2024 年全球和区域食品工业展望

Global FoodIndustry Outlook2024/2025 Production is growing and consumer pricesare decreasing, but challenges remain Our Trade Sector Experts The Americas:Selma RossatoTeam Leader of Atradius Risk Services Our basic need to eat underpins the food and beverageindustry, insulating it against some of difficulties facedby sectors trading in non-essential goods. This is not tosay that the industry is totally protected against economicdownturns. Demand for luxuries and non-essential foodand drink items decreased last year as consumers triedto balance household budgets against the costs of highinflation and increases in their interest rate payments. Selma is Team Leader of Risk Services in Brazil, where her expertise extends across mostindustries. Based in São Paulo, she began her career with Atradius as a credit manager andhas been working in Risk Services for Atradius since 2008. Selma has more than 20 years’experience in the Brazilian credit insurance market. Asia-Pacific:Shane Tan Associate Senior Underwriter at Atradius Asia Shane is Associate Senior Underwriter at Atradius Asia, a position he has held since 2021.Based in Singapore, he is currently responsible for the Food, ICT, Rubber and ScientificInstrument sectors in Singapore, Malaysia and Philippines. Prior to Atradius, Shane workedas Credit Manager in the Credit Operations department of Daimler Financial Services. Thisposition included underwriting construction buyers, project management andmanagement reporting. Most indicators suggest the worst is now behind us,with disinflation in the coming months likely to resultin a decrease in input costs for producers and foodprices for consumers. However, the industry’s growthjourney is unlikely to be smooth. Geopolitical and climaterisks threaten to slow industry growth, especially inthe segments and geographies that are most exposed. Europe:Yoann GublinDeputy Industry Leader of Agriculture, Retail and Services Yoann is Deputy Industry Leader of Agriculture, Retail and Services, based in Paris.His expertise includes a particular focus on the agriculture and agrifood sectors in France.Yoann joined Atradius in 2014, working initially as a Senior Underwriter specialising inAgriculture, Food, Chemicals and Textiles, before he was appointed Deputy Industry Leaderof Agriculture, Retail and Services in 2020. What is the global outlook for the food and beverages industry? Growth predictions for the food and drink industry are notoriously tricky, withunpredictable weather conditions disrupting even the most cautiously craftedoutlook. With that disclaimer in mind, we anticipate global food and beveragesproduction to increase 3.2% this year, followed by 3.3% in 2025. Food prices forconsumers are expected to ease, although this is likely to be gentle. Contents What is the regional outlook for food and beveragesperformance? The Americas That said, until recently US inflation has remained stubbornlyhigh, despite the interventions of the Federal Reserve. Theresulting effect is higher food prices for longer, with tightmargins for retailers as they increasingly rely on promotionsas they compete for customers. Clouding the outlook are El Niño, the war in Ukraine, theIsrael-Hamas conflict and the Houthi attacks on containerships in the Red Sea corridor. global food prices will stay above 2019 levels. Cost driversinclude the high levels of energy prices, transport and labourcosts, and elevated loan costs. North America Selma Rossato is a Team Leader of Atradius Risk Servicesin São Paulo, Brazil. Looking at the the North Americanfood market she says: “Following nearly four years ofsignificant economic disruption led by the COVID-19pandemic and followed by supply chain challenges,labour shortages and a period of severe inflation, thereare signs the North American food and beverage marketmay be returning to a more stable environment.” In addition, the geopolitical conflicts could cause marketinstability especially if they lead to energy and foodprice shocks. This could raise input costs for producersand result in food price inflation for consumers. El Niño usually lasts around a year and typically causes hot,dry weather across Asia and Australia while bringing heavier-than-normal rainfall to the southern U.S. and southernSouth America. Poor harvests or interrupted suppliescould put pressure on prices. Despite the recent decrease, What’s more the disruptive effects of El Niño are likely toimpact 2024 food production in the US, while labour, logisticsand financing costs have also increased. All this weighson the margins and profitability of businesses all along thefood supply chain in North America. The outlook for Mexicois fairly positive, with easing price pressures encouraginggreater consumer spending on food and non-alcoholic drinks. South America South America is a leading global supplier of fruits andvegetables, supplying about a quarter of global exports inagricultural and fisheries products. Selma note