Morning Brief

MarketResearch MorningBrief [January22nd,2024] MorningBrief HUANGYanming021‐38676036huangyanming@gtjas.comS0880512090001 Contents TopRecommendations ●MacroResearch:UpdateReport ●A‐ShareMarketStrategy:UpdateReport ●Active(Passive)AssetAllocation:SpecialReport ●ChinaRailway(601390):OW,TP@RMB11.50 LatestReports ●TuopuGroup(601689):OW,TP@RMB86.13 ●TSMC(TSM.US):OW,TP@USD143.00 ●Songyuan(300893):OW,TP@RMB37.20↑ ●CMShekou(001979):OW,TP@RMB22.05 ●TFCCommunication(300394):OW,TP@RMB131.50 ●Greatstar(002444):OW,TP@RMB31.71 ●ZJLD(6979.HK):OW,TP@HKD10.70↓ ●GanfengLithium(002460):OW,TP@RMB59.13↓ ●LiNing(2331.HK):OW ●Yizumi(300415):OW,TP@RMB22.89 SectorRatingsoftheMonthMarketStrategyWeeklyViewpoint 本报告内容译自同日发布的简体中文报告《国泰君安晨报》，报告观点及内容如有任何不一致的地方，一律以该简体中文版报告为准。 TopRecommendations MacroResearch:UpdateReport NowistheseasonofregionalNPCandCPPCC. 1)Asanimportantforward‐lookingobservationwindowfortheNPCandCPPCC,theregionalNPCandCPPCCin2024needtofocusontwoaspects.First,howtoseteconomicgrowthtargetsunderfinancingrestrictions.Second,howtoimplementthe“ThreeMajorProjects”designatedbythecentralgovernmentattheregionallevel. 2)AslearnedfromthecitieswheretheirregionalNPCandCPPCCwereover,ithasbecomeageneraltrendtolowerGDPgrowthtargets,butnotforhigh‐leveragedareas.Someregions(likeInnerMongolia)usedindustrialinvestmenttoreplaceinfrastructureinvestment.Someregions(likeChongqing)loweredfixedinvestmentorretailsalestargetsbutmaintainedGDPgrowthtargets,leavingagaptofill. 3)Themunicipalgovernmentsofmetropolitansweremorespecificintheirgoalsforthe“ThreeMajorProjects”.Somecitiesaddedquantitativeindicatorsforsocialsecurityhousingconstructionandspentmoreonsocialsecurityhousingconstruction,buttheremightberelativelysmallnumberof“urbanvillagerenovation”projectsand“dual‐use”publicinfrastructureprojects. A‐ShareMarketStrategy:UpdateReport Sincethebeginningof2024,thankstocontinuedfiscalexpendituresandthelaunchoftrillionsofadditionaltreasurybonds,interbankmarketliquidityhasremainedstableonthewhole,andthenetlendingoflargebankshasbeenatahighlevel.Butthestratifiedfrictionsofinter‐bankliquidityexistatthesametime,non‐bankfinancingcostisstillhigh. Themethodologyof"upstreamsetsdirectionandmidstreamsetsprice"canbetterexplainthecoexistenceofmonetaryeasingandstratificationin2024:thenetlendingoflargebanksisatahighlevel,whichdeterminestheoveralleasingofinter‐bankliquidity.However,atthesametime,thecoreexcessreservesofthecommercialbankingsystemarelowandthefinancingcapacityofmonetaryfundshasdeclinedsignificantly,makingthefinancingcostofnon‐bankinstitutionshigh.Thestratificationoffundsmaybecomethenormin2024. Active(Passive)AssetAllocation:SpecialReport FortheinvestorswhoholdequityassetsinIndia,wemakethefollowingsuggestions.Firstofall,stressonthevalueofmonopolyfranchisesundertheIndianplutocrats.Second,giveprioritytotheinvestmentsinplutocrat‐affiliatedlistedcompaniesengagedininfrastructureconstructionoremergingindustries.Finally,investintheIndianstockindicesthatcanindirectlyshareinIndia’sdemographicdividendandoligopolyprofits. ChinaRailway(601390):OW,TP@RMB11.50 [Rating:OW(Prv:OW);TP:RMB11.50(Prv:RMB11.50);MP:RMB5.65;Mkt‐Cap:RMB139850mn] TheCompanydisclosedthatitsnewcontractvaluerose2.2%yoyin2023,ofwhich,thenewcontractvaluerose23.7%qoqin2023Q4.OnJan18,2024,NDRCurgedthegovernmenttoleadandexpandeffectiveinvestment.WeforecasttheCompany’s2023‐2025EPSofRM1.37(+8%yoy),1.55(+13%yoy)and1.74(+12%yoy).WemaintaintargetpriceofRMB11.5(2024PEof7.4x)and“Overweight”rating. LatestReports TuopuGroup(601689):OW,TP@RMB86.13 [Rating:OW(Prv:OW);TP:RMB86.13(Prv:RMB86.13);MP:RMB58.18;Mkt‐Cap:RMB64117mn] TheCompany’s2023Q4resultswereinlinewithexpectation.Takingintoaccountthedownstreamdemandandthemassproductionofnewproducts,wemaintainourforecastsoftheCompany’s2023‐2025EPSofRMB1.98,2.61and3.52.Inviewofthehigh‐techelectricdrivenewbusinessandthecustomerresourcesoftheCompany,wesuggest2024PEof33x(higherthansectoraverage)andmaintaintargetpriceofRMB86.13.“Overweight”ratingmaintained. TSMC(TSM.US):OW,TP@USD143.00 InviewoftheboomingdemandfromAIandtherevivalofindustrialdemand,weslightlyraiseourforecastsoftheCompany’sFY2024E‐FY2026ErevenuetoTWD2,710.7bn(from2,610.4bn),3,256.7bn(from3,087.7bn)and3,784.1bn,andnetprofittoTWD1,036.7bn(from985.3bn),1,302.3bn(from1,213.4bn)and1,655.3bn.WemaintaintargetpriceofUSD143and“Overweight”rating. Songyuan(300893):OW,TP@RMB37.20↑ [Rating:OW(Prv:OW);TP:RMB37.20(Prv:RMB34.56);MP:RMB28.94;Mkt‐Cap:RMB6529mn] TheCompany’s2023Q4resultswerebetterexpectation.Inviewoftherecoveryofdownstreamdemandandtherisingproductioncapacitiesofnewproducts,weraiseourforecastsoftheCompany’s2023‐2025EPStoRMB0.89(+0.09),1.24(+0.16)and 1.59(+0.12).Takingintoaccountofthehighentrybarriersandtheimportsubstitutionpotential,wesuggest2024PEof30x(higherthansectoraverage)andraisethecorrespondingtargetpriceby8%toRMB37.2.“Overweight”ratingmaintained. CMShekou(001979):OW,TP@RMB22.05 [Rating:OW(Prv:OW);TP:RMB22.05(Prv:RMB22.05);MP:RMB8.43;Mkt‐Cap:RMB76383mn] TheCompanyisenteringaturnaroundofbusinessresults,afterlayi