Morning Brief

MarketResearch MorningBrief [June20th,2024] MorningBrief ZIMeng021‐38676442zimeng@gtjas.comS0880513120002 Contents TopRecommendations ●MacroResearch:UpdateReport ●RobotIndustry:UpdateReport ●HouseholdAppliancesSector:UpdateReport LatestReports ●Longking(600388):OW,TP@RMB18.10 ●Shenma(600810):OW,TP@RMB9.84 ●Waigaoqiao(600648):OW,TP@RMB11.83 SectorRatingsoftheMonthMarketStrategyWeeklyViewpoint 本报告内容译自同日发布的简体中文报告《国泰君安晨报》，报告观点及内容如有任何不一致的地方，一律以该简体中文版报告为准。 TopRecommendations MacroResearch:UpdateReport DespitetherecentmarketdiscussionsaboutPBoC’slargerpurchaseofTreasurybonds,wedonotregardsuchpurchaseas“Chinese‐versionQEorMMT”.Suchpurchaseshouldbeunderstoodfromtheperspectiveofthecoordinationbetweenfiscalpoliciesandmonetarypolicies. Thefiscal‐sidecentralbankcreditexpansionanddownplayedmonetaryquantitydemandforclosercooperationofmonetary‐sidemeasuressoastorealizelong‐termgoalsduringeconomictransformation.Suchtypicalmonetary‐sidemeasuresincludere‐lendingandinterestsubsidies.AndTreasurybondsareanotherimportanttoolforthecentralbanktomodulatemonetaryliquidityfortherealeconomy,whentheproportionoftheTreasurybondsoutstandingrisessharply. Theissuanceofultra‐long‐termspecialTreasurybondsmaycometruein2024Q2.ButPBoCmayresorttoconventionaltoolstocooperatewithinthequotaofannualTreasurybondissuance,whichshouldnotbeunderstoodas“quantitativeeasing”or“monetizationoffiscaldeficit”. RobotIndustry:UpdateReport MuskbelievesthatthepotentialmarketvalueofOptimusrobotinthefutureisashighasUSD25trn.AttheTesla’sshareholdersmeeting2024,Muskhadin‐depthcommunicationswiththeshareholdersaboutTesla’sfuture,technologicalinnovation,productplanningandpersonalroles.Atthemeeting,thelatestprogressoftheOptimusrobotswaspublicized:twoOptimusrobotswereoperatingautonomouslyattheFremontplant,removingbatteriesfromtheproductionlineandplacingthemintoshippingcontainers.MusksaidOptimuswouldbeveryprofitableforthecompany.Teslahasthecapacitytoproduceabout100mnOptimusrobotsayear.IfTeslahad10%ofthemarketshareandsoldeachrobotforUSD20,000,TeslacouldmakeUSD1trninprofitperyearatmassproduction.MuskalsomentionedinhisfinalsummarythathebelievedthepotentialmarketvalueofOptimusrobotsinthefuturetobeashighasUSD20trnormore. HouseholdAppliancesSector:UpdateReport Thefeaturedcompaniescompetentindistributionchannels,companyoperationandbigcustomerresourcesareabletosustainprofitgrowth.Tobespecific,theprofitsofthermoscupandsmartsofaproducersmayoutrunmarketexpectationsdespitethelowbusinessclimate,thankstocross‐bordersales.WerecommendMotoMotion(301061)andCayiVacuumContainer(301004). LatestReports Longking(600388):OW,TP@RMB18.10 [Rating:OW(Prv:OW);TP:RMB18.10(Prv:RMB18.10);MP:RMB11.85;Mkt‐Cap:RMB12811mn] TheCompanyannouncedthatitsplantosellgreen‐energyminingequpmentincluding“pure‐electricminingtruck”and“pure‐electricvehiclebatterychargingandexchangestation(includingconstructionandoperation)”toitscontrollingshareholderZijinMiningandZijingMining’ssubsidiaries. TheCompanyisnowundervaluedinstockprice.BusinesstransformationmayenabletheCompanytorealizebetter‐than‐expectedbusinessresults.WemaintainourforecastsoftheCompany’s2024‐2026netprofitofRMB1.414bn,1.705bnand2.107bn,andEPSofRMB1.31,1.58and1.95.WemaintaintargetpriceofRMB18.10and“Overweight”rating. Shenma(600810):OW,TP@RMB9.84 [Rating:OW(Prv:OW);TP:RMB9.84(Prv:RMB9.84);MP:RMB6.52;Mkt‐Cap:RMB6808mn] TheCompanyplanstosellitsequityinterestinthecarbonatecompany,andatthesametimetoterminateits“BisphenolA”project(phaseII)(240kt/y).TakingintoaccounttheequitysellandtheCompany’sbusinessstatus,wemaintainourforecastsoftheCompany’s2024‐2026EPSofRMB0.39,0.57and0.70.WithreferencetothevaluationsofcomparablecompaniesandtakingintoaccounttheCompany’sleadingpositioninNylon66industryandtheupstreamindustrialbarriers,wemaintainFY2024targetpriceofRMB9.84(2024PEof25.23x)and“Overweight”rating. Waigaoqiao(600648):OW,TP@RMB11.83 [Rating:OW(Prv:N/A);TP:RMB11.83(Prv:N/A);MP:RMB9.21;Mkt‐Cap:RMB10457mn] TheCompanyisthemaindeveloperandoperatorofShanghaiFreeTradeZone.Takingadvantageofitsgeographiclocation,theCompanyengagesinthelogistics,trade,professionalservicesandurbanrenewalbusinessesinWaigaoqiaoBondedZoneandWaigaoqiaoPortComprehensiveBoundedZone.TakingintoaccountboththeCompany’sbusinessdevelopmentandthecurrentindustrystatus,weforecasttheCompany’s2024‐2026EPSofRMB0.88(+7.9%yoy),0.90(+2.5%yoy)and0.97(+7.2% yoy).WesuggesttargetpriceofRMB11.83and“Overweight”rating. SectorRatingsoftheMonth RatingSector OW BuildingMaterials,ComprehensiveFinance,Insurance,CommercialBanking,Coal,Food&Drink, Pharmaceutical,RealEstate,MachineryManufacturing,Transportation,ConstructionEngineering,NonferrousMetals HouseholdAppliances,TransportationEquipment,MassMedia&Cultural,Agriculture,Textile& NT UWInformationTechnology,InformationScience Garments,Retailing,PowerEquipment,SocialServices,PublicUtilities,Iron&Steel Note:TheratingsabovearemadebyGTJAStrategyTeam,whichmaynotalwaysbeinlinewiththeopinionsofGTJAindustryanalystsduetodifferentemphasesandtimerangeswhentheseratingsaremade. MarketStrategyW