聚烯烃周报：PDH检修增加，盘面延续整理

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 中性：聚烯烃冲高回落，国际原油价格走强。聚烯烃供需两端变化不大，中天合创全厂检修，前期停车装置重启，开工维持中等偏下。丙烷价格亦走强，生产利润压缩，金能石化、巨正源周内检修，存量PDH装置检修数量增加，关注PDH开工情况。终端淡季下游需求维持弱势，需求支撑偏弱，库存维持小幅去库趋势。预计维持区间整理。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 核心观点 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 ■市场分析 石化库存74万吨，较上周去库5万吨。 基差方面，LL华东基差+0元/吨，PP华东基差-40元/吨。 联系人 生产利润及国内开工方面，丙烷价格亦走强，生产利润压缩，PDH开工走低。PE开工率83%（-3.3%），PP开工率82.8%（-3.2%），中天合创全厂检修，金能石化、巨正源周内检修，开工负荷下行。 杨露露0755-82790795yanglulu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03128371 进出口方面，PP进口窗口关闭，LL进口窗口盈亏平衡附近。 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com从业资格号：F03119179 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜厂开工率15%（+1%），包装膜开工率53%（0）；PP下游塑编开工率40%（0），BOPP开工率56%（+1%），注塑开工率44%（-2%）。需求仍处于淡季，采购力度预计维持偏弱。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 ■策略 建议暂观望。 ■风险 原油价格大幅波动，需求恢复不及预期。 目录 聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃检修计划................................................................................................................................................................................5聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................9聚烯烃进出口利润...........................................................................................................................................................................11聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................13聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................4图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................4图3:中国PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................5图4:中国油制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图5:中国煤制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图6:中国烷烃制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...............................................................................................................5图7:中国PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................5图8:中国油制PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图9:中国煤制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................6图10:中国PDH制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................6图11:聚烯烃周度开工预估|单位：%............................................................................................................................................6图12:PE开工率分工艺|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图13:PE开工率分品种|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图14:PP开工率分工艺|单位：%....................................................................................................................................................8图15:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................8图16:PE开工率|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................................8图17:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图18:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................9图19:PP开工率|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................................9图20:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨.............................................................