港股策略月度数据观察（2024年5月）：盘整来临，等待政策持续利好和基本面继续改善

港股策略月度数据观察(2024年5月) 盘整来临，等待政策持续利好和基本面继续改善 过去一个月香港股市进一步突破，恒生指数、国企指数和恒生科技指数上涨7-9%不等。恒生综合行业指数中，地产建筑业、金融、工业和原材料表现最佳，上涨10-14%。必需性消费、非必需性消费、医疗保健和电讯表现最差，上涨0-4%。本月迄今，公用事业、工业、金融和地产建筑业板块表现最佳，上涨7-9%，而必需性消费、非必需性消费和医疗保健表现最差，均下跌2%。 工 业 工 程 ：4月 份 中 国 挖 掘 机 销 量 环 比 下 降25%，同比持平，国内市场远好于出口市场。 赵文利(852) 3911 8279cliffzhao@ccbintl.com 工业运输：BDI环比上涨1%，同比上涨39%。SCFI环比上涨30%，同比上涨156%，CCFI环比上涨10%，同比上涨40%。 乘用车销量再次放缓，但新能源汽车仍保持快速增长，消费依然疲软： 汽车：中国乘用车零售量同比增速从3月的6%下降至4月的-6%，新能源汽车零售量同比增速从3月的31%小幅下降至4月的29%。中国汽车总体库存指数从3月的1.56上升4月份升至1.70，仍超过1.50的警戒线。 根据RRG分析，过去12个月多数恒生综合行业指数呈现出较为明显的轮动趋势。目前，能源和原材料是走强的主导行业。金融、综合企业和电讯行业处于疲软象限。必需性消费、非必需性消费、医疗保健和地产建筑业处于落后象限，而资讯科技、工业和公用事业则处于改进象限。本月迄今，原材料、工业和公用事业的RS动量出现了1.0百分点的大幅积极变化，而非必需性消费和医疗保健的该指标大幅下降，为0.6-0.8个百分点。 邹炜(852) 3911 8246wilsonzou@ccbintl.com 消费：4月份中国消费者信心指数环比持平，同比上升3%。中国零售额同比增速从3月份的3.1%下降至4月份的2.3%，其中餐饮服务下降至4%。 恒指市盈率修复至9倍，正触及10倍；市净率也反弹到1倍以上。在近期快速上涨之后，更多行业的估值现已高于五年平均水平。但在20个主要行业中，仍有13个行业的市盈率低于5年平均预期市盈率，其中传媒和消费必需品的市盈率低于5年平均水平1.2个标准差，而原材料和电讯的市盈率则高于5年平均市盈率1个标准差。 零售和批发：4月份迄今中国网上零售额同比增速放缓至12%，其中实物商品增速降至11%。 资讯科技：3月份中国手机出货量同比放缓至7%。由于芯片 巨头再次 展现 出非常强劲 的业绩，SOX环比上涨14%，同比上涨61%。3月份全球半导体出货量环比下降1%，但同比增长15%。 沪深港通活跃个股中，银行近期受到资金青睐。中国银 行 创 近 一 个月 南 向 净 买入最 高 纪 录 ， 股价 上 涨12%。美团上月净卖出最高，股价上涨3%。 港股近期快速上涨，迎来技术性牛市。历史上看，出现技术性牛市后继续上涨可能性较大，后续指数平均上涨空间超过70%，我们对于后市保持正面乐观。由于近期港股上涨趋势较猛，短期内已经看到一些回调压力，预计近期港股将会在18,500-20,000之间整固。未来需要政策持续利好，特别是7月份召开的三中全会，和基本面不断改善的配合才能支撑港股三季度继续冲高至20,000点以上。继续推荐杠铃配置策略，逐步转向成长股，尤其是互联网、科技、消费及制造业出海龙头。 上游指标表现好坏参半，石油和天然气下跌，而金属和煤炭上涨。： 能源和原材料：布伦特原油和WTI环比下跌8%。包括黄金、铜、铝、镍在内的大多数有色金属继上个月大幅上涨后继续上涨。中国煤炭和黑色金属（包括中国热轧钢材和螺纹钢）价格出现月度上涨。 CCBI Securities | ResearchHKEquity Strategy Data Monitor (May2024) Correction imminent, awaiting policies and fundamentals catalysts The Hong Kong stock market made furthergainsin the past month as the HSI, HSCEI, and HSTECHrose 7-9%. Among the major industry indexes oftheHSCI,property&construction,financials,industrials andmaterials were the topperformers,rising10-14%.Consumerstaples,consumerdiscretionary,healthcare andtelecommunicationswere the main laggards, rising 0-4%. Month-to-date,utilities, industrials,financials andproperty &constructionwere the top performers, rising 7-9%,whileconsumer staples,consumer discretionary,andhealthcarewere the top laggards, all havingfallen 2%. Industrial engineering: China excavator salesvolume was down 25% MoM/flat YoY in Apr,with the domestic market far better than theexport market. Cliff Zhao (852) 3911 8279cliffzhao@ccbintl.com Industrialtransportation:The BDI was up1%MoM and up 39% YoY. The SCFI was up30%MoM and 156% YoY while CCFI was up10%MoM and 40% YoY. PV sales slowed again but NEV sustainedrapidgrowth. Consumption remained weak. Automobiles:China PV retail sales volumeYoY growth fell from 6% in Mar to-6% in AprwhileNEV retail sales volume YoY growthdipped from 31% in Mar to 29% in Apr.TheChina Auto Overall Inventory Index rose from1.56 in Mar to 1.70 in Apr, still above thewarning level of 1.50. Wilson Zou (852) 3911 8246wilsonzou@ccbintl.com According to RRG analysis,the major industryindexes of the HSCI have shown a relatively clearrotationaltrend over the past 12 months.Atpresent, leading industries–energy and materials–arestillgatheringstrength.Financials,conglomerates, and telecommunications are in theweakening quadrant;consumer staples,consumerdiscretionary,healthcare,andproperty&construction are in the lagging quadrant, whileinformation,industrials,and utilities are in theimprovingquadrant.Month-to-date,materials,industrials and utilities saw a large positive changeinRS-momentum of 1.0,whereas consumerdiscretionary andhealthcare saw major declines inthis indicator in the 0.6-0.8ppt range. Consumer: The China Consumer ConfidenceIndex was flat MoM and up 3% YoY in Apr.China retail sales value YoY growth was downfrom 3.1% in Mar to 2.3% in Apr, with cateringservices down to 4.0%. Retail & wholesale: YTD China online retailsales YoY growth in Apr slowed to 12%, withphysical goods growth down to 11%. The P/E ratio of the HSI recovered 9x, reaching 10x.Meanwhile, the P/B ratio rebounded above 1x.More sectors are now trading above their five-yearaveragevaluations after the recent surge butamong the 20 major sectors, 13 are still tradingbelow their five-year average forward P/Es. Mediaandconsumer staples traded at around a 1.2standard deviation below their five-year averages,while materials and telecommunications tradedaround1.0 standard deviation above their five-year average P/Es. Information:MarChinamobilephoneshipments slowed to 7% YoY.The SOX rose14%MoM with a YoY increase of 61% as chipmakersonce again posted a very strongresult.Worldwide semiconductor shipmentsfell 1%MoM but rose 15% YoY in Mar. The Hong Kong market has surged, technicallyentering a bull market. Historically, there is a highpossibilityof continued growth whenever theindex shows an over 70% return after a technicalbull market develops. We believe this is reason tobe optimistic about the Hong Kong market. Therecent uptick in the mark