港股策略月度数据观察（2024年4月）：18000点，熊牛转换的分水岭

港股策略月度数据观察(2024年4月) 18000点，熊牛转换的分水岭 过去一个月香港股市走强，恒生指数、国企指数和恒生科技指数上涨3-5%不等。恒生综合行业指数中，资讯科技、原材料、能源、电讯和金融表现最佳，上涨4-10%。医疗保健、综合企业、地产建筑和非必需性消费表现最差，下跌1-3%。本月迄今，资讯科技、原材料、能源和金融板块表现最佳，上涨5-8%，而医疗保健、非必需性消费和地产建筑表现最差，下跌1-2%。 工 业 运 输 ：BDI环 比下 跌16%， 同 比 上 升17%。SCFI环比上涨2%，同比上涨71%，而CCFI环比下跌5%，同比上涨26%。 赵文利(852) 3911 8279cliffzhao@ccbintl.com 汽车和消费电子显示复苏迹象，而消费则有所降温： 汽车：中国乘用车零售量同比增速从2月份的-20%上升至3月份的6%。中国汽车总体库存指数从2月份的1.74下降至3月份的1.56，仍超过1.50的警戒线。 根据RRG分析，过去12个月多数恒生综合行业指数呈现出较为明显的轮动趋势。目前，非必需性消费、能源、原材料是走强的主导行业。金融、综合企业和电讯行业处于疲软象限。必需性消费、地产建筑业处于落后象限，而医疗保健、资讯科技、工业和公用事业则处于改进象限。本月迄今，原材料和工业的RS动量出现了1.6百分点和1.1个百分点的大幅积极变化，而电讯、金融以及资讯科技的该指标大幅下降，为0.3-0.6个百分点。 邹炜(852) 3911 8246wilsonzou@ccbintl.com 消费：3月份中国消费者信心指数环比持平，同比下降6%。中国零售额同比增速从2月份的7.4%下降至3月份的3.1%，其中餐饮服务下降至7%。 零售和批发：3月份迄今中国网上零售额同比增速放缓至12%，其中实物商品增长12%。 资讯科技：2024年第一季度，全球智能手机出货量保持7.7%的增长，而中国智能手机出货量同比增长5.9%。SOX环比下降7.5%，同比增长50.5%。2月 份 全 球 半 导 体 出 货 量环 比 下 降3.1%，但同比增长16.3%。 恒指目前市净率仍然低于1倍，同时股息率仍维持在4.1%的历史相对高位。目前各行业的估值仍然非常低。在20个主要行业中，有15个行业的市盈率低于5年平均预期市盈率，其中传媒的市盈率低于5年平均水平1.3个标准差，而原材料和电讯的市盈率则高于5年平均市盈率。 上周恒生指数成功突破了17000点，并开始上攻18000点，而18000点整数关口大约是250天移动平均线（又称牛熊线）附近。对于近期港股的快速上涨，我们将其归因于：（1）外资对中国经济和中港股票的风险回报看法改善（港股熊市尾声的预期强化，韧性增强）；（2）中国证监会五项惠港措施改善政策预期（表明中央强化香港作为国际金融中心的决心和态度）；（3）南下资金加速流入，对港股的支持进一步增强（年初截至4月24日累计净流入2044亿元，占去年全年的64%）；（4）对中国货币政策创新工具的讨论升温令市场憧憬中国式QE。我们认为18000点是熊牛转换的重要分水岭，虽然短期内有技术性回调压力，但2季度内若政策面和基本面配合，很有可能会突破并站稳18000点，继续推荐杠铃配置策略，逐步转向成长股。 沪深港通活跃个股中，腾讯创下近一个月南向净买入最高，股价上涨了17%。继过去两个月的强劲表现后，中国移动再次录得高额净买入。盈富基金为上月净卖出最高，股价上涨5%。 由于地缘政治风险上升，除少量黑色金属之外，上游大部分指标全线加速上涨： 能源和原材料：布伦特原油和WTI环比分别上涨2%和1%。黄金、铜、铝、镍以及锂等大部分有色金属价格环比明显上涨。热轧钢材、螺纹钢等黑色金属价格下跌幅度减缓。 工 业 工 程 ：2月 份 中 国 挖 掘 机 销 量 环 比 增 长98%，同比下降2%，国内市场好于出口。 CCBI Securities | ResearchHKEquityStrategy Data Monitor (Apr2024) 18000, the threshold of the bear-to-bull market transition The Hong Kong stock market continued tobreakthroughin the past month as the HSI, HSCEI, andHSTECHrose 3-5%.Among the major industryindexes of the HSCI, information, materials, energy,telecommunications and financials were the topperformers, rising 4-10%. Healthcare, conglomerates,properties & construction, and consumer discretionarywere the main laggards, falling 1-3%. Month-to-date, information, materials, energy, and financialswere the top performers, up 5-8%, while healthcare,consumer discretionary, and property & constructionwere the top laggards, having fallen 1-2%. Industrial engineering: China excavator salesvolume was up 98% MoM/down 2% YoY in Mar,with the domestic market far better than theexport market. Cliff Zhao (852) 3911 8279cliffzhao@ccbintl.com Industrialtransportation:The BDI was down16% MoM and up 17% YoY. The SCFI was up 2%MoM and 71% YoY while CCFI was down 5%MoM and up 26% YoY. Automobilesand consumer electronics showedsigns of recovery while consumption cooled. Automobiles:China PV retail sales volume YoYgrowth rose from-20% in Feb to 6% in Mar. TheChina Auto Overall Inventory Index fell from1.74 in Feb to 1.56 in Mar, still exceeding thewarning level of 1.50. Wilson Zou According to RRG analysis,the major industryindexes of the HSCI have shown a relatively clearrotational trend over the past 12 months. At present,leading industries–consumer discretionary, energy,and materials–are still gathering strength.Financials,conglomerates, and telecommunications are in theweakeningquadrant;consumerstaplesandproperty & construction are in the lagging quadrant,while healthcare, information, industrials, and utilitiesarein the improving quadrant.Month-to-date,materials andenergysaw a large positive changeinRS-momentum of 1.7 and 0.8ppt,whereasconglomerates, financials,property & constructionand healthcare saw major declines in this indicatorin the 0.2-0.8ppt range. (852) 3911 8246wilsonzou@ccbintl.com Consumer: The China Consumer ConfidenceIndex was flat MoM and down 6% YoY in Mar.China retail sales value YoY growth was downfrom 7.4% in Feb to 3.1% in Mar, with cateringservices down to 7%. Retail & wholesale: YTD China online retail salesYoY growth in Mar slowed to 12%, with physicalgoods growth up 12%. Information:Global smartphone shipmentsmaintainedgrowth of 7.7%while Chinasmartphoneshipment growth was up 5.9% YoYin 1Q 2024. The SOX fell 7.5% MoM with a YoYincrease of 50.5%. Worldwide semiconductorshipments fell 3.1% MoM but rose 16.3% YoY inFeb. The P/B ratio of the HSI was still below 1x whiledividend yield was at a relative historical high of4.1%. Current valuations across sectors remain verylow. Among the 20 major sectors, 15 traded belowtheir five-year average forward P/E. Media tradedat around1.3standard deviations below its five-yearaverage, while materials and telecommunicationstraded above their five-year average P/E. The HSI succeeded in breaking through 17000 lastweek. It is now soaring towards18000,approximatelyatthe 250ma mark (a.k.a. the bull-bear line). Weattributethe recent surge to(1)improved risk-reward perception of the Chinese economy andmarketby foreign capital;(2)positive policyexpectations due to, ”CSRC's 5 Cap