Morning Brief

MarketResearch MorningBrief [February26th,2024] MorningBrief HUANGYanming021‐38676036huangyanming@gtjas.comS0880512090001 Contents TopRecommendations ●MacroResearch:FourPointsAboutHouseholdExpectations ●A‐ShareStrategyWeekly:WinterOver,SpringStillThere ●RealEstateSector:UpdateReport ●ComputerSector:UpdateReport ●Active(Passive)AssetAllocation:JPStocks LatestReports ●XgimiTech(688696):OW,TP@RMB98.50 ●Novoray(688300):OW,TP@RMB56.43↑ ●SunshineGuojianPharma(688336):OW,TP@RMB30.96 ●LuckinCoffee(LKNCY):OW ●CICTMobile(688387):OW,TP@RMB10.82 ●ShijiaPhotons(688313):OW,TP@RMB12.50 ●NVIDIA(NVDA.US):OW,TP@USD892.00↑ ●Supor(002032):OW,TP@RMB63.50↑ ●ZelgenBiopharma(688266):OW,TP@RMB60.39 ●Jiumaojiu(9922.HK):OW SectorRatingsoftheMonthMarketStrategyWeeklyViewpoint 本报告内容译自同日发布的简体中文报告《国泰君安晨报》，报告观点及内容如有任何不一致的地方，一律以该简体中文版报告为准。 TopRecommendations MacroResearch:FourPointsAboutHouseholdExpectations 1.GrowthofConsumerExpenditures.Consumerservicesandmassconsumergoodsarethemajordriverofconsumerexpenditures,ofwhich,tourismandcateringexpenditureswillgrowmuchfaster.Ofalltherespondentsofourquestionnaire,42.7%and51.6%anticipatehugerexpendituresonconsumerservicesandmassconsumergoods. 2.ExcessSavings.Theexitofexcesssavingswillbelimited,andtheirmajoroutletisfinancialassets.Morethan60%oftherespondentssaythattheywillnotreducetheexistingsavings,forthecauseofriskprevention.Therespondentswhoarewillingtoreducesavingswillmainlyusethesavingsforfinancialassetspurchaseandconsumption,andfewforhomepurchase. 3.IncomeExpectationandEmployment.20.64%oftherespondentsanticipateconstantincomeand23.84%anticipatesomeincreaseofincomein2024.Besides,thejobopportunitiesarelowerthanexpectation. 4.HomeandStockMarketsExpectations.Thehomepurchasewillingnessremainslowin2024.Mostoftherespondentsalreadyholdrealestateassets,andareworriedabouthomepricesandtheirincomeinfuture.Themajorityofrespondentsanticipatestockmarkettogoupin2024,butmostofthemexpectasmallrise. A‐ShareStrategyWeekly:WinterOver,SpringStillThere Winterwasoverandspringisstillthere.InourpreviousweeklyreportdatedonFebruary18,wesaidthata“tradingbottom”hadcomeintobeenandtheshort‐termmarketreboundmightcontinue.Thisweek,ShanghaiCompositerosetoabove3,000ptaftercontinuedmarketriseforeighttradingdaysinarow,betterthanmarketexpectations.Likewehadanticipated,themarketnadirbeforetheLunarNewYearhasbeenconfirmedtobethebottomofthelatestmarketsetbacks.BeforetheNPCandCPPCCthisMarch,A‐sharemarketmayremainstablemostofthetimeandisstillpossibleoffurtherrise,intermsoftheoptimisticpolicyexpectationsofnewstockmarketcomers,theexistenceofmarketstabilizersandtheregulatorypressureontheshortside.However,becausethemarketexpectationsareyettomoveupwiththestockindices,themarketbottomhastobetestedandconsolidatedforsometime,andlargerinvestmentopportunitiesandswitchofinvestmentstylemaynotappearuntilmid‐2024. Investmentstyleswillrotatebetween“valueofvalue”and“growthofgrowth”.Becauseofmuchmorecomplicatedgeopolitical,economicandsocialenvironmentsnowadays,investorshavebecomemuchlessabletopredictthefuture,whichresultedinthefailureofmanytraditionalinvestmentstrategiesandtheemergenceofmanynewones.Theinvestorsoflowriskappetitepursuitsafetymarginsandfavorhigh‐dividendandfixed‐incomelow‐riskassetsfor“SafePremium”(i.e.“valueofvalue”).Incontrast,theinvestorsofhighriskappetitepursuitbusinesstransformationandgrowthandfavorhigh‐riskgrowthassetsfor“DreamPremium”(i.e. “growthofgrowth”.Inabsenceofessentialchangesofthecurrentstockpricingmechanism,investmentstylesareexpectedtorotatebetweenthetwoabove. Theattractivenessofhigh‐dividendstocksisgoingdown,andswitchofinvestmentstylemaytakeplaceinmid‐2024.Intheshortrun,high‐dividendstocksandscience‐techtheme‐relatedstockshavechanceoffurtherriseduringtheNPCandCPPCCperiod.Butthevaluationoflarge‐capvalueinvestmentstockshasrisentoitsaveragevalueplustwostandarddeviationshigh.Meanwhile,themarketpercentageoftheturnoverofCSIDividendisalreadyclosetoitsrecordhigh,toooverheatedforchasinghigh.Aftertheappearanceofthebottomofeconomicexpectations,policysupportandindustrialgrowthwillboosttheriseofscience‐techgrowthstocks.Theriseofgrowthstocksmaycometrueinmid‐2024,startingfromalternativeenergysectorandledbyscience‐techmanufacturingsectorthereafter. Asforinvestmentthemes,wepreferthoseinvolvedinequipmentreplacement,Chinesecomputingpower,new‐typeproductivities,andlow‐flyingeconomy.Indetail,werecommend(1)equipmentreplacement:industrialboilers,energy‐efficientelectricmotorsandresourcerecycling;(2)Chinesecomputingpower:opticalinterconnection,computingpowerchipsandHuaweiintelligentcomputingindustrialchain;(3)new‐typeproductivities:intelligentmanufacturingandnewmaterials;and(4)low‐flyingeconomy:low‐flyingaircraftmanufacturing,andcoresystem,partsandflyingserviceproviders. Majorrisks:longer‐than‐expecteddurationofhighinterestratesoverseas;globalgeopoliticaluncertainties. RealEstateSector:UpdateReport AlthoughtheanticipatedarrivalofinterestratecutcycleofU.S.andotherforeigncountriesisexpectedtostrengthenoverseasrealestatemarket,themarketseemsnolon