锌半年报：静水流深 方兴未艾

静水流深 方兴未艾 核心观点及策略 要点要点宏观面看，欧美央行陆续开启降息周期，全球制造业景气扩张将延续，补库周期见底回升。国内经济恢复节奏偏慢，财政政策有望加码，货币政策存不确定性，将增加市场的博弈。 投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号 要点下半年全球锌矿供应边际改善但增量较有限，且仍存扰动及产量延后释放的风险，加工费呈现企稳筑底。冶炼厂依旧面临加工费低迷及亏损严重的双重压力，叠加新增产能释放的不确定性，精炼锌供应同比将出现较大降幅。 李婷021-68555105li.t@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾021-68555105huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692 需求方面，欧美高利率回落，海外需求或边际改善。国内终端消费增量有限，但基于二季度较低基数，环比改善空间较乐观，有望带动加速去库。其中，资金加速投放背景下，基建实物量将在三季度后半段陆续体现并延续至四季度，耐用品汽车、家电板块及镀锌出口保有韧性，风光新兴消费维持小幅增长，地产延续筑底。 高慧021-68555105gao.h@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785 整体来看，锌矿供应紧张为年内锌价提供较强的支撑，同时需求接力预期下，锌价有望打开上方空间。预计下半年沪锌主力运行区间在22500-27000元/吨。 王工建021-68555105wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F3084165投资咨询号：Z0016301 操作策略上，单边回调做多为主；鉴于下半年锌矿进口补充诉求依旧强烈，跨市维持反套思路；国内库存加速去库预期下，跨月套利尝试买进抛远布局。 风险因素：海外政治风险，锌矿超产，需求超预期回落 目录 一、锌市场行情回顾.........................................................5二、宏观面.................................................................62.1美国方面...................................................................................................................................62.2欧元区方面...............................................................................................................................62.3国内方面..................................................................................................................................7三、锌基本面分析...........................................................83.1锌矿供应情况...........................................................................................................................83.1.1全球锌矿新增项目不及预期，锌矿增量下修...................................................................83.1.2下半年加工费有望企稳筑底...........................................................................................113.2精炼锌供应情况.....................................................................................................................123.2.1海外炼厂减复产并存，供应端修复.................................................................................123.2.2下半年冶炼厂生产干扰率依旧较高，进口锌延续补充...............................................133.3精炼锌需求情况.....................................................................................................................143.3.1海外需求或边际改善.........................................................................................................143.3.2上半年国内初端消费较弱，初端产品出口喜忧参半.....................................................163.3.3政策加码，终端需求预期边际好转.................................................................................173.4全球显性库存维持高位..................................................20四、总结与后市展望........................................................21 图表目录 图表1沪锌主连及LME三月期锌走势.................................................................................5图表2美国通胀情况................................................................................................................7图表3美国利率水平................................................................................................................7图表4美国就业市场.................................................................................................................7图表5欧美PMI数据...............................................................................................................7图表6欧元区通胀情况............................................................................................................8图表7欧元区利率水平............................................................................................................8图表8国内PMI数据................................................................................................................8图表9国内GDP数据..............................................................................................................8图表10全球锌矿月度产量情况...............................................................................................9图表11国内锌矿月度产量情况...............................................................................................9图表12 2024年海外矿山扰动事件汇总（万吨）................................................................10图表13 2024年海外锌矿产量增减情况（万吨）................................................................10图表14 2024年国内锌矿产量增减情况（万吨）................................................................11图表15内外矿加工费降至极低水平....................................................................................12图表16锌矿进口盈亏............................................................................................................12图表17锌矿进口情况............................................................................................................12图表18冶炼厂原料库存天数................................................................................................12图表19 2024年初以来海外炼厂事件汇总（万吨）............................................................13图表20全球精炼锌月度产量情况........................................................................................13图表21国内精炼锌月度产量................................................................................................14图表22冶炼厂生产利润...........................