港股策略月度数据观察（2024年6月）：聚焦二十届三中全会和中报季。

港股策略月度数据观察(2024年6月) 聚焦二十届三中全会和中报季。 过去一个月香港股市有所回撤，恒生指数、国企指数和恒生科技指数下跌2-3%不等。恒生综合行业指数中，能源和电讯表现最佳，上涨6%和1%。地产建筑业、必需性消费和综合企业表现最差，下滑7-11%。本月迄今，资讯科技、能源和公用事业表现最佳，上涨1-3%，而地产建筑业、必需性消费、原材料和非必需性消费表现最差，下跌4-6%。 工业运输：BDI环比上涨10%，同比增长59%；SCFI环比上涨29%，同比增长276%；CCFI环比上涨32%，同比增长99%。 赵文利(852) 3911 8279cliffzhao@ccbintl.com 乘用车销量回升，新能源汽车渗透率创50%左右的历史新高，房地产、消费等均缓慢回暖： 汽车：5月，中国乘用车零售量同比增速由-6%升至-2%，中国新能源汽车零售量同比增速由29%升至39%，中国新能源汽车渗透率进一步由44%升至47%，中国汽车总库存指数由1.70降至1.44，三个月来首次跌破1.50的警戒线。 根据RRG分析，能源和原材料是持续走强的领先行业。资讯科技在短期内失去动力，而公用事业继续走强，准备进入领先象限。本月迄今，工业和公用事业的RS动量出现了1.4百分点的大幅积极变化，而医疗保健和非必需性消费的该指标大幅下降，为1.0-1.2个百分点。 邹炜(852) 3911 8246wilsonzou@ccbintl.com 地产：今年迄今，中国房屋新开工面积同比增速收窄至-24.3%，连续35个月保持负增长，竣工面积同比增速转强至-20.1%。中国房屋销售量和销售面积同比增速转强至-28.4%和-21.1%。 空头正在积聚力量。近一个月恒指成分股被卖空股数及平均卖空成交额占总成交额比例均呈上升趋势。过去一个月，20个行业中9个行业的年度预测每股收益均有所上调。在20个主要行业中，仍有13个行业的市盈率低于5年平均预期市盈率，其中零售和批发-必需性和必需消费品的市盈率低于5年平均水平1.4个标准差，而原材料和电讯的市盈率则高于5年平均市盈率1.7和1.1个标准差。 消费：5月中国消费者信心指数环比和同比持平。中国社会消费品零售总额同比增长从4月的2.3%上升至5月的3.1%，其中餐饮服务增长5.0%。今年5月，中国网上零售额同比增长12%，其中实物商品零售额同比增长12%。 资讯科技：4月中国手机出货量同比增长12%，SOX环比上涨3%，同比增长53%。4月全球半导体出货量环比上涨4%，同比增长19%。 沪深港通活跃个股中，银行继续受到青睐。中国移动是过去一个月南向净买入最多的股票，其股价上涨了1%；盈富基金是过去一个月净卖出最多的股票，其股价下跌了2%。 过去一个月市场呈下跌趋势，等待着政策催化剂。我们认为盘整可能会持续但增量政策仍有发力空间，陆家嘴论坛利好强调积极创造条件吸引更多中长期资金进入资本市场，促进资本市场高质量发展。即将于7月15号召开的二十届三中全会预计会重点研究进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化问题。我们认为短期大盘可能在17,500-18,000点之间震荡，3季度有望重新开启反弹行情。 上游指标表现好坏参半，石油和天然气价格上涨而金属价格下跌： 能源和原材料：布伦特原油和WTI原油环比上涨5%，黄金、铜、铝、镍、锂等多数有色金属在上月上涨后扭转下跌，中国热轧钢材和螺纹钢等黑色金属价格环比下跌。 工业工程：基建呈现回暖迹象，5月中国挖掘机销量环比收窄至-5%，同比增长6%，其中国内市场销量同比增长29%，出口同比下降9%。 CCBI Securities | ResearchHKEquity Strategy Data Monitor (Jun 2024) Focus on the Third Plenary Session andinterim earnings season The Hong Kong stock market retreated over thepast month as the HSI, HSCEI, and HSTECH declined2-3%. Among the major industry indexes of theHSCI, energy andtelecommunicationswere the topperformers, rising 6% and 1%. Property & construction,consumerstaples, and conglomerates were themainlaggards, declining 7-11%.Month-to-date,information,energy,and utilities were the topperformers,rising 1-3%.Property&construction,consumer staples, materials and consumer discretionarywere the top laggards,falling 4-6%. Industrialtransportation:The BDI was up10%MoM and up 59% YoY while the SCFI wasup 29% MoM and 276% YoY. Finally, the CCFIwas up 32% MoM and up 99% YoY. PV sales rebounded and NEV penetration recordedahistorical high of around 50%.Property andconsumption both showed some improvement. Automobiles:In May,China PV retail salesvolume YoY growth rose from-6% to-2%.ChinaNEV retail sales volume YoY growth rose from29% to 39%.China NEV penetration increasedfrom44%to 47%.The China Auto OverallInventory Index declined from 1.70 to 1.44 inMay, coming to rest below the warning levelof 1.50 for the first time in three months. According to RRG analysis, energy and materialsare still the leading industries gathering strength.Though information is losing momentum, utilities isgaining and on the verge of entering the leadingquadrant.Month-to-date, industrials and utilities sawa large positive changes in RS-momentum of 1.4,whereashealthcare and consumer discretionaryunderwent steep declines in the 1.0-1.2ppt range. Property:YTD, China housing floor space startsYoYgrowth strengthened to-24.3%,whilemaintaining negative growth for 35 consecutivemonths. Floor space completed YoY growthimproved to-20.1%. China housing amountsoldand floor space sold YoY growthimproved to-28.4% and-21.1%. The number of HSI constituent shares being shortedand the average proportion of short-sellingturnover-to-total turnover trended up over the past month.Estimated current year EPS for 9 out of 20 sectors roseover the past month. Among the 20 major sectors,13 are still trading below their five-year averageforwardP/Es.Retail&wholesale-staples andconsumer staples traded at around a1.4 standarddeviationbelow their five-year averages,whilematerials and telecommunications traded at arounda1.7 and 1.1 standard deviation above their five-year average P/Es. Consumer:The China Consumer ConfidenceIndex was flat MoM and YoY in May. Chinaretail sales value YoY growth was up from 2.3%in Apr to 3.1% in May, with catering services upto5.0%.YTD China online retail sales YoYgrowth in May grew to 12%. Online physicalgoods growth rose to 12%. AmongSH/SZ-HK Stock Connect active stocks,banking continued to be favored. China Mobilerecorded the highest southbound net buying overthe past month, with a 1% increase in its shareprice.Tracker Fund of Hong Kong saw the highestnet selling over the last month, with a 2% decline intheshare price. Information: Apr China mobile phone shipmentsaccelerated to 12% YoY in May.The SOX rose3% MoM and 53% YoY. Worldwide semiconductorshipmentsrose 4% MoM and 19% YoY in Apr. TheHong Kong market,still awaiting policycatalysts, trended down over the past month. Webelieve consolidation may continue and there isstillroom for incremental policies to excite themarket. The last policy tailwind was the LujiazuiForum