钢矿周报：铁水筑顶，螺纹表需超预期下滑，短期回调

期货研究报告 2024年6月2日 商品研究 报告内容摘要: 走势评级：螺纹钢——震荡铁矿石——震荡偏弱 铁矿：铁水筑顶，港库压力凸显，短期回调 供给宽松：本期45港到货量环比回落，相比往年依然处于同比高位，供给整体宽松。 需求边际走弱：铁水产量筑顶，连续两周下降，需求拉动边际走弱。 刘开友—黑色研究员从业资格证号：F03087895投资咨询证号：Z0019509联系电话：0571-28132535邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 厂库下降，港库增加：钢厂维持低库存策略，港口库存继续增加，库存压力凸显。 螺纹：表需超预期下滑，短期回调，看支撑 张亦宁—黑色研究员从业资格证号：F3084599联系电话：0571-28132578邮箱：zhangyining1@cindasc.com 供给回升：螺纹产量缓慢回升，高炉继续复产，电炉产量基本持稳。表需超预期下滑：螺纹表观消费量超预期大幅下降，“淡季不淡”被证伪。库存降幅收敛：螺纹钢厂库存基本持平，社会库存降幅收敛，去库放缓。 策略建议： 铁矿：产业层面，铁矿供增需降，港口压力凸显。板块宏观情绪退潮，铁矿供需结构走弱，短期延续回调。 螺纹：产业层面，螺纹供增需降，供需结构走弱，上游库存持平，中下游去库放缓。板块宏观情绪退潮，叠加需求超预期下滑，螺纹短期面临调整，下方支撑位3600-3650。中期看，低估值+宏观利好预期，建议等待逢低多机会。 风险提示：政策力度 信达期货有限公司CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼邮编：311200 目录 一、铁矿石：...........................................................................................................31、价格..........................................................................................................32、供给..........................................................................................................33、需求..........................................................................................................44、库存..........................................................................................................55、比价..........................................................................................................6二、螺纹钢：...........................................................................................................71、价格..........................................................................................................72、供给..........................................................................................................73、需求..........................................................................................................84、库存..........................................................................................................95、比价........................................................................................................10图目录 图1：铁矿石现货价格..................................................................................................................................3图2：铁矿石期货主力价格...........................................................................................................................3图3：全球铁矿石发运量...............................................................................................................................3图4：澳大利亚19港铁矿石发运量...............................................................................................................3图5：巴西19港铁矿石发运量......................................................................................................................3图6：非主流矿铁矿石发运量........................................................................................................................3图7：我国45港铁矿石到货量......................................................................................................................4图8：我国45港铁矿船舶到港量..................................................................................................................4图9：我国45港铁矿石疏港量......................................................................................................................4图10：247家钢企日均铁水产量...................................................................................................................4图11：247家钢企进口矿日均消耗量............................................................................................................4图12：247家钢企高炉产能利用率...............................................................................................................4图13：中国主要港口铁矿石日成交量...........................................................................................................4图14：247家钢企进口铁矿库存...................................................................................................................5图15：247家钢企进口铁矿库存消费比........................................................................................................5图16：我国45港进口铁矿库存....................................................................................................................5图17：我国45港巴西铁矿库存....................................................................................................................5图18：我国45港澳大利亚铁矿库存.............................................................................................................6图19：铁矿主力基差....................................................................................................................................6图20：铁矿主力-次主力月差........................................................................................................................6图21：螺矿比...............................................................................................................................................6图22：PB粉即期合约现货落地利润.............................................................................................................6图23：螺纹钢现货价格.........................