Morning Brief

MarketResearch MorningBrief [July26th,2024] MorningBrief ZHOUJinyu021‐38674924zhoujinyu011178@gtjas.comS0880516080007 Contents TopRecommendations ●Google(GOOGL.US):OW,TP@USD208.00↑ ●DeyeTech(605117):OW,TP@RMB94.00↑ ●BozhonPrecision(688097):OW,TP@RMB27.50 ●ChemicalFertilizerSector:UpdateReport LatestReports ●Tesla(TSLA.O):OW,TP@USD285.00 ●IMHuanengThermalPower(600863):OW,TP@RMB5.16 SectorRatingsoftheMonthMarketStrategyWeeklyViewpoint 本报告内容译自同日发布的简体中文报告《国泰君安晨报》，报告观点及内容如有任何不一致的地方，一律以该简体中文版报告为准。 TopRecommendations Google(GOOGL.US):OW,TP@USD208.00↑ WeareoptimisticabouttheCompany’sleadingpositioninartificialintelligence.WeadjustourforecastsoftheCompany’sFY2024E‐2026ErevenuetoUSD349.5bn,383.0bnand414.8bn(from356.7bn,393.0bnand427.9bn),andnetprofittoUSD94.6bn,107.3bnand115.8bn(from86.6bn,98.6bnand106.7bn).Wesuggest2025PEof24xandcorrespondingmarketvalueofUSD2.58trn,andraisethetargetpricetoUSD208.“Overweight”ratingmaintained. DeyeTech(605117):OW,TP@RMB94.00↑ [Rating:OW(Prv:OW);TP:RMB94.00(Prv:RMB65.75);MP:RMB99.85;Mkt‐Cap:RMB63715mn] Takingintoboththecontinuedde‐stockinginEuropeandSouthAfricaandtheameliorationofsomemarketsinAsia,AfricaandLatinAmerica,weadjustourforecastsoftheCompany’s2024‐2026EPStoRMB4.27(‐0.21),5.47(‐0.74)and7.01.Withreferencetothevaluationsofcomparablecompanies,wesuggest2024PEof22xandraisethecorrespondingtargetpricetoRMB94(+28.25).“Overweight”ratingmaintained. BozhonPrecision(688097):OW,TP@RMB27.50 [Rating:OW(Prv:N/A);TP:RMB27.50(Prv:N/A);MP:RMB19.01;Mkt‐Cap:RMB8491mn] TheCompanytakesintheleadingin3Cassemblyequipmentandisexpandingintoalternativeenergyandsemiconductorindustries.WeforecasttheCompany’s2024‐2026EPSofRMB1.10,1.46and1.75.WithreferencetothevaluationsofcomparablecompaniesandalsotakingintoaccounttheCompany’sbusinessexpansion,wesuggest2024PEof25xandcorrespondingtargetpriceofRMB27.5.“Overweight”rating. ChemicalFertilizerSector:UpdateReport Atpresent,thenationalpotassiumchlorideinventorylevelisonthedecline.Bigorderswillnotonlyhelptoboostthesalesofpotassiumfertilizerbutalsosupportitsprices.In2024Q3~4,thedemandfromautumnfertilizationandwinterstoragewillcontinuetoimprovethedomesticmarketcondition.Offeaturedcompanies,werecommendtheleadinggrowingpotassiumfertilizerproducerAsia‐PotashIntl(000893). LatestReports Tesla(TSLA.O):OW,TP@USD285.00 Althoughtheshort‐termgrowthmarginofautomobilebusinessisnotoptimistic,thelong‐termgrowthpotentialofenergystorageandrobotbusinessisgoodthankstotheadvanceofFSDtechnologyandtherealizationofRobotaxi,inadditiontothestableprogressofnewautomodeldevelopment.Weslightlyadjustourforecastsofthe Company’sFY2024E‐2026ErevenuetoUSD103.0bn,121.3bnand137.4bn(from102.6bn,125.1bnand152.6bn),andnon‐GAAPnetprofittoUSD9.0bn,13.8bnand17.2bn(from10.0bn,16.1bnand21.6bn).WesuggesttargetpriceofUSD285andmaintain“Overweight”rating. IMHuanengThermalPower(600863):OW,TP@RMB5.16 [Rating:OW(Prv:OW);TP:RMB5.16(Prv:RMB5.16);MP:RMB4.42;Mkt‐Cap:RMB28849mn] TheCompanyhasclearadvantageincoal‐powerintegrationandsoundassetquality.WemaintainourforecastsoftheCompany’s2024‐2026EPSofRMB0.36, 0.43and0.46.WemaintaintargetpriceofRMB5.16and“Overweight”rating. SectorRatingsoftheMonth RatingSector OW BuildingMaterials,ComprehensiveFinance,Insurance,CommercialBanking,Coal,Food&Drink, Pharmaceutical,RealEstate,MachineryManufacturing,Transportation,ConstructionEngineering,NonferrousMetals HouseholdAppliances,TransportationEquipment,MassMedia&Cultural,Agriculture,Textile& NT UWInformationTechnology,InformationScience Garments,Retailing,PowerEquipment,SocialServices,PublicUtilities,Iron&Steel Note:TheratingsabovearemadebyGTJAStrategyTeam,whichmaynotalwaysbeinlinewiththeopinionsofGTJAindustryanalystsduetodifferentemphasesandtimerangeswhentheseratingsaremade. MarketStrategyWeeklyViewpoint(LastUpdate:July21st,2024)A‐ShareStrategyWeekly:BlueChipsOrNot Sidewaycorrectionsmaycontinueforsometime.AswehadanticipatedinearlyJuly,STAR500andCSI300reboundedby8.5%and4.5%fromthebottom.However,therewasnobigincreaseofmarketturnover,andlarge‐capblue‐shipstocksfaroutperformedsmall‐andmedium‐capones,reflectingthemarketconcernoverslowerqoqGDPgrowth,geopoliticalconflictsandregulatorypressure.Anyway,aspessimisticinvestorsexitedandnegativefactorswerepricedin,ShanghaiCompositemaystayinsidewaycorrections,andcontrarianinvestmentmaybeadvisableincaseofmarketsetbacks. Thekeypointofinvestmentstylesliesin“bluechipsornot”,ratherthan“growthstocksorvaluestocks”.In2024H1,bothvaluestocksofstablecashflowandgrowthstocksofupwardbusinessclimatebothrealizedgoodreturns.Butwithinvaluestocksandgrowthstocks,thereturnsoflarge‐capblue‐chiponesweremuchbetterthannon‐blue‐chipones.Intimeofcomplicatedgeopolitical,economicandsocialproblemsandundertougherregulatorypressure,riskappetitestayslowandmarketinterestisfocusingonthecompanieswithbetterproducts,businessordersandbusinessresultsaswellasreasonablestockvaluation,ratheronthecompaniesforstory‐tellingthematicspeculations.Suchpreferencehasbeenstrengthenedbythe“NineNewMeasuresofStateCouncilonCapitalMarket”(forbetter‐q