图表系列 139 ： 尽管施工薄弱 ， 但 3 月挖掘机的销售有所改善

Chart book series #139: Mar excavatorsales improved despite weakconstruction 11 April 2024 A better consumption recovery during Qingming holidayBoth number of tourists and tourism revenue(112% and 113% of 2019 level,Exhibit 6) GEM EconomicsAsia | China came in at above pre-Covid level during the Qingming holiday (Apr 4-6). The implied per-capita tourism spending has also surpassed the pre-Covid level for the first time,suggesting a resilient recovery in services consumption. Box office revenue also roseduring Qingming holiday (Exhibit 7). For means of travel, highway and railway saw abetter recovery in passenger volume (Exhibit 5). According to CAAC, scheduledinternational flights in China is expected to retore to 85% of 2019's level in the next sixmonths, higher than the current recovery ratio of sub-70% (Exhibit 4). Benson WuChina & Korea EconomistMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 5047benson.wu@bofa.com Helen QiaoChina & Asia EconomistMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 3961helen.qiao@bofa.com Domestic excavator sales improved in March According to CCMA,monthly domestic excavator sales increased to 15,188 units (+9.3%yoy), the highest level in 2 years. This is usually a leading indicator for constructiondemand, and to be a key to watch if the sales improvement can be sustained. That said,both rebar and coal consumption edged down sequentially (Exhibit 9&Exhibit 10), whilecement shipment ratio inched down amid weakened demand negatively impacted byrainy weather in the past week (Exhibit 8). China Container freight index trended downfurther last week (Exhibit 12). LGSB issuance pace remained below par level (Exhibit 13). Abbreviations: NBS: National Bureau of Statistics IPP: Independent power plants CPCA: China Passenger Car Association Home sales weakened amid holiday New home sales in key citiesdipped during the Qingming holiday (Exhibit 14). While thatof secondary home sales also softened (Exhibit 15). That said, land auction pricepremium improved sequentially in the past weeks (Exhibit 16). LGSB: Local government special-purposed bond LNY: Lunar New Year Long-end treasury yield lower; CNY remained weakDomestic market liquidity remained largely stable (Exhibit 19), while both 10-year and OMO: Open market operations 30-year treasury bond yield inched down last week (Exhibit 17). USDCNY continued toremain weak at above 7.2 level with a strong daily fixing from the PBoC (Exhibit 18). PCR: Passenger Car Radial tires TBR: Truck, Bus and Radial tires Exhibit1:Domestic excavator salesAccording to CCMA, domestic excavator sales in Mar reached 15,188 units (or up 9.3% yoy), the highest CAAC:Civil Aviation Administration ofChina level since 2H22 CCMA:China Construction MachineryAssociation PBoC: People's Bank of China MPC: Monetary policy committee Related reports: China Watch:Chart book series #138:Inter-city mobility surged duringQingming holiday China Watch: Chart book series #137:Industrial revenue & fiscal spendingimproved in Jan-Feb BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuerscovered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 5 to 6.12680321 China Watch: Chart book series #136:Home prices dropped sequentially;LPR unchanged Timestamp: 11 April 2024 06:57AM EDT Mobility & Consumption Exhibit2:BaiduMigration indexInter-city tripsfellafterQingming holiday Daily subway in Tier 2& Tier 3 cities picked up in past week BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Exhibit5:Daily passenger volume during Qingming holidayPassenger volume during Qingming holiday exceeded pre-covid level, with railway (120.6% of 2019), highway (119.6% of 2019) seeing better recovery Exhibit6: Number of tourists and tourism revenue during holidaysTourism revenue has recovered to 113% of pre-Covid level during 2024 Exhibit7: Box office revenueBox office revenue rose sequentially, exceeding previous year’s level Qingming holiday Production, Logistic & LGSB Exhibit9: Daily coal consumptionat major IPPsCoal consumption at major IPPs trended down sequentially Exhibit8: Weekly average rebar apparent consumptionRebar consumption edged down last week and stayed below par level Exhibit10: Cement shipment ratioCement shipmentfell slightly amid weak demand during rainy weather Operation rate of TBR fell marginally last week while that of PCR ticked up Source:Wind, Note: data as of Apr 4 Exhibit12: Shanghai container freight index (SCFI) & China containerfreight index (CCFI)CCFI trended down last week, while SCFI remained roughly stable Property & Financial market Exhibit14: Property transaction in 30 major citiesNew home sales dipped during Qingming holiday Secondary home sales started to recover after Qingming holiday Source:Wind, Note: Red dots indicate Lunar