阿根廷国家经济备忘录：新的增长前景改善财政政策、开放市场和人力资本投资2024

A nw rowthhorion Improve fiscal policy,open markets, and investin human capitalPublic Disclosure Authorized © 2024 The World Bank Group1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank Group with external contributions. “The World Bank Group” refers tothe legally separate organizations of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), the InternationalDevelopment Association (IDA), the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral Investment GuaranteeAgency (MIGA). The World Bank Group does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the content included in this work,or the conclusions or judgments described herein, and accepts no responsibility or liability for any omissions or errors(including, without limitation, typographical errors and technical errors) in the content whatsoever or for reliance thereon.The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgmenton the part of the World Bank Group concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance ofsuch boundaries. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect theviews of the organizations of the World Bank Group, their respective Boards of Executive Directors, and the governmentsthey represent. The contents of this work are intended for general informational purposes only and are not intended to constitute legal,securities, or investment advice, an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, or a solicitation of any type.Some of the organizations of the World Bank Group or their affiliates may have an investment in, provide other advice orservices to, or otherwise have a financial interest in, certain of the companies and parties named herein. Nothing hereinshall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of any ofthe organizations of The World Bank Group, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and PermissionsThe material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank Group encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution tothis work is given and all further permissions that may be required for such use (as noted herein) are acquired. The WorldBank Group does not warrant that the content contained in this work will not infringe on the rights of third parties, andaccepts no responsibility or liability in this regard. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group,1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. A new growthhorizon Improve fiscal policy,open markets, and investin human capital November 2023 Contents Acknowledgments vii Executive Summary1 Abbreviations11 1An Overview of Argentina’s Economic Performance 14 1.1. Growth has stalled141.2. Macroeconomic volatility, influenced by a procyclical fiscal policy, constrains growth201.3. Public policy constrains private investment, hindering growth261.4. Argentina has decoupled emissions from growth, but emissions intensity is a challenge371.5. Policy recommendations40References42 2Enhancing Trade Integration for Competitiveness and Growth44 2.1. Export performance is disappointing442.2. Trade costs and frictions limit Argentina’s export potential502.3. Towards a gradual process of trade integration612.4. Policy recommendations74References77 3Upgrading and Using Human Capital for Inclusive Growth83 3.1. The labor market is characterized by increasing levels of precariousness,low productivity, and modest skill levels833.2. The future of work is changing the demand for skills883.3. Argentina’s human capital needs to adapt to the changing world of work933.4. Policy recommendations105References110 4Biotechnology and Automobiles 4.1. Biotechnology: Driven by scientific excellence but constrained by an emerging skill mismatch1164.2. Automobiles: Long industrial tradition weakened by macroeconomic instabilityand distortive trade policy129References135 List of Figures Figure 1Argentina’s income is increasingly falling behind high-income economies2Figure 2High fiscal procyclicality is fueling macroeconomic volatility3Figure 3Argentina has one of the largest public sectors4Figure 4The number of exporters has declined since its peak in 20065Figure 5Argentina has lost market shares in international markets in all sectors (2012-19)6Figure 6Human capital is the most important component of Argentina’s total national wealth8Figure 1.1Argentina’s GDP is diverging from the highest-income countries…16Figure 1.3Argentina has seen the most years of recession in the world16Figure 1.2... and its growth dynamics are weaker than most peers