聚烯烃日报：检修装置增加，聚烯烃偏弱整理

策略摘要 研究院化工组 研究员 今日聚烯烃价格震荡，基本面仍一般，基差有所走强，下游采购意愿仍不强。LL标品开工率呈现下降趋势，而PE非标品开工率有所上升，PE开工率维持中等水平。受大型装置停车影响，PP开工率持续高位回落，受PDH制PP持续亏损影响，PP拉丝开工跌至较低水平，如近期有金能石化45万吨PDH装置，神华榆林30万吨煤制PP装置，山东京博40万吨油头装置等停车。库存总量整体压力不大，基本供需平衡，上游石化库与下游库存均维持低位，下游工厂生产订单并未明显好转。人民币持续贬值，聚烯烃进口成本提升，进口窗口关闭。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 库存方面，石化库存64万吨，相比前一日减少0.5万吨。 基差方面，LL华东基差在+50元/吨，PP华东基差在-50元/吨；下游订单恢复仍偏慢，交投一般。 生产利润及国内开工方面，上游成本小幅走低，原油制LL、油制PP生产利润小幅收窄。丙烷价格小幅回落，PDH制PP依然亏损，聚烯烃估值不高。 PE开工率维持中等水平，标品开工率呈现下降趋势，非标开工率有所上升。总PP开工率继续高位回落，PP拉丝的开工率处于低位。 进出口方面，人民币持续贬值，聚烯烃进口成本提升，PE、PP进口窗口依然关闭。 ■策略 （1）单边：观望。（2）跨期：无。 ■风险 原油价格波动，下游需求恢复情况，进口窗口的变化，人民币贬值风险。 目录 聚烯烃日度表格................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃进出口利润..........................................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................13 图表 表1:PE产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................4表2:PP产业链日度表格丨单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................5 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图4:PE开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................7图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................7图7:PP开工率|单位：%................................................................................................................................................................7图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................8图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................8图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图11:HD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图12:LD开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................8图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................8图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................9图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................9图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................9图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%...................................................................................................