Morning Brief
MarketResearch MorningBrief [September18th,2024] MorningBrief ZHOUJinyu021‐38674924zhoujinyu011178@gtjas.comS0880516080007 Contents LatestReports ●MacroResearch:UpdateReport ●LuxsharePrecision(002475):OW,TP@RMB61.35 ●ARM(ARM.O):OW,TP@USD154.00 ●HeidengTech(838227):OW,TP@RMB21.99↓ ●Rockchip(603893):OW,TP@RMB91.42 ●Maxscend(300782):OW,TP@RMB75.90↓ ●YunnanEnergyInvestment(002053):OW,TP@RMB16.32 ●KeymedBiosciences(2162.HK):OW ●EaspringMaterial(300073):OW,TP@RMB39.43↓ SectorRatingsoftheMonthMarketStrategyWeeklyViewpoint 本报告内容译自同日发布的简体中文报告《国泰君安晨报》，报告观点及内容如有任何不一致的地方，一律以该简体中文版报告为准。 LatestReports MacroResearch:UpdateReport AslearnedfromtheeconomicdatathisAugust,themultipliereffectoftheTreasurybondsisyettoexpand. First,asfortheconsumption,ifthesubsidiestoautoandhomeappliancespurchasedotakeeffect,itmayboostthesocialretailsalesby3percentagepointsin2024H2.IftheautosalesremainstableafterthisAugustandthesubsidiesonlytakeeffectonhomeappliancessales(whicharemuchsmallinsizecomparedtoautosales),itmayspeedupthesocialretailsalesby0.3percentagepointsin2024H2. Second,asfortheinvestment,ifthesituationofindustrialprofitandexpectationthisJulyandAugustcontinues,thefinancingofTreasurybondisexpectedtoboosttheequipmentpurchasebynomorethan3%andfixedassetinvestmentbylessthan1%in2024H2. Astheimpactoftheextremeclimatediminishes,theissuanceofspecialgovernmentbondsspeedsupandthepromotionofreplacementpurchasecontinuestotakeeffect,China’s2024GDPtargetofan“around5%growth”maybeachievedattheloweredgeoftherangedesired. LuxsharePrecision(002475):OW,TP@RMB61.35 [Rating:OW(Prv:OW);TP:RMB61.35(Prv:RMB61.35);MP:RMB37.15;Mkt‐Cap:RMB267603mn] WemaintainourforecastsoftheCompany’s2024‐2026EPSofRMB1.91,2.40and 2.96.Withreferencetotheaveragevaluationofcomparablecompanies(2025PEof17.4x)andalsotakingintoaccounttheCompany’sleadingpositioninindustry,wemaintaintargetpriceofRMB61.35(2025PEof25.56x)and“Overweight”rating. ARM(ARM.O):OW,TP@USD154.00 Takingadvantageoftheriseofdownstreamdemandandroyaltyprice,theCompanyisabletosustainlong‐termgrowth.WeforecasttheCompany’sFY2025E‐2027ErevenueofUSD3.980bn,4.860bnand6.050bn,andnon‐GAAPnetprofitofUSD1.529bn,1.807bnand2.380bn.BasedonDCFvaluationmethod,wesuggestFY2025marketvalueofUSD162.953bnandcorrespondingtargetpriceofUSD154.“Overweight”rating. HeidengTech(838227):OW,TP@RMB21.99↓ [Rating:OW(Prv:OW);TP:RMB21.99(Prv:N/A);MP:RMB18.82;Mkt‐Cap:RMB733mn] InviewofthehugeexpendituresoftheCompanyonitsnewbusinessofe‐commercesourcing,welowerourforecastsoftheCompany’s2024‐2026EPSfromRMB1.45,1.63and1.87toRMB1.15,1.42and1.66.Withreferencetothevaluationsofcomparablecompanies,wesuggest2025PSof4.06xandlowerthecorrespondingtargetpricetoRMB21.99.“Overweight”ratingmaintained. Rockchip(603893):OW,TP@RMB91.42 [Rating:OW(Prv:OW);TP:RMB91.42(Prv:RMB91.42);MP:RMB49.38;Mkt‐Cap:RMB20656mn] TheCompanyisaleadingAIoTchipsupplier.WemaintainourforecastsoftheCompany’s2024‐2026EPSofRMB1.06,1.62and2.16.Theaverage2024PEofcomparableSoCcompaniesis55x,andtheCompanydeservessomepremiuminstockvaluationforbeingoneofthefew8nmchipsuppliersinChina.Wesuggest2024PEof86xandmaintaintargetpriceofRMB91.42.“Overweight”ratingmaintained. Maxscend(300782):OW,TP@RMB75.90↓ [Rating:OW(Prv:OW);TP:RMB75.90(Prv:RMB116.19);MP:RMB59.51;Mkt‐Cap:RMB31810mn] TheCompany’s2024H1resultswerelowerthanexpectation,anditsgrossmarginisexpectedtogodownlaterduetothesharpriseofdepreciationcostofitsproductionlines.Accordingly,welowerourforecastsoftheCompany’s2024‐2026EPSfromRMB2.24,2.91and3.47toRMB1.38,1.97and2.50.Theaverage2024PEofcomparablesemiconductordesigncompaniesis31.5x.TakingintoaccountthegrowthpotentialoftheCompany’sL‐PamidandotherRFmodules,wesuggest2024PEof55xandlowerthecorrespondingtargetpricetoRMB75.9.“Overweight”ratingmaintained. YunnanEnergyInvestment(002053):OW,TP@RMB16.32 [Rating:OW(Prv:OW);TP:RMB16.32(Prv:RMB16.32);MP:RMB9.93;Mkt‐Cap:RMB9143mn] TheearningsoftheCompanywindpowerassetsmayoutrunmarketexpectation,anditsnaturalresourcesmayenjoyrevaluationgainsinfuture.WemaintainourforecastsoftheCompany’s2024‐2026EPSofRMB1.09,1.26and1.58.WemaintaintargetpriceofRMB16.32and“Overweight”rating. KeymedBiosciences(2162.HK):OW [Rating:OW(Prv:OW);TP:N/A(Prv:N/A);MP:HKD39.75;Mkt‐Cap:HKD11119mn] OnSeptember12,CDEapprovedtheCompany’sStapokibart(CM310)(forthetreatmentofmoderateandsevereADofadults)formarketing.AsthecommercializationofCM310isearlierthanexpectation,weraiseourforecastoftheCompany’s2024revenuefromRMB156mntoRMB197mn.WemaintainourforecastsoftheCompany’s2025‐2026revenueofRMB526mnand1,441mn,andmaintain“Overweight”rating. EaspringMaterial(300073):OW,TP@RMB39.43↓ [Rating:OW(Prv:OW);TP:RMB39.43(Prv:RMB43.10);MP:RMB30.75;Mkt‐Cap:RMB15575mn] Becauseoftheslowdownofindustrialgrowthandtheriseofmarketcompetitions,welowerourforecastsoftheCompany’s2024‐2026EPStoRMB1.24(‐1.90),1.41(‐2.23)and1.60.Withreferencetothevaluationsofcomparablecompanies,wesuggest2024PBof1.47xandlowerthecorrespondingtargetpricetoRMB39.43.“Overweight”ratingmaintained. SectorRatingsoftheMonth RatingSector OW BuildingMaterials,Compre
