommendations ●MacroResearch:UpdateReport ●A‐ShareStrategyWeekly:StandByForNow ●OverseasMarketStrategy:HongKongStocks ●CoalSector:UpdateReport ●QuantitativeResearch:UpdateReport LatestReports ●BMCMedical(301367):OW,TP@RMB78.54 ●MegmeetElectrical(002851):OW,TP@RMB30.50↓ ●ChachaFood(002557):OW,TP@RMB32.59 ●KweichowMoutai(600519):OW,TP@RMB2,240.12 ●King’sLuckBrewery(603369):OW,TP@RMB78.26 ●GuangdongInvestment(0270.HK):OW SectorRatingsoftheMonthMarketStrategyWeeklyViewpoint 本报告内容译自同日发布的简体中文报告《国泰君安晨报》，报告观点及内容如有任何不一致的地方，一律以该简体中文版报告为准。 TopRecommendations MacroResearch:UpdateReport AttheendofAugust,China’sforexreservesincreasedbyUSD31.843bnmomtoUSD3.288.215bn,mainlybecauseofthevalueappreciationdrivenbytheexchangegainsandUSDinterestcut.ButtheconsensusexpectationforRMBappreciationisyettocomeintobeing,andPBoCremainsfirmonitspoliciestostabilizeRMBexchangerate. Intheshortterm,thecongestionofgoldtradinghasincreasedsignificantly,butthemainrisingwaveundertheframeworkofRMBexchangeratepricinghasnotyetended.WhilePBoCcontinuedtosuspendgoldpurchase,othercentralbanksdidnot.TheglobalnetgoldpurchasebycentralbankshasrisensignificantlyinJulycomparedwithJune,withPoland,UzbekistanandIndiaasthetopthreepurchasers,whichreflectedgeopoliticalconcernsandde‐dollarization.DuringthesystematicchangeofgoldpricingparadigmwithRMBexchangerateastheanchor,wejudgethatthemainrisingwaveofgoldhasnotyetended,andthecatalystistherisingflexibilityofexchangeratearoundthebilateralfluctuationsofthecentralparityprice. A‐ShareStrategyWeekly:StandByForNow Inabsenceofthemomentumforabigriseofmarketindices,wepreferdefensivetactics.InourweeklyreportdatedonSeptember1st,weanticipatethegrowthsectorstoseesomerecoveryduringthemarketfluctuationsuponlargerdisputesaboutthepoliciesandthelaunchingofA500ETF.SofarthisSeptember,ChiNextandscience‐techsectorhaveoutperformedthemarketaverageonthewhole.However,itshouldbewarnedthatthecontinuedweakgrossdemandandthenegativerevenuegrowthandcapitalexpendituregrowthofAllA‐sharesin2024H1haveresultedinthedownwardadjustmentsofbothmarketexpectationsandstockmarket.InOctober2024,theUSpresidentialelection,thepolicyexpectationsandthe2024Q3quarterlyreportswillbethethreeimportantindictors.Unlesstheameliorationofgeopoliticalriskandpolicyexpectationsbufferstheimpactsof2024Q3reports,thedownwardadjustmentofmarketexpectationswillremainapressureonthestockmarket.Butthegoodthingistherecentdevaluationofheavy‐weightA‐sharesupontheFedReserve’sinterestratecut,whichpavedthewayforthereboundsofA‐sharemarketinfuture.Weadvisetoremainpatientandstandbyforthetimebeing,untilaftertheauthoritieslaunchednewmeasuresthatarestrongenoughtodriveupthestockmarket,orthevaluationorthemarketissafeenough(ShanghaiCompositeat15‐20%quantile). Intimeofworldwidemonetaryeasing,werecommendthe“seeable”qualityChineseassets.Theprecautionary50bpinterestratecutoftheFedReservemarkedtheendingoftheworldwidemonetarytightening.However,theFedReserve’sinterestratecutsandChina’sfollow‐upinterestratecutswerenotalwaysinthesamepaceinhistory.Whenthedomesticeconomicpressurewassmall,Chinadidfollow‐upinterestratecutsoneyearafter(e.g.in2001and2007).Whenthedomesticeconomicpressurewasbig,thefollow‐upinterestratecutstookplaceassoonasonemonthafter(e.g.in2019and2020).Therearealsonewsituationsat present,includingthehigherofpivotalUSinterestrate(estimatedat2.9%in2026)andtheinterestratemarginlossofdomesticbanksandinsurancecompanies.WethinktheendingofmonetarytighteningstillfavorsChineseassets.Theinvestorsarenowlessabletopredictthefutureduetothecurrentcomplicatedgeopolitical,economicandsocialenvironments.IntermsofDCFvaluationmethod,althoughthedeclineofinterestrateisunabletolowertheriskpremiumoflow‐profitassets,itisgoodnewstothe“low‐valuationandstable‐outlook”value‐growthassets,ascanbeobservedfromtherecentreboundoftheA‐shareexportindustrialchaincompaniesandHongKongstocks. Asforsectorselection,wefocusonthegrowthpotentialandprofitquality.Tobespecific,werecommend(1)science‐techmanufacturing:(stableterminaldemand;importsubstitution;lowvaluation)automobile,electronic,telecom,batterysectors,andHongKonginternetstocks;(2)(stablecashflow)electricpower&publicutilities,telecomoperator,expressway&port,andcoalsectors;(3)(interestrate‐sensitivebusinesses)homeapplianceandmachinerysectors. Asforinvestmentthemes,werecommend(1)“State‐ownedAssetRestructuring”:energyresourcesandpublicservices;(2)“Indigenous&Controllable”:photo‐etchingandotherkeytechnologies,andtheimportsubstitutionofequipmentandmaterials; (3)“EconomicStabilization”:railway,explosivesforciviluse,powergridandshipbuilding;(4)“ReplacementPurchase”:energyandautomobileindustries,inparticular,high‐endequipmentandpassengervehicles. Risks:longer‐than‐expectedoverseaseconomicrecession;globalgeopoliticaluncertainties. OverseasMarketStrategy:HongKongStocks Afterthefirst50bpinterestratecutoftheFedReserve,theHongKongMonetaryAuthorityfollowedbya50bpinter